The View Down River

If I step back and think about it....I ask myself, "What is the Euro Celebrating today? Is it the ZEW data which was terrible or is it the Current Account balance which no one has cared about for months and we all know is way out of whack? Bonds must be celebrating at the same party I guess.

Hmmm?

DRT

Quote from downrivertrader:

It is certainly a combination of many things. Personally, I think the current move is very emotional and reflects a lot of pent up traders needing to "get on the right side" of things. I want to keep my eye on this one. I know this sounds like a broken record, but I don't see it just yet. Much more damage to my P&L and then I may get it. hehe.

I also have the Yen on a key pullback level. If it does not reverse and begin to move higher in the next session or so, then I may be convinced.


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With EUR/USD brushing the 1.2000 level after a dovish take from one of the consulting shops on future Fed hikes, dealers are looking for topside targets. 1.2025/30 is the while 1.2095 is the medium-term object for EUR bulls. 1.1985 is support on pullbacks near-term. Interest rate differentials have been contracting all day, which favors the EUR, and the forecast for funds topping out near 4.75% has accelerated the move. 10-year spreads are at 112 bp today from 123 bp just over a week ago. Contraction in the 2-year maturity is about the same, from 170 bp to 160 bp in
the last week.
More...
 
Hi everyone!
I've been reading this thread since it was born and it actually made me register here though i'm from another part of the world i guess. anywawy thoughts i find very valuable in here, so i'd like to join sometimes. Well,that's kind of disclaimer :D

i trade spot or cash FX, not futures, however i've been watching currency futures action for some time as it gives some clue on VOLUME which is not clearly available on spot market. well, it MIGHT be available to some banks i guess, but not to retailers or individuals. so, that's my question if anyone of you find it helpful to track volume action ALONG with price action in currency markets?
i also find interesting to watch COT reports as it could possibly give hints to what the "big boys" are doing. Right now it seems to me that we are still in the "no man's land" referring to EUR/USD pair.
Actually, i agree with DRT on market ignoring bad US data as to acct.deficit AND at the same time really appreciate BLR's thoughts on oil (mid-east) matters favoring Euro.
Hope, i didn't seem to "interrupt" you all.

Best wishes!
 
Welcome aboard IgrIs. Feel free to say what ever you like here. That's what it is all about anyway.

As far as volume....I do follow volume but only to the extent of anomalies like an extremely high/low volume day. What I do watch closely is the bid/ask columns of my trade platform. To me it is an edge, but not a great one. Feel free to post any questions or thoughts on SPOT pairs. We can all learn a little form each other.

Where do you live?

DRT



Quote from IgrIs:

Hi everyone!
I've been reading this thread since it was born and it actually made me register here though i'm from another part of the world i guess. anywawy thoughts i find very valuable in here, so i'd like to join sometimes. Well,that's kind of disclaimer :D

i trade spot or cash FX, not futures, however i've been watching currency futures action for some time as it gives some clue on VOLUME which is not clearly available on spot market. well, it MIGHT be available to some banks i guess, but not to retailers or individuals. so, that's my question if anyone of you find it helpful to track volume action ALONG with price action in currency markets?
i also find interesting to watch COT reports as it could possibly give hints to what the "big boys" are doing. Right now it seems to me that we are still in the "no man's land" referring to EUR/USD pair.
Actually, i agree with DRT on market ignoring bad US data as to acct.deficit AND at the same time really appreciate BLR's thoughts on oil (mid-east) matters favoring Euro.
Hope, i didn't seem to "interrupt" you all.

Best wishes!
More...
 
DRT,

Welcome back. I think the bid/ask volumes of the Trade Station matrix window are helpful. It tells you what price points are likely to have some activity.

Right now, I will have to sit aside. I have no idea where the EUR is heading. My technical Analysis tell me to get short, but I am a little to unsure right now to place a trade.

Good luck all,

Nice trade BRL
 
well, i think one of the good examples occured on Jan.23 On futures chart (barchart.com, for example) it seemed like i gap-up day with a low-volume. I'm not sure if it was extremely low, that's why i'd like your thoughts on this.
As to bid/ask columns, could u please tell me where i could see that? What's your platform if it's not a top secret? ;-)

i trade kind of currency portfolio, that's why i'm not sure if it's suitable to post on this in this thread. if it's okay, i could surely share my views on other currencies as well.

I'm from Ukraine, former USSR.
 
No secret on the platform. If you read thru spersky's post above he mentions the Matrix in Tradestation. Price is plotted on a vertical axis and volume bars are plotted next to price on a horizontal axis. I will try to post some shots of it in the coming sessions. You can go to http://www.tradestation.com to learn about it.


Quote from IgrIs:

well, i think one of the good examples occured on Jan.23 On futures chart (barchart.com, for example) it seemed like i gap-up day with a low-volume. I'm not sure if it was extremely low, that's why i'd like your thoughts on this.
As to bid/ask columns, could u please tell me where i could see that? What's your platform if it's not a top secret? ;-)

i trade kind of currency portfolio, that's why i'm not sure if it's suitable to post on this in this thread. if it's okay, i could surely share my views on other currencies as well.

I'm from Ukraine, former USSR.
More...
 
The View Down River

(ECM06) Price is at 1.2083

I am currently short at 1.2034 and down 49 ticks

Here's what I see for short term trading

2152 - Very Strong Resistance
2128 - Strong Resistance
1.2096 - Short below this level/Long above
2066-73 - Very Strong support.
2052 - Very Strong Support
1994 - Very Strong Support

If price does move down at all, I would watch price action around the 2068 level as a good entry long. It will be a tough fight to get thru this area I suspect. I need the the 2052 area to give way to have any chance of my short position becoming profitable.



DRT
 
Welcome from me as well igrls, I look forward to your comments. DRT has started a great journal and I for one hope it continues.

The Euro went mostly sideways this afternoon after a fairly decent run up. The dollar broke the 90 handle today briefly and then recovered a little. This suggests to me that the correction for the dollar is over, or nearly so.

Tonight the COT report may be available and if it is I will post it for everyone to have a look at. If the Funds are starting to go short it will be a confirmation that the dollar has turned lower.

The current hourly chart is forming a flag which suggests a continuation of the current up move from the most recent low on March 10 at 1.1861.

Next target: 1.2092 the March 6 high. There is some mild resistance in the 12040/50 area then, 12092. This appears to be a key level in the short term. A trade above this level confirms I think, the intermediate term bullish view.

I will consider a long position on a trade above 12030 with a close stop.

As always I look forward to any other opinions.

Best of luck to everyone.
 
Keep an eye on the JPY. If the current level around 117.42 holds. I think it will move up strongly. On the other hand...if it gives way to any degree than lookout below.
 
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