The View Down River

Spersky:

If I am calculating the spread properly that should be about the 12028 level basis cash. Looks like a good spot to initiate a long. Even if we are a little early, the maximum downside risk by my chart is 1.1990. I don't think the Euro is going dive much below this level, if at all.

I think the correction is very nearly over and the risk reward at this level is very good. We have substantial upside potential and well worth a little pain if it comes our way. Still we need to watch the risk. Not like the paper traders.

I will post my trades.

Good luck to you.
 
the test I think is if 120.78 basis GECM6 holds. If the week ends near the low of the week's range, it may be time for me to rethink any long ideas. I have been trying some intraday stuff, but may go back to daily and weekly charts/trading soon .
 
I am not long just yet, I think we may see the downside targets in my previous post hit before we are done here.

However whatever move that is left is likely to be short lived and we should see a reversal either today or tomorrow at the latest.

Good trading
 
Spersky:

We may see that 1990 level before we are done here but I don't expect this spike to extend much below that level.

Either way, we are very near the bottom here I think and I will be looking to go long in here. I will just wait to see how the market settles out in a few hours.

Good luck to you.
 
Quote from Buy1Sell2:

signals are not clear cut. There is a slightly higher probability of down action from right here in my view.(short term)
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This was a positional view at the time and it turned out to be a good one. If I see this again from a positional point of view, I will execute the trade for longer term. Still of course, could get that turn up that BLR predicts and that I tried earlier today. Perhaps I was early. The nice thing is that I only had one unit on at the time and of course, I will add to the next trade.
 
I am still here. I travel quite a bit, so it is not always easy for me to post. It is my hope that you all will keep this going. BLR is doing a great job keeping the momentum.

I thought everyone could use a good laugh.....I decided to exit my short position today at .2034. I still see the 1985 as a valid target for EC, but I also have spot hitting a key level right now and with the big announcement coming Tuesday, I think I will watch the market action for a while.

I was short at .2034 and .2151 so I picked up about 117 ticks on one trade. It was a hard fought battle with a lot of faith and I am not real pleased with the outcome. I tied up a lot of capital for a small gain. Several days have passed and I would like to re-evaluate things.

Maybe we can pick up some ticks on a few short term trades between now and Tuesday.

DRT


Quote from downrivertrader:

My reasons are really not explainable in a post or two. It has more to do with my long term technical method and nothing to do with any thing closely related to a fundamental reason. I know it seems silly now, but my studies indicate that this pair is headed in descending order to:

EC

1985
1907
1777
1631

EURUSD

1969
1868
1778
1633

Until I am proven wrong.....I see the action here ias just preparing us for the move lower. My values are dynamic and adaptive and change frequently depending on voliatility, but I have not taken a long view just yet. I usually take the road less traveled as a trader.

I very much respect your analysis and it seems right on. Please keep up the good work. I agree with you about the JPY. I think we should keep and eye on 3 addtional clues for now. Bond Yields, USDJPY and the $Index.

I am glad our market analysis differs because it means one of us will be right!!! hehe. :D

You should give up your day job and become a full time trader.

Good Profits to all,

DRT
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