The weekly: Greece to default/restructure THIS weekend? thread

Quote from bond_trad3r:

Has Greece defaulted yet? What's taking so long?
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The Europeans keep giving them money. Sooner or later they'll get tired of that and we'll get the restructure. Current speculation is about a 40% haircut. But who knows how the negotiations will play out.
 
Quote from DT-waw:

yield at 98% now.

hey german taxpayers! are you happy to pay that interest to banking mafia? and giving a free lunch to greeks so they can be more lazy and more drunk?
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Yep, bloomberg confirmed and CDS are exploding...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GGGB1YR:IND

http://www.cnbc.com/id/38451750

I like trading 6E but I might just hang out for awhile and see what shakes out... I liked JPM in the low 30's but now I may hope for 16-20 and just hedge the meager holdings I have left.

I hate looking at options right now though, vol is way out of hand. But I don't want to get entirely out of my positions either. Curious to see how others are positioning themselves.
 
Also from Bloomberg:

Venizelos, who on Sept. 6 promised to speed austerity measures pledged in return for the emergency loans, said yesterday the situation was “critical” and that the next two months would be “decisive for our existence.”

The government must draft a credible 2012 budget, proceed with state asset sales and complete a voluntary debt swap by the end of October, he said.

Speculation of a Greek default is aimed at the euro and it must be countered if the region is to stop the spread of the debt crisis, Venizelos said yesterday in Thessaloniki. “If the euro zone can’t solve the Greek problem, it will show that it can’t solve its own.” ....

Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said Sept. 9 Greece may have to leave the euro if it fails to press ahead with its budget-cutting plans. The comments echoed remarks by Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte this week that countries breaking the region’s budget rules should face expulsion.

Germany’s Schaeuble reiterated that Greece must fulfil the conditions laid down in its adjustment program to get the next tranche of international aid due this month.

“There can be no doubt” that the two are linked, Schaeuble told reporters in Marseille. “Everybody must stand by the agreements.”
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There are deadlines to be met now, not in 2014.


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...lt-as-resistance-to-more-aid-intensifies.html


The Greeks are very unhappy and the Germans are very unhappy with only the bankers and politicians wanting to keep Greece in the Euro.

I think the market is right, this ship is going to sink.

Higher alcohol taxes, property surcharges? lol, this ought to be rich
 
1yr bond yield: 127%


money making machine.
greeks must pay over 100% a year to repay old debt.
but they'll never actually pay it back, only the amount of debt rises ad infinitum.

when it will reach 100x of the amount debt in 2002, german and french banks will say to its citizens: we must tax you, to give money to the greeks or directly to the banks, so we the financial brains can book 100% returns on brilliant loans and pocket bonuses for the board, directors.

thank you for understanding.
 
Quote from Happy Hopping:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=CGGB1U5:IND

5.895%
VALUE: 3,600.055 USD


I just want to clarify, when the above link said value: 3,600.055 USD, it means the cost to insure $50M of Greece debt is US$3.6 Million dollar?
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No, it means that you need to pay 36% per annum of the notional you want to "insure", and this is for a maturity of 5y (Bloomberg doesn't know yet how to deal with upfront+running but can't blame them as market participants change the way they quote all the time).

In the real world, no one will agree for you to pay on a running basis only. At the moment (as in today), if you want to insure 5y Greek debt, you will need to pay 58% of your notional upfront, and 5% per annum.
 
Quote from DT-waw:

1yr bond yield: 127%


money making machine.
greeks must pay over 100% a year to repay old debt.
...

thank you for understanding.
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No, it means the 1 year has fallen to the point where it now yields 127%. The Greek gov't, assuming it pays this back, will pay it back at the original rate on the original issue, whatever that was. You, if you buy this today, would receive 127% at the price currently being offered.

Thank you for understanding.

(Isn't this place supposed to be Elite? Sheesh.)
 
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