The weekly: Greece to default/restructure THIS weekend? thread

order to shrink the public sector, the government has announced plans to merge existing agencies, abolish others and put tens of thousands of employees on a "reserve" status at 60 percent of their pay.

why doesn't the greek government furlough workers to a 3 day week instead of putting them on reserve?
 
Quote from jo0477:

You're mis-reading the quote. $5286 is in thousands and the underlying value to insure is 10 million. So right now it would cost roughly 5.3 mil to insure 10 mil of Greek debt for 5 years. :eek:
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thanks for the reply. If greece goes w/ a partial default, would the people who underwrite these CDS still have to honor it? any1 knows what's in the fine print?
 
Quote from Happy Hopping:
thanks for the reply. If greece goes w/ a partial default, would the people who underwrite these CDS still have to honor it? any1 knows what's in the fine print?
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Nobody knows and that's why sov CDS is such a sh1t product. It's probably not going to trigger. At least those are the indications so far.
 
Quote from Martinghoul:

That they ultimately integrate... With or without Greece, but Greece is a special case. I think it's important to recall that the US has gone through this and managed to make it. Obviously, there are some differences, but still.
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Do you think the leaders will bother to let their people vote on the issue before they proceed with the integration?

I don't think the case Greece is so unique. It is just the extreme at one side of a spectrum, just next to Portugal, Ireland, Spain, Italy, Belgium..

I think you need to face reality that your Euro dream is over, and the only way you can sustain it is through force, against the will of the majority. I'm not sure if that's what you're implying?

Maybe I'm wrong and they'll hold new refendums in each of the separate nation states to "integrate", and the people in each nation vote in favour, but I doubt it...
 
Quote from benwm:
Do you think the leaders will bother to let their people vote on the issue before they proceed with the integration?

I don't think the case Greece is so unique. It is just the extreme at one side of a spectrum, just next to Portugal, Ireland, Spain, Italy, Belgium..

I think you need to face reality that your Euro dream is over, and the only way you can sustain it is through force, against the will of the majority. I'm not sure if that's what you're implying?

Maybe I'm wrong and they'll hold new refendums in each of the separate nation states to "integrate", and the people in each nation vote in favour, but I doubt it...
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It's not my Euro dream, as I don't live in the Eurozone.

I am not sure whether there will be referenda on the subject in the various EU countries. In general, if you look at the history of the various Eurozone initiatives, quite a lot of them have been approved or rejected by a referendum. So the process is actually quite a bit more democratic than a whole bunch of other countries. There was a rumor that Greece will have a referendum on whether to remain in the Euro, but it's been denied.

The problem with the Euro isn't that the majority doesn't want it. Obviously, an overwhelming majority of Ma's and Pa's across the Eurozone want to stay with the EUR. The problem is that they have bought into the idea of the EUR, because they thought it was free. As it turned out, it was like an option ARM on steroids, free for the first 10 years or so, but with massive back-loaded costs for everyone involved. So now, after experiencing the first good 10 years, you finally get the sticker shock and have to decide whether to keep it or not. But make no mistake about it, everyone did enjoy the good 10y, not just the Greeks.

What the people of Europe will collectively decide to do, I don't know.
 
Quote from Martinghoul:

It's not my Euro dream, as I don't live in the Eurozone.
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Fair enough - I assumed you lived in London for some reason..

I just think there is a decoupling between what the political elite such as Merkel, Sarkozy, Van Rumpuy, etc want and what the majority of people living in Europe want.

Most people don't (or didn't) understand that sharing a common Euro currency (which many favour) does not really work without the fiscal aspects and requirements to redistribute wealth between the nations.

I don't think the German people (not talking about Merkel here) will stand for paying taxes to the Greeks, and yet the Greeks and other PIIGS expect that, or rather demand that. Hence the crux.

I tend to think the Euro as a currency will continue in some form, don't know if it will be a weak Euro (Germany pull out) or a strong one (Greece pulls out), but I don't think its sustainable in it current form. Who really knows what will happen? I'm pretty sure Merkel and Sarkozy don't! They're just not up to the task of finding solutions.

I'm not a Keynesian but you do need a Keynesian type character, a person of intellect and will to dig out some solutions and forge some kind of path that is acceptable to the citizens of Europe, not just the political establishment in Brussels and others with vested interests.
 
Quote from benwm:

Fair enough - I assumed you lived in London for some reason..

I just think there is a decoupling between what the political elite such as Merkel, Sarkozy, Van Rumpuy, etc want and what the majority of people living in Europe want.

Most people don't (or didn't) understand that sharing a common Euro currency (which many favour) does not really work without the fiscal aspects and requirements to redistribute wealth between the nations.

I don't think the German people (not talking about Merkel here) will stand for paying taxes to the Greeks, and yet the Greeks and other PIIGS expect that, or rather demand that. Hence the crux.

I tend to think the Euro as a currency will continue in some form, but don't know if it will be a weak Euro (Germany pull out) or a strong one (Greece pulls out), but I don't think its sustainable in it current form. Who really knows what will happen? I'm pretty sure Merkel and Sarkozy don't! They're just not up to the task of finding solutions.

I'm not a Keynesian but you do need a Keynesian type character, a person of intellect and will to dig out some solutions and forge some kind of path that is acceptable to the citizens of Europe, not just the political establishment in Brussels and others with vested interests.
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UK is not in the Eurozone.....:D but i bet Martin wishes it was
 
Quote from Grandluxe:

UK is not in the Eurozone.....:D
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We're not? Could have fooled me. Maybe I should stop worrying about Merkel and Sarkozy then...

Edit: Or maybe not... :(
 
Quote from benwm:
Fair enough - I assumed you lived in London for some reason..

I just think there is a decoupling between what the political elite such as Merkel, Sarkozy, Van Rumpuy, etc want and what the majority of people living in Europe want.

Most people don't (or didn't) understand that sharing a common Euro currency (which many favour) does not really work without the fiscal aspects and requirements to redistribute wealth between the nations.

I don't think the German people (not talking about Merkel here) will stand for paying taxes to the Greeks, and yet the Greeks and other PIIGS expect that, or rather demand that. Hence the crux.

I tend to think the Euro as a currency will continue in some form, but don't know if it will be a weak Euro (Germany pull out) or a strong one (Greece pulls out), but I don't think its sustainable in it current form. Who really knows what will happen? I'm pretty sure Merkel and Sarkozy don't! They're just not up to the task of finding solutions.

I'm not a Keynesian but you do need a Keynesian type character, a person of intellect and will to dig out some solutions and forge some kind of path that is acceptable to the citizens of Europe, not just the political establishment in Brussels and others with vested interests.
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I do live in London, but, last time I looked, UK wasn't part of the EMU.

The problem with people is that everyone wants to have their cake and eat it too. So everyone in the Eurozone, including, I assure you, the Germans, wants the Euro, with all its benefits. However, they also want it to work perfectly and have none of the flaws. That's just a doomed pipe dream.

Ultimately, everyone needs to realize that the Euro is a political construct, first and foremost. If you want the expected political benefits that the Euro brings (eventually), you gots to pay. If you choose not to pay, then everyone should feel free to go their separate way.
 
Quote from Martinghoul:


Ultimately, everyone needs to realize that the Euro is a political construct, first and foremost. If you want the expected political benefits that the Euro brings (eventually), you gots to pay. If you choose not to pay, then everyone should feel free to go their separate way.
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Of course, I know you also think there should be greater fiscal union, but nobody agreed to this when they signed up to the Euro, and that is a big step don't you think?

Maybe a lot of people in Germany and central Europe might feel this is a price to pay for long term peace and prosperity. But they need to get the chance to vote on it, at the very least.

Call me a cynic, but I don't think Van Rumpuy really thinks along those lines. The whole European project just feels so...
undemocratic...

But then maybe that's what Europeans want, now that the Chinese version of state capitalism is the model we all want to copy
:D :D
 
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