The USD is the buy of a lifetime: Attack on Ron Paul's soldiers

Quote from scriabinop23:

First of all, minus the social security and medicare debt (which are offset by our cash reserves), its about $5 Trillion. Our GDP is $13T or so. Check that ratio compared to other modern countries. Its not great to have debt, but its manageable.

Look at how GDP has changed over the years. You'll quickly realize a $20T GDP in 2020 is not undoable. If we merely keep our debt under control and reign in entitlements, that is easily handleable and even reduceable in our system.

Other points:
1) We spend $650B on military in '08. Imagine if we cut that down to $200B. Then redirect a few hundred billion annually to moving to electric vehicles ... etc..
2) Imagine if we lowered entitlement benefits -- less medicare and social security, to a balanced level. No system drain. It will happen - it just may take a few years for it to go into mainstream politics.
3) Fiscal conservative republicans??? Give me evidence of that. They've been fiscally disastrous.
4) One of the present consequences of our trade imbalances is this exporting dollars for taking in crude oil; well it just happens to play out that most of those dollars are finding their way back to the US. Thats a normal consequence of trade. Both sides tend to balance out. Not sustainable if the Bush way of life continues, but its clear that way of life will be over soon.

Energy policy is really the crux of it all. We need to stop the war spending and redirect it to getting off crude. When that happens, the whole game changes.
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Hey buddy! military spending going down in USA in the next decade????????......I don't know how you can think about it...
Irak, afghanistan, Iran......open your eyes! Military expenses gonna go higher for the next few years, let say 5 more years to fix the Irak problem. Then, if you are very optimist you can expect military expenses to stabilise. Somebody have a military expenses chart of US government for the last 50 years?
 
Quote from scriabinop23:

I'll take that at least as a compliment on my writing skills. Thanks. Now as far as the substance...

Ron Paul wants to see an abolishment of the federal reserve; a return to gold standard and even possibly removal of fractional reserve banking.

Am I wrong?

These issues are what I'm targeting here. Without flexibility in money supply, investment possibility really dies. My point is simply that.

The fall of the dollar has as much if not more to do with our fiscal waste and mismanagement than mere money supply pumping. Our currency is only as good as our politics.
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Yes, Ron paul wants to see the abolishment of the FED, but he is not implying or saying lets just eliminate it right now. He understands that you just can't throw it in the trash instantly.

When he refers to returning to the gold standard he is talking about having competing currencies and not ones that are solely munipulated by the few. In referance to congress, the FED, the president, the senate and other influential powers that go unchecked.

Removal of fractional reserve banking? The Fed? Please define.

As far as fiscal waste you are correct. Thats why the recent Republican rule are running for the exits. I will totally agree they were total frauds for a lack of better words.

"Our currency is only as good as our politics". As sad as is it for me to say you are very correct on this statment at this time.

My issue is that your article implies that RP supporters are Goldbugs, which is far from the truth on an overall basis. I will conceed there are Goldbugs as you call it, but they are not the majority.

This is not his base though as implied in your article. There is way more depth to the people that follow the majority of his message.

I just think you fall short of analysis on that.

I do though Sir appreciate your respect and understanding of continuing/debating the issue with a highly intellectual response.
 
While I agree with, and appreciate much of your logic, I think you are calling a bottom a bit early...
a short term bottom?...sure...could the USD drift higher here as prices stabilize and form a new floor? sure...
But unless massive transformations occur within our economy, and sans massive global currency intervention in the dollar occurs, it has a long long long way to fall, as all empires currencies do...

Ron Paul followers are not necessarily traders, and so they will have awful timing, just like the next guy who closes the barn door after the horse has left...
 
The issue isn't gold. The issue is a government and nation that doesn't even SEE that they are BURIED in debt and need to live within their means.

You seem to forget the government has taken many dollars from us boomers over the years, and promised us social security and medicare in return. Take your debt number back to $10 billion and add the $55 billion for the unfunded promises.

Its time to face reality, the nation is bankrupt.
 
This article is very well written, but got much of the economics distorted abit.

You consider the high price of other currencies and commodities as "bubble" when actually it is the process of U.S. adjusting to its new row in global economic system where it is no longer the single and only factor.

Alot emphasiz where placed on U.S. "creativity" and "innovation" etc. when we all know that most of this is just IT and other computer/internet related stuff driving th hype. Being in Silicon Valley myself which is the center of this bubble, I can tell you that this is not sustainable. 90% of tech venture capibal is on Sand Hill road here in Palo Alto, that is insane.

U.S. is no longer a producer for the world, it has become a consumer of vast quantities of commodities and products.

I could've written a paper on this in response to your article but I'm too lazy to to taht and english is my second language so of course whatever i write wont be as eloquent as yours so don't pick on my english pls.

Great Britain once dominated the world with its Pound. GBP used to be the world's reserve currency and highly valued. You should not call the world a "bubble" when it is you see price in the world go up, because it is very possible that the world is less dependent on you.
 
scriabinop23,

One piece of advice for you. When investing, it is very important to separate nationalist pride/sentiment/politics from business decisions. It is not worth it to waste all our wealth to fight for some arbitrary national pride.

George Soros is a ton of cash and he hates U.S. political system (bush) with conviction. He had enough cash that leveraged wisely could easily embarrase bush administration by causing financial turmoils and precipitous decline in USD. But he is wise enough to separate business from politics.

Likewise today, USD and american economy is really in a bad shape. I've been saying this since 2003, it's not like i just started this thing this morning. American economy has serious structural problems that is not likely to be solved soon. It would be wise, for your sake, to diversify into some other assets particularly Japan, Germany etc.

It is in my interest to persuade you to buy more USD so that I could sell more USD assets on rally. But i'm a honest guy:D
 
Quote from scriabinop23:

(...)Without flexibility in money supply, investment possibility really dies. My point is simply that.
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And is this a fact or a theory? And if a theory, what is your evidence?

In fact, there is no solid evidence. All the evidence keynesians and monetarists have for that assertion is a few distorted and incomplete history recounts and flawed econometric studies.
 
Quote from daddyeaux:

this chart looks to bottom at around zero...

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1850328>

yep, solid support at zero
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Exactly...
 
Quote from scriabinop23:


But all of those problems are fixable. One needn't look far to realize that speculative flows to the euro are not quite justifiable on news reel of <a href="http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/0,1518,536635,00.html">German bank stability</a>.
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Very very interesting...But it seems everyone here missed this article.Talking about big problems of Germany's banks is so tedious!Crash of the U.S. is much more attractive...

to Pa(b)st Prime
" Why is oil such a concern? Why not foreign cars? Or foreign wines? Or foreign electronics?"

Because oil is a weapon.Just have a look at how skillfully the tsar of my country Putin used it against the neighbors (Ukraine,Belorussia,Georgia,etc.).
What about Venezuela and Colombia conflict?Chavez's first words:No oil supply.
You can easily do without foreign cars,let alone wines.

Sorry about my russian english.
 
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