Quote from BLR:
No long position in the Euro today, I decided to keep my head out of the cement mixer and wait for the bottom to put in here.
For discussion I will offer the following: my target low has been revised upward from 1784 to the 1800 level (spot). I think we will see this low before we begin to move higher. If it is not reached I will wait out the move until we get above and hold the 1865 area.
In the dollar we have overhead we have resistance in the 90.73-75 area and... it was not taken out today. This failure has occurred after a couple attempts at this level and I think it indicates the buck is running out of steam here. Maybe just wishful thinking but have a look at the chart.
Just for interest, the COT figures will be out tomorrow and it will be interesting to see if the funds are increasing or easing off their long positions in the dollar. Last week they taking on more long positions.
The funds must have some concern about the Yen carry trade which seems to be falling apart in slow motion. When it begins to unwind in earnest, we should see some significant moves.
My trading plan at present is geared toward the long side only with an upside target of 12650 in the intermediate term. That represents the 50% retracement of the December 04 to Nov 05 decline.
As always, I appreciate any comments.
Good trading.
