Quote from makloda:
Is this the Efficient Weather Hypothesis?
Thank you! I was hoping... Yes, and it never rains. Because if there were rain, it would have already happened by now so there can't be any excess.
You are using an out of date browser. It may not display this or other websites correctly.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
The weather is completely random
- Thread starter Smart Money
- Start date
Thank you! I was hoping... Yes, and it never rains. Because if there were rain, it would have already happened by now so there can't be any excess.
Quote from 4444CJones4444:
No. They couldn't. I'd like to know who came up with that idea, and why people keep perpetuating the myth without questioning it. Just like numbers, we can string together letters for an infinity. The myth assumes the monkeys would eventually type every possible outcome which, just like counting to infinity, is not possible. A universe full of 10 to the 60th power of monkeys could type for a 10 to the 100th power of years and still be no closer to typing an infinite amount of possibilities.
I really was wondering where the quote began, so I did a search. Apparently it started here: Ãmile Borelâs essay â âMécanique Statistique et Irréversibilitéâ I remember Borel sets and algebra from my old textbooks but haven't thought about it much since then, and I remember some of his work on game theory. Now I wonder what sort of qualifiers were in the original work and if the quote was taken out of context.
I'm starting to think a room full of monkeys typing for an infinite amount of years still wouldn't touch on every subject found on Wiki.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Infinite_monkey_theorem_in_popular_culture
Come on man...no monkey could live that long. Think next time! But if monkeys could live that long, there would be instances where you'd get all of Shakespeare's works except for a single typo and that would be demoralizing because then you'd find yourself in that situation where you're just waiting around some more. Me?...I'd just grab the white-out and keep it all on the Q.T.
Quote from tradezorro:
FWIW, quite some time ago (at least 30 years by now) there was an interesting challenge/contest related to predicting the weather. It turns out that one of the best ways to predict the weather is to just say that tomorrows weather is going to be like todays. If only the markets were so easy.
You may not be aware of the degree of wisdom you just spoke. You effectively said that the trend is your friend. And you can make money that way in the markets. Do what has (mostly) been working until it stops working...then figure out what is now (mostly) working again.
I know a guy who can predict the weather. He can make some good money from it. Tho he doesn't try to predict what the weather like in a day, but he does bet on snow in winter. He got a snowplow and is making money every year up here in Canada.
Why not bet on the obvious and forget about the daily fluctuation?
Why not bet on the obvious and forget about the daily fluctuation?