The US tariffs on China have been paid almost entirely by US importers: IMF study

srinir

srinir

The US tariffs on China have been paid almost entirely by US importers: IMF study

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/23/the...mporters-imf-study.html?__source=twitter|main

  • The IMF study says tariff revenue collected from levies on Chinese goods “has been borne almost entirely” by U.S. importers.
  • China and the U.S. have been engaged in a trade war for more than a year. In that time, they have targeted billions of dollars worth of goods with high import tariffs.
  • President Donald Trump claimed on May 8 that the higher levies on Chinese goods are “filling U.S. coffers” to the tune of $100 billion per year.
  • But the IMF says the bilateral trade deficit between China and the U.S. remains “broadly unchanged” even with the tariffs
U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods are hurting an unintended target as the trade war rages, an International Monetary Fund study found.

The study, released Thursday, said that tariff revenue collected from levies on Chinese goods “has been borne almost entirely” by U.S. importers.


China and the U.S. have been engaged in a trade war for more than a year. In that time, they have targeted billions of dollars worth of goods with high import tariffs. However, “there was almost no change in the (ex-tariff) border prices of imports from China, and a sharp jump in the post-tariff import prices matching the magnitude of the tariff,” the study said

...
“Consumers in the US and China are unequivocally the losers from trade tensions,” the IMF report said, adding higher tariffs could also hurt economic growth. “While the impact on global growth is relatively modest at this time, the latest escalation could significantly dent business and financial market sentiment, disrupt global supply chains, and jeopardize the projected recovery in global growth in 2019.”
 
You can find a 100 studies that all come up with different conclusions.
Remember all the studies that said Obamacare was going to lower everyone’s health insurance rates and save the country billions?
 
I know guys that own machine shops who raised their prices 25percent across the board whether the steel they purchased came from China or not.
 
Last edited:
https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2019/05/24/1558684850000/Who-s-paying-for-the-US-China-trade-war-/

President Trump has long said it is China, not the US, who will pay for the ongoing trade war. But as tensions flare-up, it has become increasingly clear that much of the burden is falling on consumers stateside.

...
Some firms that import goods from China have absorbed the additional costs of the tariffs by lowering their profit margins. In fact, according to David Kostin at Goldman Sachs, margins have already come under pressure this year and last. And if 25 per cent tariffs are applied to all Chinese imports, his team reckons S&P 500 earnings-per-share estimates will decline by as much as 6 per cent in 2019.


Of course, firms could raise prices on their products to offset their costs. A 1 per cent increase in prices by S&P 500 companies in the aggregate would do it, says Kostin. As the IMF points out in a recent report, some have already decided to do so, making US consumers and their counterparts "unequivocally the losers from trade tensions:"

...
Of course, supporters of Trump's policy might argue that such costs are only intended to be temporary and that the switch to less efficient producers stateside is essential if innovation-based efficiency is to be stimulated in the long run (in contrast to the cheap labour-cost-based and dirty-fuel based efficiency that underpins Chinese competitiveness)
 
It's kind of stupid to say tariffs are bad

Inflation is good according to the FED and they do whatever it takes to get it - by printing money
they printed trillions to get inflation, made some small number of people insanely rich and robbed elders with low interest

Fed wants higher inflation - tariffs bring higher inflation

mission accomplished
 
kashirin said:
It's kind of stupid to say tariffs are bad

Inflation is good according to the FED and they do whatever it takes to get it - by printing money
they printed trillions to get inflation, made some small number of people insanely rich and robbed elders with low interest

Fed wants higher inflation - tariffs bring higher inflation

mission accomplished
More...

Tarrifs and inflation are two very different things. Inflation is good because deflation is terrible. Deflation puts the economy into a death spiral as no one has any incentive to invest today (tomorrow prices will be cheaper). That begets even cheaper prices tomorrow and the cycle becomes vicious.

Volatile inflation is bad because you can’t plan your future. Long term investments have to be discounted at higher risk adjusted rates and that slows investment which affects economic growth.

So the fed targets moderate inflation so that there is buffer from deflation and there is a moderate incentive to invest now.

Tarrifs do nothing to support the fed on inflation and on the margin hurt because uncertainty raises the threshold for long term.
 
newwurldmn said:
Tarrifs and inflation are two very different things. Inflation is good because deflation is terrible. Deflation puts the economy into a death spiral as no one has any incentive to invest today (tomorrow prices will be cheaper). That begets even cheaper prices tomorrow and the cycle becomes vicious.

Volatile inflation is bad because you can’t plan your future. Long term investments have to be discounted at higher risk adjusted rates and that slows investment which affects economic growth.

So the fed targets moderate inflation so that there is buffer from deflation and there is a moderate incentive to invest now.

Tarrifs do nothing to support the fed on inflation and on the margin hurt because uncertainty raises the threshold for long term.
More...

mild deflation is not bad.
technology operates in deflation for the last 200 years and it doesn't prevent investment

deflation is bad when you have excessive debt against assets- this is why Fed targets asset prices
and it's bad not because it's bad for the economy but because fed cronies loose money

it's that simple
but the Fed doesn't actually care where inflation comes from. they just want higher prices
so make no doubt - this tariffs is welcome development for the Fed
and assests can always be supported by additional money printing


imagine in Australia their central bank says - they have problem with inflation because fuel is cheaper and electricity is cheaper so they are going to cut rates to crash currency to raise fuel prices.
Although their industry on a life support because extreme energy price increases in the last years. And the government explicitly try to lower energy prices
In their opinion that's how they want to raise inflation

Fed operates the same way
 
kashirin said:
mild deflation is not bad.
technology operates in deflation for the last 200 years and it doesn't prevent investment

deflation is bad when you have excessive debt against assets- this is why Fed targets asset prices
and it's bad not because it's bad for the economy but because fed cronies loose money

it's that simple
but the Fed doesn't actually care where inflation comes from. they just want higher prices
so make no doubt - this tariffs is welcome development for the Fed
and assests can always be supported by additional money printing


imagine in Australia their central bank says - they have problem with inflation because fuel is cheaper and electricity is cheaper so they are going to cut rates to crash currency to raise fuel prices. In their opinion that's how they want to raise inflation

Fed operates the same way
More...

True - but technology gets cheaper because of investment in R&D not because of economic conditions.

If a new Audi were going to be cheaper by 3percent next year, would you buy one today?

Fuel is a bad example because the underlying is so volatile (outside of economic situations) so the fed largely ignores it.

Tarrifs are inflationary in the beginning as people spend now to beat the tarrif. But after they are enacted they are no longer inflationary.
 
newwurldmn said:
True - but technology gets cheaper because of investment in R&D not because of economic conditions.

If a new Audi were going to be cheaper by 3percent next year, would you buy one today?

Fuel is a bad example because the underlying is so volatile (outside of economic situations) so the fed largely ignores it.

Tarrifs are inflationary in the beginning as people spend now to beat the tarrif. But after they are enacted they are no longer inflationary.
More...


you're totally brainwashed - 1 year old car cheaper than new by 20%. this is a deflation
those who need or want new car don't care about 3% in a year as they primed to lose 20% anyway
 
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