The US is now in recession

[mervyn]

The U.S. economy is in a recession? Maybe people need to look at the facts & figures.

First-quarter economic growth was actually 2%, up from 1.3% first reported in major GDP revision
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/29/fir...ent-first-reported-in-major-gdp-revision.html

The source of the massive revision? Net trade saw a major increase as exports were revised from 0.58% to 0.86%. Imports were revised, too, from -0.57% to -0.28%. That equaled a net GDP gain of 0.58%, up from 0.01% following the last GDP revision, and it accounts for nearly all of the 1.3% to 2.0% revision this morning. There was no apparent cause for the sudden shift.

In other words, we shipped more, probablay weapons to Ukraine, energy to Europe and the Boeing deal with India. And we buy less, probaly consumers don't have money to spend.

 

[gwb-trading]

In other words, we shipped more, probablay weapons to Ukraine, energy to Europe and the boeing deal with India. And we buy less, probaly consumers don't have money to spend.

Personal Consumer Spending and Income in the U.S. keeps rising every months. There is no sign that consumers don't have money to spend.

https://www.bea.gov/news/2023/personal-income-and-outlays-may-2023

 

[mervyn]

Personal Consumer Spending and Income in the U.S. keeps rising every months. There is no sign that consumers don't have money to spend.

https://www.bea.gov/news/2023/personal-income-and-outlays-may-2023

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...vels-across-all-age-cate.374659/#post-5827670

Personlly I am not spending muhc lately, no big items anytime soon unless the market reset. I am with Mike Wilson bearsh on this, wall of worry.

 

[mervyn]

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/business-confidence

PMI is less than 50 since Oct 2022.

“Demand remains weak, production is slowing due to lack of work, and suppliers have capacity. There are signs of more employment reduction actions in the near term", Timothy Fiore, Chair of the ISM said.

 

[The_Krakenite]

The funny thing, is people are worried about a 'recession'. Fun fact: You can have both a recession AND an anti-recession within a great depression.

I didn't think on this much until I was watching Hugh Hendry get into stats on this. Ever since TGFC we've actually been in a depression not seen since 1930s. You can cheat people all you want with QE, but it doesn't change reality.

 

[murray t turtle]

No Fed doesn’t have that much power. It is the market. UK last quarter GDP is -0.3%, not sure they will have 2 consecutive quarters. Commodities, particularly foods are going up.

%%
TRUE;
sorry UK has so much socialism+ unfair unions, even though police unions maybe good idea with spineless city mayors
FOX news noted 88% chance of another rate hike this month [CME Fed Watch tool ]
I'm not worried about it\ but if one measures in old school money[ bid\ask silver] , SPY benchmark is not quite so HI LOL

 

[Nine_Ender]

The source of the massive revision? Net trade saw a major increase as exports were revised from 0.58% to 0.86%. Imports were revised, too, from -0.57% to -0.28%. That equaled a net GDP gain of 0.58%, up from 0.01% following the last GDP revision, and it accounts for nearly all of the 1.3% to 2.0% revision this morning. There was no apparent cause for the sudden shift.

In other words, we shipped more, probablay weapons to Ukraine, energy to Europe and the Boeing deal with India. And we buy less, probaly consumers don't have money to spend.

Consumer spending is very healthy and likely going to rise later this year. The whole inflation/recession story for 2023 was an overblown dud of a narrative, as I suggested it was last year. Even if central banks screw up by overdoing interest rates, as they are prone to do, it's going to be a soft landing that will only temporarily impact markets. 2024 should be a really strong year for NA economies for a variety of reasons I won't get into. Basically, when everyone went overly negative ( day traders, media, "experts" ) last year it was a signal to trade against sentiment. And that sentiment was really negative at the bottom points last year.

People have been trying way too hard to rationalize a really bad year in 2023 for markets, when the data was clearly saying otherwise even late summer 2022.

 

[Nine_Ender]

The funny thing, is people are worried about a 'recession'. Fun fact: You can have both a recession AND an anti-recession within a great depression.

I didn't think on this much until I was watching Hugh Hendry get into stats on this. Ever since TGFC we've actually been in a depression not seen since 1930s. You can cheat people all you want with QE, but it doesn't change reality.

You believe in too much nonsense. Reminds me of the guys in 2009/2010 on here saying we were in the early years of a "cyclical bear market".

 

[The_Krakenite]

You believe too much in flawed GDP metrics. I was listening to Taleb again today(Anti-Fragil), how the government just loves to cheat/inflate GDP by loading up on the debt of future generations. It is very easy to do so, yet people will keep pointing to the manipulated figures in an attempt to make reality look much better than it really is.

 

[mervyn]

Consumer spending is very healthy and likely going to rise later this year. The whole inflation/recession story for 2023 was an overblown dud of a narrative, as I suggested it was last year. Even if central banks screw up by overdoing interest rates, as they are prone to do, it's going to be a soft landing that will only temporarily impact markets. 2024 should be a really strong year for NA economies for a variety of reasons I won't get into. Basically, when everyone went overly negative ( day traders, media, "experts" ) last year it was a signal to trade against sentiment. And that sentiment was really negative at the bottom points last year.

People have been trying way too hard to rationalize a really bad year in 2023 for markets, when the data was clearly saying otherwise even late summer 2022.

Is this your "It is different this time argument."?

RSP YTD is just up 7 bucks while SPY is up 59 bucks. 2-10 spread today is 1.08%, fourth widest since 1980. 2 Year yield hits 16-year high.