The Vanzandt SPLUNK..... SHORT SPLK @ $55.05

eganon69 said:
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Eganon69,

You give some nice pointers on the use of "relative analysis" in comparing stocks to the market/sector etc.

If I may add one more here for Vanzandt it would be Have you heard the term "a bull market climbs a wall of worry"? When sentiment is bearish/sceptical yet the market is making all time highs you want to be long, not short.

Eganon looks like you have a good system for screening and would love to hear more about. Do you take into account volatility? Or if a market is trending or ranging?
 
redbaron1981 said:
When sentiment is bearish/sceptical yet the market is making all time highs you want to be long, not short.
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Very true. Its also true that when the market is hitting new highs and the sentiment is off the charts bullish... its time to get short.

From everything I hear,.... from this forum to CNBC to Bloomberg to friggin Whoopie Goldberg on the View... this market can go no where but up. I think me and southhampton (surf or whoever he is) are the only two skeptics in the world right now. The sentiment right now is ANYTHING but bearish.

And I'm old enough to say I've been here before and seen this before.

This rally is all about Trump and what people think he's gonna do. That's nuts! Maybe he will, maybe he won't.

But here's reality, aside from a few tech outliers... damn near every company I follow missed their top line this quarter.

And every day... the dollar gets stronger. You know what that does to U.S. based multi-national earnings? It kills em.

And then you have Yellin throwing a possible three more rate hikes on the table.

And may I point out that it was I who said numerous times months ago that the markets were going to hit 20K. My tagline was "DOW 20K is on the way". And I am going to be so bold as to say this market would be right where its at right now if Hillary had gotten in.

Markets move up drastically near term on hype... they move up long term on fundamentals. When they move up drastically on hype, fundamentals and reality ALWAYS settles in... and reality is going to settle in. I'll take any and all bets this market see's 18.5 before 21.5.

You guys are all being hoodwinked. Insights into the human psyche as it applies to herd mentality is the key to understanding market movements on a relatively short term basis. Long term... its all in the fundamentals. Buffet is not wrong, nor was Peter lynch.

Enjoy the party...
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vanzandt said:
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If you note in the above weekly chart you posted... look at the 39 ema on June 27th and also sept 29th. Both rising EMA's ... but huge gap downs. ER related I'm sure. Those are big moves though. Thats where a strong knowledge about a company or an industry or macro factors can pay off big... despite the rising 39ema.

But enough for tonight EG. I enjoy the exchange. (but did you really have to call it Vanzandts SPLUNK in the header). I wouldn't do that you. Oh well. hahahhah
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I am sorry if it struck a nerve with your name in the title. I don't mean anything by it. Just trying to get your attention. If I could I would go back and change the name....my apologies for that.

As far as the fall on June 27. Yes you are correct that it fell. My Weekly EMA 39 rule for you is not the end all be all. It just gives you a direction. Does that mean you should buy everything where the EMA 39 is rising?.....NO of course not. I have added a rising trend channel for that time period. If I were trading a rising trend line channel do you think I would buy at the top or bottom of that channel?....Where was price on June 27? ,....at the top edge of that trend channel. See chart beloAs far as Sept 19 I am not sure I see what you are talking about since the stock was mostly flat that day. However, if you look at the HUGE Down Trendline on the weekly chart you can see that in August, Sept., Oct. of 2016 the stock was at MAJOR resistance and the price is rolling over a bit and MACD lines on all three time frames are rolling over and pointing down giving an indication of possible future price movement and momentum.

Sadly, I will not give every pearl of wisdom on TA here and this is far more than I would usually give. But thought I would offer this explanation up to you.

Bottom line is use the EMA as SIMPLY a directional indicator (long or short) and then pick your spots to go long or short wisely based on this and trendlines and price movement. Look at the big picture before trading small time frames.



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redbaron1981 said:
Eganon69,

You give some nice pointers on the use of "relative analysis" in comparing stocks to the market/sector etc.

If I may add one more here for Vanzandt it would be Have you heard the term "a bull market climbs a wall of worry"? When sentiment is bearish/sceptical yet the market is making all time highs you want to be long, not short.

Eganon looks like you have a good system for screening and would love to hear more about. Do you take into account volatility? Or if a market is trending or ranging?
More...


I try to trade with the market or at the least the sector. I take volatility in mind for stops and sometimes if a stock is too volatile in price movement I will not trade it but ultimately we want volatility to make money, so some amount of volatility is ideal.
 
I have absolutely ZERO idea what the company makes or does or any financials. This is purely a TA paper trade. If you say the fundamentals support my short,...GREAT. As I was saying above I generally do not trade against the overwhelming market trend but IF I were to do so THIS is a PERFECT SHORT from my point if view. It dropped 0.5% today. I could be wrong and perhaps pops UP 10% tomorrow for all I know but I doubt that will happen. We will see....but I am expecting a major POP in one direction or another in this stock very soon. I am making my TA case for it to drop.
 
So far this paper trade would have made money. This has so far dropped from my proposed entry price of $56.28 to $52.34 or 7% lower in a week. This is looking like it will accelerate soon too....


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yep and still going. Now I regret not taking the trade,...LOL. But it was meant to be an educational thing anyway as I was just trying to point out some things that I look for if I going to short something.
 
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