The View Down River

Awesome trade BRL

I missed the big move because that spike scared me. I almost went short again, but I shorted the USM06 in a big way and I wanted to focus on that trade. Well at least I made money on that short. Although, I am little bit irritated at myself for missing that move in the ECM06. The move was so obvious that is what aggravates me.

Anyway, I will consider it a great lesson that did not take my capital away. It is just some opportunity costs.

Once again excellent analysis.

DRT,

Hopefully you are no some much under water anymore.

Good luck all

P.S. That bond trade turned out to be a big winner so I guess it isn't all bad :)

Regards,
Steve
 
Unfortunately I am going to be away from the screen for most of this afternoon and decided to close out my position for now. I expect we may get a weeee retracement here and another opportunity to go short.

Trade so far: Short at 12211
Close at 12151
Profit: 60 pips basis M06

If I get back to my desk I will initiate another short if the opportunity is there. Downside target still the same:

12030/40 basis the spot market.

Good luck everyone.

(Day job keeps getting in way. May move into a tent to reduce my expenses. Just need to convince my wife. I'll let you know how that conversation goes. hehe)
 
As expected we had a correction this afternoon after touching a low of 12075 basis cash. The high was 12113.

To recap (all cash pricing):

The weekly trend is up with a target of 12509 to 12653. We may see a final print closer to the latter target.

The daily trend is down but is likely to be short in duration. I expect the bottom here to be hit either tomorrow or on Thursday.

Downside Target: 12032 to 11990 before this correction is over. I don't expect the market to hit the lower level but...

My trade strategy is to short the Euro tonight and exit at or near the 12032 level....

I am then going to reverse and go long for a rally to the upper target of 12323.

I would appreciate any comments or opinions.

Good luck everyone
 
BLR, if the weekly chart were to end just the way it looks today, would that affect any of your analysis? Short term? Long term? Lots of trading between here and the weekend of course.
 
Buy1Sell2:

Its only my take but this is how I currently see the weekly chart. It is usually the time frame that I use to determine the intermediate trend. All quotes are spot.

From the high at 13665 on Dec 27/04 we came down in in a near perfect 5 wave pattern to the low on Nov 21/05 at 1684.

The wave count was as follows:

Wave 1: Feb 7/05 at 12731
Wave 2: Mar 14/05 at 13476
Wave 3: April 4/05 at 1867
Wave 4: Sept 5/05 at 12583
Wave 5: 1639 Nov 21/05 (this completed wave A)

I am assuming that we are now in Wave B which is typically three waves. Wave 1 or A if you prefer, completed on Jan 23/06 at 12321. Wave 2 or B has completed on Feb 27 at 1823.

Wave 3 or C may complete in the range from 12509 - 12653 before we begin the major move down to at least 1639 and perhaps to 1.1000.

So I don't see any change to the overall picture with today's action or towards the end of the week. We will be done with this current minor corrective low before the end of the week and I want to be in a long position.

Please jump all over me if you have another opinion. I try to always keep the "bigger picture" in mind so that I don't become lost in the current minor trends.

Best regards
 
I see a reversal developing on hourly charts that would take GECM6 higher. If that occurs during the next 3 days and the weekly charts show a strong close, I think we could go higher. Right now, if the weekly closed where it is, I would have to rethink that. In addition, I think a higher euro ie lower dollar would not help the equity market.
 
I agree with you that we are going higher and just need to complete this minor correction before we do. It may be that we will not see the 12030/40 level, 12060 may be the bottom. It may be a little early to tell.

I agree that by the end of the day today we will have a better idea of where we are in the overall pattern. Better be ready to go long when the train enters the station.

Always interesting and thanks for your reply.

Best regards.
 
Good market to stay out of until there is some indication of a move, one way or the other.

Downside to 12030 is still my preferred view but I can't see a good risk/reward here.

Good trading everyone
 
Euro finally moving to the final low of this minor corrective phase.

Target 12032 - 1.1990

Best profit potential is to catch this turn as the Euro begins the next leg up to 12323 as the first target. Correction should be complete before the weekend.

I look forward to any comments.

Good trading everyone
 
Looking to go long EC soon. I agree with your analysis. I might add a long tonight and then add more soon. I just dont want to jump the gun. 1.2096 on the ECM06 seems like a great spot to go long according to my charts.

Addendum. I am long just one unit at 1.2118. stop is at 1.2053.

I will add to position in any dip with hard stop at 1.2053. I will also add heavily at 1.2100.

Regards
Steve
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top