The weekly: Greece to default/restructure THIS weekend? thread

[Ed Breen]

It will not help them to leave the Euro. They need a medium of exchange. Return to the Drachma would be worse.
What they will have to do is default by not paying on their debt currently while using what revenue they have to deliver whatever government services and promises they can afford, but still stay on the Euro.

 

[PARACLESE]

Quote from Ed Breen:

Did you notice yesteday that the most valuable business in Greece, the Hellenic Coca-Cola Bottling company, announced that it was leaving Greece for a Swiss domicile and a listing on the London exchange. So, much for growth prospects in Greece, so much for increasing Greek revenue. This is a blow to the large labor force that was depending on collecting empty bottles for the deposit refunds. We witness the spectacle of rats fleeing a sinking ship.

you are right in some respects but the whole reason for greece getting in debt in the first place is to submit to the euro and eventually have all of its assets siezed for pennies on the dollar without one soldier shedding any blood on greek soil. we are in this mess because of papademos, papandreu and the global banking cabal, not because of the greek people. the greek people did what any other nation would do when their govts allow banks to create and enhance public spending and borrowing. Watch as the END movement of the wealthy greeks in canada who want to buyout the debt from the global creditors be shut down and silenced, because no one in the global elite wants to see greece really get out of debt. take a look at all of the FTT signers, you will realize they are the countries really screwed in this whole mess and all have duppy govts who answer up to the "technocrats" who only look to bleed this place dry. every economy other than bulgaria is up to their eyeballs in debt with 60% debt to gdp on the low end for economies like germany and uk and 100-120% for economies like greece, the euro has reached the point of no return. they will have no choice but to print the fuck out of the euro in order to keep the euro together, lol. eventually they will institute a new global currency in the name of stopping tax evasion, theft, terrorism financing, and out of control fluctuating exchange rates.

 

[Klemen]

Swidish Finance Minister expects Greece to exit Euro in 6 months... do yo think Greece will get out of its situation and keep Euro?

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/10/swedish-finance-minister-expects-greece.html

 

[Ed Breen]

Default is where Greece is and what has happened. What remains if or everyone to admit it. That is not a way out but it is where they are now. Exiting the Euro will not help them, it will hurt them even more. There is no legal way to throw a member out of the Monetary Union...there are of course political ways to encourage them to leave. It is better for Greece to remain on the Euro as there will be less chaos about the default and the unit of account will still function. They cannot solve their problem by going back to Drachma which would immediately collapse to become worthless adding to the misery.

 

[PARACLESE]

Quote from Ed Breen:

Default is where Greece is and what has happened. What remains if or everyone to admit it. That is not a way out but it is where they are now. Exiting the Euro will not help them, it will hurt them even more. There is no legal way to throw a member out of the Monetary Union...there are of course political ways to encourage them to leave. It is better for Greece to remain on the Euro as there will be less chaos about the default and the unit of account will still function. They cannot solve their problem by going back to Drachma which would immediately collapse to become worthless adding to the misery.

this is absolutely untrue, to the wildest extremities. If greece gets out of the euro and goes back to drachma it is now free to enter into bilateral agreements with other non euro nations. it regains its sovereignty. The drachma would get crushed this is true but the worst would really be at that point and can only get better from there because it no longer has to service a never ending and worthless debt obligation that was never theirs in the first place. I think you are watching too much tv, and listening to way too many pro euro economists speak about the situation to have an objective view of what the real implications would be. These are the same economists that said that the housing crisis in the us would never ever take place, abbey joe cohen types. you say no one will ever lend to greece if it leaves the euro? bullshit . the END network of greek financiers have hundreds of billions to help them should they leave or stay in the euro. if you look at what happened to iceland after they defaulted was not so bad. sure its a tenth the size of the greek economy but the implications would be similar, i think with better effects. greece is in a wonderful geographic area where if it applied an offshore style regime like dubai, panama, hong kong or bulgaria it would fucking thrive.

Greece is the gateway to europe and controls all of the mediteranean. many businesses that have gone offshore due to harsh and harmful tax practices by the regime would come back on shore and start many businesses, recapitalize banks and put the economy back on track. therefore, SIR, you are not looking at the big picture and severely narrow minded.

 

[PARACLESE]

Quote from Klemen:

Swidish Finance Minister expects Greece to exit Euro in 6 months... do yo think Greece will get out of its situation and keep Euro?

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/10/swedish-finance-minister-expects-greece.html

this is nice, because it gets everyone scratching their head and guessing at what is going to happen but one thing is certainly clear: greece will never be allowed to exit the euro regardless of the financial implications of keeping it within the euro. all of this speak is right, and brings up valid points but that this will come to pass is about 5% probable. they will keep greece in if it bleeds everyone dry. I am greek and live in greece and begging hoping and praying that this happens but without the proper leadership, greece will be doomed. the people are not capable of electing a proper leader as the case in the us and everywhere. what we need is a nigel farage to come and tear house, or a ron paul, but we dont have one. these leaders are all too scarce as the rest of the pack are easily bought off because they are cowards. they do not even deserve the title human and only amount to a slave or a canibal, or a barbarian.

 

[trefoil]

Quote from PARACLESE:

this is nice, because it gets everyone scratching their head and guessing at what is going to happen but one thing is certainly clear: greece will never be allowed to exit the euro regardless of the financial implications of keeping it within the euro. all of this speak is right, and brings up valid points but that this will come to pass is about 5% probable. they will keep greece in if it bleeds everyone dry. I am greek and live in greece and begging hoping and praying that this happens but without the proper leadership, greece will be doomed. the people are not capable of electing a proper leader as the case in the us and everywhere. what we need is a nigel farage to come and tear house, or a ron paul, but we dont have one. these leaders are all too scarce as the rest of the pack are easily bought off because they are cowards. they do not even deserve the title human and only amount to a slave or a canibal, or a barbarian.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2012/09/tax-evasion-greece

Blaming the political leaders is just scapegoating. The behavior of the independent professional class re their tax obligations is, bluntly, Third World, and the rest of Europe knows it.
Greece does need to leave the euro; indeed, the euro itself just needs to be blown up. That will still leave Greece with the problem that the only people who are paying the taxes they owe are the wage slaves.

 

[Ed Breen]

Paraclese, you don't understand what I wrote and you are dreaming about End money coming back to save the day. I said that Greece is in default, should declare default, and that everyone should admit it. They should stop borrowing money and pretending they are paying back debt with it. They should read Epicuris and bone up thier Stoicism. Of course this will mean they can't borrow any more money at cheap interest...but then again it has not been that cheap really, has it? This means that unemployment will get worse, the government payroll will shrink further, the pension obligaitons will not be met...only the most basic government services will be provided and people will have to fend for themselves. Understand that nothing I am saying can be understood as maintaining the status quo. Greece should stop paying interest on its accumulated debt and use all its revenues to provide what basic services and keep what promises it can keep to its own people. It should tell the Troika to shove it. But this does not require abandoning the Euro as a unit of account.

Defaulting and remaining on the Euro currency is still better than if you go back to the Drachma. When I say the Drachma will collapse I am talking a Weimar, Zimbabwean collapse. This pretense that you can paper over with the Drachma any better than you can by borrowing more money and pretending to pay it back is simply a denial, a failure to admit that you are broke.

The difference between Greece and Iceland is that Iceland refused to bankrupt the government and the people in order to save the Iceland banks creditors and European banks from having to write off thier debts. Greece, like Ireland, bankrupt the government and impoverished its people in order to postpone the bankruptcy of its banks and the realization of losses by the European banks. They should have just defaulted.

You overstate Greece's ability to recover however, they have very little to offer by way of export and you are dreaming if you think expatriaot Greek money will come back any time soon after a bottom appears.

 

[PARACLESE]

no. the political leaders are the same ones that have established tax evasion as the thing to do. this is why they make taxes so high on everyone else and feel it is now ok to keep money elsewhere. if the tax system were simplified and fixed at a flat low rate for everyone who does business IN greece no tax evasion would exist. if you understand the way the hk govt does business you would understand that their tax code is superior to the of the rest of the world and brings in retarded amounts of money into their coffers. just last year they brought in enough money to fund their budget for 17 years out. the political leaders are the problem. you know nothing about who all of these people are anyway. if you did you would understand why things are the way they are here. if you do business elsewhere and do not require greek courts why the hell should you pay taxes on that income? giving the government more money is not to making an economy better, never has and never will. it drives away business and smart people. only idiots and non productive people remain in that economy. to say otherwise is not being realistic. should a govt take care of its people and spend justly, no one would want to evade paying taxes except real assholes. but when politicians spend your money on rediculous matters, be they war for business ends or whatever why should they be entitled to your money? all they will do is create malinvestment and ask for more money because they "screwed up", bring in another retard only to do the same thing.

 

[PARACLESE]

Quote from Ed Breen:

Paraclese, you don't understand what I wrote and you are dreaming about End money coming back to save the day. I said that Greece is in default, should declare default, and that everyone should admit it. They should stop borrowing money and pretending they are paying back debt with it. They should read Epicuris and bone up thier Stoicism. Of course this will mean they can't borrow any more money at cheap interest...but then again it has not been that cheap really, has it? This means that unemployment will get worse, the government payroll will shrink further, the pension obligaitons will not be met...only the most basic government services will be provided and people will have to fend for themselves. Understand that nothing I am saying can be understood as maintaining the status quo. Greece should stop paying interest on its accumulated debt and use all its revenues to provide what basic services and keep what promises it can keep to its own people. It should tell the Troika to shove it. But this does not require abandoning the Euro as a unit of account.

Defaulting and remaining on the Euro currency is still better than if you go back to the Drachma. When I say the Drachma will collapse I am talking a Weimar, Zimbabwean collapse. This pretense that you can paper over with the Drachma any better than you can by borrowing more money and pretending to pay it back is simply a denial, a failure to admit that you are broke.

The difference between Greece and Iceland is that Iceland refused to bankrupt the government and the people in order to save the Iceland banks creditors and European banks from having to write off thier debts. Greece, like Ireland, bankrupt the government and impoverished its people in order to postpone the bankruptcy of its banks and the realization of losses by the European banks. They should have just defaulted.

You overstate Greece's ability to recover however, they have very little to offer by way of export and you are dreaming if you think expatriaot Greek money will come back any time soon after a bottom appears.

Bravo Ed Breen. my man. I think you are a little pessimistic about the greek people and the hellenic tradition. you underestimate us. its ok, you have reason to because of our recent history. I beg to differ about assets repatriating under the right regime but only time and circumstance will tell. about everything else we are spot on the same page. this is a controlled demolition of economies in the eu. we have politicians bearing greek names but hold no allegiance to the hellenic cause. what are we to do?