Quote from Scientist:
What wonders me most is that while this stuff is so logical, nobody else has actually written about it.
For those here who have a copy of Larry Harris' "Trading & Exchanges", you will find all sorts of stuff in there (~650 pages!), but nothing too much that will really make you a good trader.
IB sent many (high-turnover) customers this fat book for free last year, and while I was thrilled at first, it just turned out to be another academical work on what's rather irrelevant and "matter of course" stuff on actual trading. Larry Harris, PhD, proclaimed "an expert in market microstructure" is a nice guy and I do like some of his work. He also holds various chairs and honours in the field of finance, is chief economist of the SEC and many other things.
Yet I'd beat the crap out of him in trading any day - for sure. Because most of the "science" is the really irrelevant stuff.
Funny that we got this book from IB, saying "We want you to succeed because our success depends on your success". Sure, we know that the people from IB are just as smart to traders' real needs as any other broker & co out there. All the great wizards that understand why markets move, but few of them know how to trade.
When I look for something on the price/volume relationship, I can't find anything useful in Harris' - or any other book for that matter.
Looks like I'll have to keep looking. Or write my own book...
Have a nice weekend!
Scientist
Your comments on the P,V relationship are the singular cornerstone of trading to make money.
Below, I have sketched out a sunnary list of items that are worth digesting to get a set of good NLP pictures regarding the P, V relation.
All price formations follow the P, V relation. By using it to check out any formation, you gain an understanding of why formations work so simply.
The P, V relationship is what clearly establishes thatmarket operating points migrate rather than rendomly move about.
The three basic questions that provide for vey efficient trading (extracting the full potential the market offers you) grow out of the P, V relationship. The Q's are: Where am I in the cycle? What is automatically next? How fast is the cycle progressing?
With regard to charts for trading (five min for commodities (intraday trading) and 30 min for equities (interday trading)), the longest volume bars dictate the trend diraction to you. For ES it changes 3 to 4 times a day usually (the typical W or M path through the day).
Look for volume change (decreasing to indicate trend endings, increasing to indicate trend continuation)
Look for the levels of volume during the three parts of the day. On ES the market pace is determined by volume levels. Fast paces (beginner trading requirement) require over 10 to 12.5k per 5 minutes; intermediate over 4.5 to 6k per 5 min; SCT trading above 2.5K per 5 min.
Volume below 2.5K per 5 min is a precursor for a new market condition. Within 1 or 2 bars after a VDU (less than 2.5K per 5 min) a volue BO will precipitate a Price BO. Enter 1 tick outside of the prior bar extreme. The market will take you in from you orders or you can hit the "market" T button.
The vernier for volume velocity is the DOM.
Volume preceeds price. A complete cycle of price includes TWO cycles of volume. This phenomena is the bane of most beginners and intermediates. The causal factor is that the P, V relationship is more complex than dealing with opposites. If a person has NLP pictures composed primarily of opposites he is screwed from becoming an expert or advanced intermediate.
Increasing volume indicates a price trend will continue.
On the other hand, decreasing volume indicates the existing price trend will change. The change will be to one of two other trend possibilities.
Steady volume is most frequently vry low relative volume and results in a 4 o'clock drift.
Volume dictates three possible price trends. The odds are, therefore, 1 in 3 at all times relative to NOW. This is the second most powerful basis for why the vast majority of traders are losers. (the first most is predicting habitually).