The View Down River

9:02 AM EST Price at 1.1890

Depending on how things work if we return to the 1.1882 area...I would not hesitate to enter long here or add for a run up to 1.1910.

Quote from downrivertrader:

8:30 AM Price at 1.1872

Okay, that worked. I am now long at 1.1872. Again, not for the weak of heart here.

If we do move up, I am thinking the 1.1907 area will be a good near term target, but there is a possibility of a nice move up in my opinion. The 1.1985 area could come into focus but lets see.


I will update as I can.
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I also want to mention that if the USD loses some ground, I think there is a major down move coming in the USDJPY pair. We are in a critical area obviously....if it does fight down and closes below 117.50. I think thinks could really head south pretty good.

On the other had if it moves away to the topside, that is really a strong sign also.

I have a small postion Long JY (Short USDJPY) on now in all the congestion. This is very risky at the moment and I am not suggesting anyone do this, just wanted to discuss it a little.

DRT
 
I am watching the spot price very carefully right now. It is currently at 1.1875. If it falls below 1.863. I will likely cover and wait.

EC is trading at 1.1891 right now.

Quote from downrivertrader:

9:02 AM EST Price at 1.1890

Depending on how things work if we return to the 1.1882 area...I would not hesitate to enter long here or add for a run up to 1.1910.
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10:26 Price 1.1892

Pirce dipped to and I added at 1.1881. Here's my thoughts on the top of the range.

If price does happen to surge thru the 1.1910 area. I am thinking 1.1917 may turn it back down. If 1.1910 holds, it would be a good place to consider this the confirmation that further up is possible. I am still suggesting you take you profits here and wait.



DRT.



Quote from downrivertrader:

This is looking like a nice (short term)bottom to me. It is the continuation bottom from the pre-Ben testimony. Spot is in a nice spot to move up. Keep sharp here cause sellers will be lurking big time.

We will hae to get thru this 1.1902 ish area for it to be real. I would suggest taking some or all off and waiting for confirmation in this area. I will likely do this unless there is major movement thru here.

There will be heavy selling in this area and we could move back down. So I would STRONGLY recommend you get out here and wait. (or go short:p)

DRT
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The 1.1900 area is proving very difficult. There is nothing wrong with exiting here if you are not comfortable holding.

Quote from downrivertrader:

10:26 Price 1.1892

Pirce dipped to and I added at 1.1881. Here's my thoughts on the top of the range.

If price does happen to surge thru the 1.1910 area. I am thinking 1.1917 may turn it back down. If 1.1910 holds, it would be a good place to consider this the confirmation that further up is possible. I am still suggesting you take you profits here and wait.



DRT.
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11:10 I just exited this at 1.1910

Now let's watch. Looks good though


Quote from downrivertrader:

8:30 AM Price at 1.1872

Okay, that worked. I am now long at 1.1872. Again, not for the weak of heart here.

If we do move up, I am thinking the 1.1907 area will be a good near term target, but there is a possibility of a nice move up in my opinion. The 1.1985 area could come into focus but lets see.


I will update as I can.
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I hope this doesn't confuse anyone, but if price test the 1.1910-1.1913 area again and fails I may take a short here. 1.1907 may be a good spot. I will definitely get out on any surge up though

Quote from downrivertrader:

I am tempted to go short actually. I see a good set up, but will pass.
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Actually, I am looking at 1.1913 as the test.

Quote from downrivertrader:

I hope this doesn't confuse anyone, but if price test the 1.1910-1.1913 area again and fails I may take a short here. 1.1907 may be a good spot. I will definitely get out on any surge up though
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Looks like the day may be about over.....but you never know.


We picked up 50 points per contract profit on 2 trades. This was really above average considering the range today has only been 48 ticks.


I will likely not be posting anything tommorrow, as I will be traveling again. I will do my best to take a look at key levels early tommorrow morning and try to post what I see.

As a note -- Based on today's action, I would key off of the 1.1880 level. If Price returns there, I would give a long a shot and see if can clear the 1.1902 level. If price falls thru this level. Look to get short on a retest. Below here brings 1.1777 area into focus.

Good luck and remember Friday's have an above average chance to be turning points. Hopefully, we will get some clues.

Good luck and good trading

DRT
 
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