The weekly: Greece to default/restructure THIS weekend? thread

Quote from Ed Breen:
Martinghoul, you are spreading misinformation. There is no 'haircut' in the London Clearing House (LCH) move and there was no informal private then public disclosure...that is all crap.
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Huh? So how do you explain that all the mkt participants, including yours truly, heard of the coming changes yesterday afternoon, well ahead of the official announcement this morning? What the heck do you mean there is no haircut? You're not aware of the terminology used in the repo market for margin? Let me enlighten you... The sort of "margin/capital reserve" you're referring to is called "repo haircut" in the short-term funding mkt.
They, as the clearing house for the trades, simply raised the capital reserve for dealers margin accounts on trading Italian debt...which was a predicted and prudent move as the spread between Italian debt and German debt exceeded 4.5%...It was known for days that if the spread reached that level the LCH would have to raise margin requirements and so they did. It was predictible to anyone who understood these markets. It is ridiculous and misleading to call that adjustment 'shenanigans.'
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LCH.Clearnet (along w/CCG) is (among other things) a repo clearing house. They have raised haircuts on Italian repo trades that clear through them. It was not "known" that they will do as their stated criteria include, but are not limited to, the yield spread (includes sov CDS levels, ironically). Finally, it's not 4.5% over German debt, but rather a spread to a basket of AAA Eurozone sovereigns (France, Holland, Germany, etc).
A 50 basis point reduction from the ECB would not help the PIIGS because it will do noting to make there debt attractive...but it will be good for the dollar and then after the margin calls, for gold.
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Anything will help the PIIGS.

Generally, could you pls refrain from telling me things about my mkt that you clearly don't know and understand all that well?
 
OK, I acknowledge that you have understanding, even if that is not immediately clear in the way you write. Still your perjorative use of 'shananigans' and the implied manipulation in comment is not justified. Margins should be increased on Italian Debt and its derivatives.

As far as public private...anyone watching CNBC would have understood the likelihood of a margin increase.

The only thing that will help the PIIGS is a plan for growth...more debt does not solve any problem. Austerity is not a plan for growth; its a result of not having a plan for growth.
 
Quote from Ed Breen:
OK, I acknowledge that you have understanding, even if that is not immediately clear in the way you write. Still your perjorative use of 'shananigans' and the implied manipulation in comment is not justified. Margins should be increased on Italian Debt and its derivatives.
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I insist on my use of the word "shenanigans". I believe you may see FSA complaints on this in the not so distant future. Whether it's what should or should not happen is irrelevant. What happened is.
As far as public private...anyone watching CNBC would have understood the likelihood of a margin increase.

The only thing that will help the PIIGS is a plan for growth...more debt does not solve any problem. Austerity is not a plan for growth; its a result of not having a plan for growth.
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I disagree... What will help PIIGS is austerity, a credible plan for growth plus low rates for a long time, as the intra-European iimbalances are allowed to correct.
 
Quote from Martinghoul:

I disagree... What will help PIIGS is austerity, a credible plan for growth plus low rates for a long time, as the intra-European iimbalances are allowed to correct.
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I'm inclined to agree with that.

More to the point, austerity is going to happen no matter what, so better it be done in an intentional, somewhat controlled manner than as a cataclysmic "who, me?" surprise.
 
Quote from Random.Capital:

I'm inclined to agree with that.

More to the point, austerity is going to happen no matter what, so better it be done in an intentional, somewhat controlled manner than as a cataclysmic "who, me?" surprise.
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Contrary to popular belief a lot of Europeaners would actually welcome an external intervention on their economy as they have witnessed their elected politicians either can't solve it or won't solve it cause they are too linked with their pressure groups, or just too corrupt.
 
Quote from Random.Capital:
8.36% as I type this one day later...

Amazing stuff.
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That's the change on day and it's stale. Currently, the yield on the 3M BOTS is arnd 5.8% (although it's anyone's guess how real of a mid this is).
 
Quote from Martinghoul:

That's the change on day and it's stale. Currently, the yield on the 3M BOTS is arnd 5.8% (although it's anyone's guess how real of a mid this is).
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Yeah, thanks for catching that - I realized my mis-reading and attempted to blow away the errant posting. :)
 
Quote from Random.Capital:
Yeah, thanks for catching that - I realized my mis-reading and attempted to blow away the errant posting. :)
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Haha, I seem to have caught you mid-blow, so to speak :).
 
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Greece’s budget deficit in the first 10 months of the year widened 11 percent to 20.1 billion euros from 18.1 billion euros a year earlier, according to preliminary figures received by e- mail from the Finance Ministry in Athens yesterday. The figure is in line with a target of 20.4 billion euros, it said.
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WTF?! Widened? As in, got worse? WTF?! We keep hearing about their terrible gut wrenching austerity yet they cannot even toe the line - they have to spend more than ever? That's like saying you are on a diet yet you set new records for beer and deep dish pizza consumption. "Well, I was growing my consumption by a pizza and a case every week, but last week I only ate half a pizza and drank a 12 pack more than the previous week. Hey, I am working on it!"

LMAO.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...-in-greek-parliament-to-save-euro-status.html
 
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