The Ultimate E-mini S&P Day Trading Ideas

MarkBrown

MarkBrown

Another Hall of Fame worthy thread brought to you by Mark Brown :D

I would first like to thank Barron for hosting this forum in which hidden gems are mined at no cost to those seeking to improve their trading and others just starting out in the most difficult of endeavors.

The SP 500 has been chosen because of undeniable liquidity and if you ever are going to trade size this is the market to focus on. It is the only market I always trade others I dabble in but liquidity is paramount.

Shear size range and motion of the SP makes for an interesting playing field of a large variety of motives, methods and yes in some cases mathematical magic performed by some of the top minds at the top trading firms in the world. Yet a small individual trader setting at home can also make more money than they could with any other occupation.

Some people trade as a hobby because they love the challenge of "figuring it out" I fall into this category. Others traders are working for firms with agenda's of hedging stock portfolio's. In the middle of all this you have groups of traders working as teams to profit between what would be considered odd lot's and commercial whales. So there is a diverse cornucopia of individuals utilizing a variety of methods towards the successful goal of their own agenda's.
 
I agree there is going to be a shakeout it's going down further most likely. Below is a 21 day moving average band 2.5% above and below a centered average. On average the SP will stay below the band for about 8-12 days once penetrated which it has just done. I use to use this for trading naked option premium. Also presents some buying opportunity for those with cash to spend, but I would wait a few days to see how it shakes out.

R2xKgI.png


Below are the stats on the last time we went below this band. It lasted 8 days.

@ES 191002 2883.250 C Below Low. Band 1.0 Days : Total = 1071 Days Yr.Avg 18.25
@ES 191003 2914.500 C Below Low. Band 2.0 Days : Total = 1072 Days Yr.Avg 18.27
@ES 191004 2953.750 C Below Low. Band 3.0 Days : Total = 1073 Days Yr.Avg 18.29
@ES 191007 2940.250 C Below Low. Band 4.0 Days : Total = 1074 Days Yr.Avg 18.31
@ES 191008 2895.250 C Below Low. Band 5.0 Days : Total = 1075 Days Yr.Avg 18.33
@ES 191009 2921.750 C Below Low. Band 6.0 Days : Total = 1076 Days Yr.Avg 18.35
@ES 191010 2943.750 C Below Low. Band 7.0 Days : Total = 1077 Days Yr.Avg 18.37
@ES 191011 2973.500 C Below Low. Band 8.0 Days : Total = 1078 Days Yr.Avg 18.38

note the bright magenta bars you see are option expiration days, the red line is the 21 day moving average because there is an average of 21 trading days per month, and the green line is 2.5% below that center average and the magenta line is 2.5 % above the average. the idea is once a 5 line is penetrated how many days does it take to get back to the centered line. we count the days the points it travels to gain a continually rolling average so we can know what to expect as far as time and size of movement to expect.
 
Last edited:
Plotting VWAPs and std dev off of swing lows & highs - Very rarely will you see the market close outside of 2 std dev when plotted off of daily swing points, like it looks like it will today. I use this method on intraday time frames.

VWAP and std dev off of Swing Low-High.JPG
 
They said:
Plotting VWAPs and std dev off of swing lows & highs - Very rarely will you see the market close outside of 2 std dev when plotted off of daily swing points, like it looks like it will today. I use this method on intraday time frames.
More...

agreed i have a little facbook group on e-Mini S&P 500 Futures and i posted yesterday i was using the 1-2 std dev bands as well i have bands 10 points above and below hard coded for choppy days. today it has hugged the 2nd band perfectly.

personally i short above the vwap and buy below it but it just depends on how strong it looks. if there is some serious mo going on i do not fade the vwap i run with it on pullbacks of about 4 points.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top