The View Down River
- Thread starter downrivertrader
- Start date
On checking the Euro this morning during the London open I found it still trading in a reasonably tight range. If someone would have twisted my arm and asked which direction it would most likely move...I probably would have said toward the 1850 low again.
Imagine my surprise at 7 am this morning.........
Here is a possible explanation for the move. Similiar story in the Yen:
LONDON (AFX) - The euro continued to rise against the dollar after a key survey on the German business climate came in stronger than expectations, cementing market expectations that the European Central Bank will hike interest rates further on March 2
The Ifo Institute said its business climate index jumped to 103.3 in February from 101.8 in January, the highest level in over 14 years and well above the 101.7 forecast by analysts polled by AFX News
Expectations for the coming months also continue to be very positive, with the business expectations index increasing to 104.8 from 103.8 and suggesting that firms are not yet too troubled by the prospect of higher interest rates
The strong reading bodes well for the economic growth outlook in the euro zone and Germany, and makes a quarter point rate hike next week very likely, said Lorenzo Codogno at the Bank of America
"Today's reading adds upside risk to our trend-like GDP growth forecast for the current year in Germany and the euro zone, and in particular to the first quarter 2006. Moreover, it strongly argues in favour of another 25 basis point increase in ECB rates in March, which is almost a done deal in our view," he said.
I will stand aside for the moment until we get our bearings here.
Good luck everyone.
Imagine my surprise at 7 am this morning.........
Here is a possible explanation for the move. Similiar story in the Yen:
LONDON (AFX) - The euro continued to rise against the dollar after a key survey on the German business climate came in stronger than expectations, cementing market expectations that the European Central Bank will hike interest rates further on March 2
The Ifo Institute said its business climate index jumped to 103.3 in February from 101.8 in January, the highest level in over 14 years and well above the 101.7 forecast by analysts polled by AFX News
Expectations for the coming months also continue to be very positive, with the business expectations index increasing to 104.8 from 103.8 and suggesting that firms are not yet too troubled by the prospect of higher interest rates
The strong reading bodes well for the economic growth outlook in the euro zone and Germany, and makes a quarter point rate hike next week very likely, said Lorenzo Codogno at the Bank of America
"Today's reading adds upside risk to our trend-like GDP growth forecast for the current year in Germany and the euro zone, and in particular to the first quarter 2006. Moreover, it strongly argues in favour of another 25 basis point increase in ECB rates in March, which is almost a done deal in our view," he said.
I will stand aside for the moment until we get our bearings here.
Good luck everyone.
Went short @ 1955. Closed my position at 1917 basis spot. I need to be out to think.
We may get another run up to the high. The 12020 - 24 area is still a target but we will see.
I look forward to any comments that anyone might have as to whether or not you think this marks a bottom in the Euro or, we are going much lower from here.
I don't have an opinion one way or the other right now.
We may get another run up to the high. The 12020 - 24 area is still a target but we will see.
I look forward to any comments that anyone might have as to whether or not you think this marks a bottom in the Euro or, we are going much lower from here.
I don't have an opinion one way or the other right now.
i sent a sell order @1985 but it wasn't filled obviously. so i've waited for a breach through the neck line of the 1970 double top @1941: i went short by an half position @1937.
now i've another sell order @1913. on the hourly it doesn't look so healthy but it needs an hourly close below 1915 level. there were a lot of orders to avoid this scenario around 9.55-10 EST.
i'm still thinking we're on a sideway (1.20-1.1850).
take a close glance at the SMA100 on the daily chart, if we close above this level tonight we will have a great probability to breach upwards the 1.20 level. i also think the latter is the most important on intraday basis, due to the huge amount of EMA on the daily chart ...
ciao
now i've another sell order @1913. on the hourly it doesn't look so healthy but it needs an hourly close below 1915 level. there were a lot of orders to avoid this scenario around 9.55-10 EST.
i'm still thinking we're on a sideway (1.20-1.1850).
take a close glance at the SMA100 on the daily chart, if we close above this level tonight we will have a great probability to breach upwards the 1.20 level. i also think the latter is the most important on intraday basis, due to the huge amount of EMA on the daily chart ...
ciao
Lorenzo:
I assume you went short at 1913. What do you think is a reasonable downside target.
Resistance seems to be at 1873 - 1850 and if that gives away 1770. I don't expect 1873 to give way but....
I am looking for a long position although the picture is far from clear. As indicated, the 12024 is still a target in my view and the big picture at this point is still for the Euro to head higher over the intermediate term.
Good luck on your trade.
I assume you went short at 1913. What do you think is a reasonable downside target.
Resistance seems to be at 1873 - 1850 and if that gives away 1770. I don't expect 1873 to give way but....
I am looking for a long position although the picture is far from clear. As indicated, the 12024 is still a target in my view and the big picture at this point is still for the Euro to head higher over the intermediate term.
Good luck on your trade.
We are going much lower in the euro. I did not sell it however because I have my short in the yen. I did not want to over expose myself to the dollar. We are in a downtrend in both currencies and I expect it to continue. Nice trade by both of you. I have been waiting for this strengh so I could get a nice short position. I jumped the gun at .8531, but I added to the short at .8575.
The euro target is 1.1825 in the next few days in my opinion.
Regards
Steve
The euro target is 1.1825 in the next few days in my opinion.
Regards
Steve
Thank you spersky for your opinion. The more views we share hopefully the clearer the bigger picture becomes.
I am undecided here because of what I see on th daily chart. We have a long descending channel followed by a breakout to the upside of the channel and then we see what is more or less sideways action. Usually this would indicate the market changing trend.
I also think the when Iran begins to sell oil in Euros it will significantly affect the dollar. I'm not certain when that is to happen but have read dates from March 20th to 26th. 2/3 of all of Iran's is apparently shipped to Japan and China; they have US$ cash reserves north of 800 bn and it is not unreasonable to assume that a substantial portion of those dollars will be converted to Euros. Europe will certainly buy in their own currency I think.
On the other hand, the stock market is probably going to see another blast higher before its really and truly done. Until we see that occur it may be that money will flow into the US equity markets necessitating the buying of dollars.
You may be right that the downside is the more attractive option right now. The 1770 may come into view. I am primarily a long term trader so I am hoping for some clarity soon.
I am willing to change my view on a moments notice.
Good trading.
I am undecided here because of what I see on th daily chart. We have a long descending channel followed by a breakout to the upside of the channel and then we see what is more or less sideways action. Usually this would indicate the market changing trend.
I also think the when Iran begins to sell oil in Euros it will significantly affect the dollar. I'm not certain when that is to happen but have read dates from March 20th to 26th. 2/3 of all of Iran's is apparently shipped to Japan and China; they have US$ cash reserves north of 800 bn and it is not unreasonable to assume that a substantial portion of those dollars will be converted to Euros. Europe will certainly buy in their own currency I think.
On the other hand, the stock market is probably going to see another blast higher before its really and truly done. Until we see that occur it may be that money will flow into the US equity markets necessitating the buying of dollars.
You may be right that the downside is the more attractive option right now. The 1770 may come into view. I am primarily a long term trader so I am hoping for some clarity soon.
I am willing to change my view on a moments notice.
Good trading.