The very long term prospects for bitcoin

[ScroogeMcDuck]

Bitcoin supply is capped at 21 million, but the worldwide digital economy will keep growing, so even in the limit after universal adoption, the value of bitcoin continues to rise ~4%/year forever.

Right now all the AAA bonds have negative real yields. It's really no contest. All the target retirement funds that hold a fixed % of bonds should be dumping them for bitcoin until the AAA bond yields are at least 4% above inflation.

The long term effect of bitcoin will be to place a lower bound on real interest rates.

 

[BKR88]

All the target retirement funds that hold a fixed % of bonds should be dumping them for bitcoin

Bond investors are looking for safety. Not sure bitcoin is a good alternative.

 

[zghorner]

the value of bitcoin continues to rise ~4%/year forever.

"except when it drops 45% in a couple of weeks" - 2017

 

[ScroogeMcDuck]

Stability is a product of the size of the network effect. It's the product of the Keynesian beauty contest rather than a fundamental characteristic of a type of money. Bitcoin is superior to fiat in all the fundamentals, but the market hasn't caught up to that yet.

30 year negative-real-yield bonds will never really be safe, at all. a 5% increase in yields makes them lose 75% of their value.

 

[johnarb]

Stability is a product of the size of the network effect. It's the product of the Keynesian beauty contest rather than a fundamental characteristic of a type of money. Bitcoin is superior to fiat in all the fundamentals, but the market hasn't caught up to that yet.

30 year negative-real-yield bonds will never really be safe, at all. a 5% increase in yields makes them lose 75% of their value.

I believe macro investors Raoul Pal and Dan Tapiero have alluded to this. I'll post the YouTube video if there's interest

[edit: not on the effect of the increase in yield, I didn't know that as I don't understand the mechanics of bonds]

 

[Pekelo]

Hell, I am bored, so I will just destroy you...

1.Bitcoin supply is capped at 21 million,
2.so even in the limit after universal adoption,
3. the value of bitcoin continues to rise ~4%/year forever.

1. Irrelevant since cryptos are not scarce or unique. Also infinite divisibility.
2. This is a HUGE assumption. Since the transaction price is currently $10, nobody in their right mind is using BTC as a payment form. So good luck with the universal adoption when way better cryptos exist.
3.This doesn't follow. You somehow arrived at a conclusion that makes no sense from the premise.

Grade: F

 

[trade4succes]

Bitcoin supply is capped at 21 million, but the worldwide digital economy will keep growing, so even in the limit after universal adoption, the value of bitcoin continues to rise ~4%/year forever.

Right now all the AAA bonds have negative real yields. It's really no contest. All the target retirement funds that hold a fixed % of bonds should be dumping them for bitcoin until the AAA bond yields are at least 4% above inflation.

The long term effect of bitcoin will be to place a lower bound on real interest rates.

If the value of BTC continues to rise, this alone makes it fail as a payment system. It will be too valuable as an investment to use as a currency. If it is not used as a currency, then there is not other use for it hence no value. I see a problem here.

 

[OptionsOptionsOptions]

• IMO ....... Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies is a ponzi scheme and will crash to zero.
• What's the point cryptocurrencies?

 

[VicBee]

Seems like Tsla and btc are catalysts for emotional outbursts that seem so irrelevant for people making money trading.

 

[maxinger]

• IMO ....... Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies is a ponzi scheme and will crash to zero.
• What's the point cryptocurrencies?

right.
short term, it might rise to 50k, 100k ...

long term, it might crash to 10k, 1000, 100, 10 or even <1.
BTC supply is limited.
But cryptocurrency is of infinite supply.


So very long term prospect is extremely good as there might
be Tulip Mania #2.