The View Down River

DRT:

The JY seems to just holding onto its current level at least on an hourly basis. After hunting around a bit I found that it appears that there are stops at or just below the 117.10 area. Makes sense I guess, the last low was 117.12. If that gives way we have a sheer drop (as you indicated in one of your posts).

There appears to be a triple top in the JY around the 119.00 area on the daily chart.

I might add that if the Euro does not clear the 12092 level we will have a double top on a daily basis as well but it is at a minor resistance level. My charts are telling me we are in a correction that will end at the levels I have beating death in previous posts.

My take on the dollar is that the TIC report today is the final nail in the coffin of the dollar at least in the intermediate term. I don't think the bulls can rely on interest rate hikes to prop it up. Interest will begin to focus on more structural problems, current account, deficit etc. Friday we will have the COT/Funds position. If they are starting to short then we will have both the technical and fundamental picture going for us.

I am interested in what you see that tells you the next move is down.

Best of luck
 
My reasons are really not explainable in a post or two. It has more to do with my long term technical method and nothing to do with any thing closely related to a fundamental reason. I know it seems silly now, but my studies indicate that this pair is headed in descending order to:

EC

1985
1907
1777
1631

EURUSD

1969
1868
1778
1633

Until I am proven wrong.....I see the action here ias just preparing us for the move lower. My values are dynamic and adaptive and change frequently depending on voliatility, but I have not taken a long view just yet. I usually take the road less traveled as a trader.

I very much respect your analysis and it seems right on. Please keep up the good work. I agree with you about the JPY. I think we should keep and eye on 3 addtional clues for now. Bond Yields, USDJPY and the $Index.

I am glad our market analysis differs because it means one of us will be right!!! hehe. :D

You should give up your day job and become a full time trader.

Good Profits to all,

DRT
 
Hey doc,

This signal is still in place for me. Not sure what your risk tolerance is on this. Look like it moved 29 points against so far.

If the the USD is sold off tonight strongly, I would get out quickly otherwise I will update the targets as time goes on.


Quote from downrivertrader:

I have a short set up on the JY futures at .8618.

T1 = .8584
T2 = .8557 area

Please use your judgement. It is definitely a high risk. It is a trade I would always take. Use a stop.

The cash trade is long at 117.42
T1= .1787
T2= .1803-1808
More...
 
Hey DRT,

Thanks for the follow-up. I did manage to short the yen this A.M. I made and lost a few pips then closed it out for 2 pip profit. I am convinced USD will be alot stronger then Yen. I just want to get my timeing right. There might be a day or 2 more of upmoves which I do not want to sit through. That is why I closed out my short.

Regards,
Steve
 
Hi DRT - wondering if you could explain sometime what you are looking at when viewing a chart such as the Bonds which you posted earlier. Not looking for anything proprietary (which maybe it is) but more just some general thoughts concerning price action within the channel - such as looking to trade movement from the extremes to the median, etc. Thanks ... tbone
 
Put up a weekly chart of the EURUSD/EC and compare it to the bonds chart I posted. My point with posting this chart is that I think the bonds are headed lower. (as well as the EURUSD)

Do you understand the inverse relationship between interest rates and bond prices? If not, do a google search an study it. The bond-dollar relationship is very important and while many will argue its consistency, I use it extensively to confirm my trading decisions. It is not an exact science by any means but it serves me fairly well.

This can be a little confusing. Clear as mud.

DRT

Quote from mephistoII:

Hi DRT - wondering if you could explain sometime what you are looking at when viewing a chart such as the Bonds which you posted earlier. Not looking for anything proprietary (which maybe it is) but more just some general thoughts concerning price action within the channel - such as looking to trade movement from the extremes to the median, etc. Thanks ... tbone
More...
 
Good evening everyone.

The Euro is trading at 12057 after reaching a high of 12073. It has successfully cleared the resistance at the 12050 area.

I expect the Euro to reach the 12081 - 12097 area before a minor corrections sets in (it could reach the 1.2020 area before it begins to move higher).

For those who are not long the upside will probably be limited to the 12097 area so be ready to exit or short here for a short term ride lower.

The dollar index took a hit today and it is likely that we will see the 88.80 and then the 87.00 level in the near future.

DRT: I don't think we disagree on the Euro longer term. After this correction higher to the 12509+ area, I expect the Euro to drop to the 1600 area or lower. The weekly chart suggests that 1.1000 will be the final low before it begins another bull run.

I would like to quit my job and trade full time but for some reason my wife thinks its risky and prefers that steady pay cheque. There is just no reasoning with her. :)

Good trading everyone.
 
Quote from downrivertrader:

Put up a weekly chart of the EURUSD/EC and compare it to the bonds chart I posted. My point with posting this chart is that I think the bonds are headed lower. (as well as the EURUSD)

Do you understand the inverse relationship between interest rates and bond prices? If not, do a google search an study it. The bond-dollar relationship is very important and while many will argue its consistency, I use it extensively to confirm my trading decisions. It is not an exact science by any means but it serves me fairly well.

This can be a little confusing. Clear as mud.

DRT
More...

Thanks for your explanation, DRT. Sorry - I wasn't considering the fundamental relationships to which you referred. Was just looking at the chart and wondering what technical signal you might be noticing, other than the obvious fact that the bonds look to be heading south. I now understand what you were suggesting for others to consider. And that's my purpose for being here - just trying to broaden my own myopic view on this mkt :>)
 
Good morning everyone. Looks like the Euro is still climbing. I added to my short postion in the EC at 1.2151.

I do think spot is going to continue up to the 2096 - 2114 level though.

Good luck today
DRT
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top