The View Down River

Quote from downrivertrader:


Give a man a fish he eats for a day, teach a man to fish he eats for a lifetime [/B]
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How true! Definitely not looking for the buffet - but food for thought - now THAT wets my appetite. Suggestion appreciatively embraced!
 
Hi Lorenzo:

I would be of the view that the Euro does have some downside but, it is very limited in nature before it begins to move up.

One thing for your consideration.

As you know, the top of this market occurred on Dec 30/04 at 1.3667 (all spot pricing here).

The first correction carried us down to 1.2731 on Feb 7/05 followed by a move up ending in what I have marked as a Wave 2 at 1.3481 on May 11/05

This is where I think the downward trendline (marking the tops of each move) should begin.

The next top was Wave 4 on Sept 2, 05 at 1.2589. This is second point of the trend line.

If this is used as your reference point, then the market has recently broken above the trendline on about January 3. This is the initial indication that the market is moving higher and the downtrend has been exhausted.

It is only one indication, however is often a significant trend change signal.

I have attached a chart with just this simple trend line outlined.

In the short term I agree that the market may go a little lower before the uptrend begins. However, the downside does not offer enough of a move to make it worthwhile for me to consider a short position.

I look forward to your comments.

Good luck.
 

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Quote from BLR:

Hi Lorenzo:

I would be of the view that the Euro does have some downside but, it is very limited in nature before it begins to move up.

One thing for your consideration.

As you know, the top of this market occurred on Dec 30/04 at 1.3667 (all spot pricing here).

The first correction carried us down to 1.2731 on Feb 7/05 followed by a move up ending in what I have marked as a Wave 2 at 1.3481 on May 11/05

This is where I think the downward trendline (marking the tops of each move) should begin.

The next top was Wave 4 on Sept 2, 05 at 1.2589. This is second point of the trend line.

If this is used as your reference point, then the market has recently broken above the trendline on about January 3. This is the initial indication that the market is moving higher and the downtrend has been exhausted.

It is only one indication, however is often a significant trend change signal.

I have attached a chart with just this simple trend line outlined.

In the short term I agree that the market may go a little lower before the uptrend begins. However, the downside does not offer enough of a move to make it worthwhile for me to consider a short position.

I look forward to your comments.

Good luck.
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after several months spent reading on ET many threads like this i'm very glad to have joined this discussion, even if i can't always explain my thoughts as i wish. i also think that more time is needed in order to understand my objective. i want to exploit this occasion to state that i'm a 1figure hunter. when i look at the charts i always try to see an opportunity to get into more than a figure movement, in order to be able to take out 1figure profit for me.
i see that we've got 5 lows around 1860 and i'm sure this could be a great buy opportunity, but i'll wait for some further more sign of strenght because of the downside favour on daily chart.
on friday 17th after those strange movements in the €/$, i read that many traders on an italian forum were looking at possible targets above 1.20, as i read it i wrote (may be even on this forum, i don't remember) about the opportunity to sell the strenght between 1950 and 2000, then waiting for a retest of the bottom to buy around 1860. in other words: sideways pattern.
looking at the hourly chart we've got 2 weeks between 1850 and 1980 so this week would lead to a breakout. i think that if it'll be on the upside there will be a lot of room to go through (read 2100 at least) as many of you are saying since last friday. what i would add is that there also be the occasion to enter long somewhere few pips above 1900, lowering the risk of a downside spike that would trigger a tight stop of a long position taken around 1860.
ciao;)
 
Lorenzo:

I think the plan you have is sound and I wish to good luck.

I believe as well that this week will mark a turning point in the Euro at least in the intermediate term.

Should be an interesting week.
 
Lorenzo:

I think the plan you have is sound and I wish to good luck.

I believe as well that this week will mark a turning point in the Euro at least in the intermediate term.

Should be an interesting week.
 
thank you BLR.
moved the stop @1894 and the profit @1770.
if it continue to goes down with this momentum i'll look forward to have an opportunity to enter short with another half position on the pull back @1850, but it's too early for these considerations at the moment ...
ciao;)
 
I am still Long and not budging. My view has not changed. If I get out I will let you know.


I am still Long at 1930 and 1876.

I am also Long JY fairly heavily.

DRT
 
Like I posted Friday. My signals have reversed on the Yen. I closed out my short posiiton. Good luck with your long trade in the YEN. I am sure you will do very well. I will be very surpirsed if we do not see the yen take out .8600 easily in this trading session.

Problem with the EURO I would love to go long, I just do not know when the decline will end :)

I guess that is the million dollar question.

DRT, Do you have a profit target for the YEN to the upside?


Regards
Steve
 
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