The View Down River

Good luck Doc. If the move down in the USDJPY ever does really gain momentum. I think it could go for a while. Personally, I think we are headed for the 114 area pretty soon.


Quote from spersky:

That chart I posted look like a double bottom on the yen and if we can break up .8595 and hold, I think there is some upside potenital. I locked in 10 pips on one of my YEN short today and the other one is still short from .8533.

It is not looking good however.

Regards,
Steve
 
Quote from downrivertrader:

Nice looking chart here and a well thought out entry and profitable trade also. Congrats on it. Can you 'splain it a little more Lucy? What do the "P's" statnd for or is this your secret sauce.

No secret sauce - just an abbreviation for cycle highs and lows - blue P = higher highs/higher lows and red P = lower highs/lower lows.

They are derived from a faster chart than the one I posted but that was only so I could show the entire move down.
 
Quote from spersky:

Excellent example

When the euro made that lower high at 1.1978 when did you get in? The next bar, after 1.1978 high?

Thanks
Steve

Yes, next down bar but on a faster "entry" chart as opposed to this "bigger picture" chart.
 
Dollar Index Regression Channels

Point A is the 1985 high, Point B is the 2001 high.

26 Years and here were are near the cross roads. Humbles you doesn't it.

Bounce Down? ....................or return the channel and blast off. Looks like a down move for now, but who really knows.

DRT
 

Attachments

Quote from downrivertrader:

Whew! Are you sure it was only wine, not Scotch. Oddly enough this is a very accurate answer. I am amazed.

Yes sir, it was the wine, I saved the Scotch for the Russell 2000. :)

It was the name of your thread gave me the clue that it's okay to offer my version of River View. In most other places, most other corners of ET forums, dare me to put out such comments, name callings are sure to follow.

It's only since last year I started to see price action in a "river way". Some like to put dams to block the flow, they are top and bottom pickers; Others are rafting alone and venturing into unknown zones, they are trend followers. etc... It helps me to relax when I'm in the market, to say the least. Not only it becomes easier for me to play along, it is now also easier for me to take the loss. The single most important chart pattern, if I have to name one, is the large triangle breakout that fills the second half of the chart. Instead of worrying about the failure, I would just put a stop and let it flow along. Trading becomes more enjoyable this way.

But to tell the truth, I really don't know much about trading the "River" yet. I'm an old student and am here to learn. I've learned something in this thread. There are some very good traders here. I've also got the feeling that I can learn more here. Thanks for sharing, especially you, VRT, I can't wait to read your River View...
 
Hey doc,

I have an account that I take some longer term positions in. I took the following position early this morining.

JYM06 Yen Futures June Contract

Long .8701

My plan for the target here is when (and if I might add) the USDJPY makes it down to the 114.40 ish area. Approximately 230 or so ticks.

If I exit I will let you know. If it does move against me here, I have another entry point below and I will try it again most likely.

DRT
 
I see an EC trade also.

Long 1.1902

Target 1 1.1987
Target 2 1.2016


I may regret this, but I am still holding my long 1.1930. At this point, the market has not proved me wrong. But it is getting very, very close.


DRT
 
Hello everyone:

I did haul myself out of bed to check the London open and found it trading pretty much unchanged from when I gave up for the night.

I have the following support and resistance to offer (cash):

Res: 1967 -1973
Key Level: 1927
Supp: 1883
Supp: 1849

My wave c projection suggests the Euro may carry lower to the 1844 level or, even a little lower.

I am still bullish and have an intermediate term target of 12650, the 50% correction from the Dec 05 high to the most recent low. In the short term I am looking for a spot to establish a long position.

Great charts yesterday and opinions offered. I wish I had more time to review them through the day but my regular job sometimes gets in the way of my trading. Don't you hate when that happens?

Best of luck to everyone
 
WHat do you think? Good value or bad value. Price is now at 1.1890? Hmmm?

It sure looks gloomy to some.


Quote from downrivertrader:

I see an EC trade also.

Long 1.1902

Target 1 1.1987
Target 2 1.2016


I may regret this, but I am still holding my long 1.1930. At this point, the market has not proved me wrong. But it is getting very, very close.


DRT
 
The 1844 level may be breached here. My wave c target is just below this level although the 1850 area is very good support.

May consider a long near this level.

Good luck
 
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