It might be time for some of you to understand you got hoodwinked into believing how bad everything was going to be this year. The data was telling a different tune starting in fall 2022.
The US is now in recession
- Thread starter earth_imperator
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It might be time for some of you to understand you got hoodwinked into believing how bad everything was going to be this year. The data was telling a different tune starting in fall 2022.
Last year the market closed -19.95%, just a tick to avoid being a technical bear bear market. Excluding the pandemic, we haven’t had a bear market since 2008-2009. Earnings data started from Meta and Netflix, to General Mills and Tyson, were all missed.
This is the most unhappy rally ever, even for longs. No euphoria, no one popping champagnes, no relaxation, no joys, lot of bettings and concentration, it will deflate if not pop.
Hey, I got NVDA put assignments at 165 last September LOL, and it went down further to $140ish. I don’t feel happy. It is the same company making the same video cards as 6 months ago, what’s the justification? I bought TSLA when their Shanghai factory about to open, that was a story I can believe in, but not this time.
Where have you been? On vacation last year or something? The definition of a bear is not where the year ends.
2022 the SP opened ~4670. By second week of June it closed ~3670. 1000 points down is over 20%. After a bounce the next 2 months to ~4300, it dropped to ~3580 by beginning of October, so that's an extra 100 points lower than June.
You deny that we had a bear market last year?
Some perma-bears just aren't satisfied we'll be in a bear until we reach the COVID low of ~2300. Fug it, that's not good enough. Bring it back to October 1987. Will ~250 on the S&P be good enough for you to declare a bear market?
WTF!
Dude, first Google link you can find the data, open and close, -19.95%, technically no. Got the market out when JP told everyone the 50bps hike rather than 75.
https://www.hartfordfunds.com/pract...sations/managing-volatility/bear-markets.html
What data? Some list which shows the beginning of year to end of year? You going to believe the charts, or just some list put together by Ned David Research, whoever that is? Obviously they are WRONG. Just because it is listed at "Hartfordfunds.com" it all must be accurate and true? Jesus, you're weak and I cannot understand how blind you are. Don't you ask yourself questions?
Green arrow shows 2 months
Yellow arrow shows 1.25 months
Red arrow shows whole year?
Don't be daft.
Covid crash wasn’t expected, 2009 was a continuation. Economy has cycles, when fundamentals and sentiments are contradictory, you better be careful.
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S&P currently 6% off all time highs reached 19 months ago.
How much inflation has there been over the last 19 months, could easily be around 14%.
So S&P is currently down almost 20% from all time highs if you adjust for inflation.
How much inflation has there been over the last 19 months, could easily be around 14%.
So S&P is currently down almost 20% from all time highs if you adjust for inflation.
lol, using your analogy, eps is overstated 28%, 14 from corporate sales, 14 from expenses. p/e is 25x and now is 31x, well into the bubble territory. are you scared more?
The Treasury Department said Thursday that the budget gap from October through June was nearly $1.4 trillion — a 170% increase from the same period a year earlier. The federal government operates under a fiscal year that begins October 1.
The shortfall adds to an already large federal debt — estimated at more than $32 trillion. Financing that debt is increasingly expensive as a result of rising interest rates. Interest payments over the last nine months reached $652 billion — 25% more than during a same period a year ago.
The shortfall adds to an already large federal debt — estimated at more than $32 trillion. Financing that debt is increasingly expensive as a result of rising interest rates. Interest payments over the last nine months reached $652 billion — 25% more than during a same period a year ago.
For comparison the federal budget is 5.8 Trillion. 1 trillion is the debt interest... And soon it will be way more... Either hyperinflation soon or massive budget cuts or a lower combination of both. The US military is way too big anyways. Feelings tell me its social security spending that would be cut the most however.