The question is when will it bust?I don't want to sound like a know it all. God knows I have lost millions of my own when I was much younger in my own acct. at M-L as a broker. Once, 1.3 mm in 15 minutes,in a limit move.However my assets are better protected now as I have worked in 71 nations since 1974 and seen the future from forces on the ground that gave me a totally different perspective of US markets.I scored my largest profits ever thru my Irrevocable Offshore Trust(legal IRS) in Gold, Oil, NG,Euro-USD-Yen-BP-AD-CD crosses and shorts/longs without stops and by pyramiding for over 7 years on the Euro.I am now flat to the markets in all aspects.Cash is KING, and I have no idea when it will happen...in a way that is playable with as much certainty as I need to feel( yes feel) as I have learned to pick my spots and be VERY patient. I am not a trader. I am a position builder. Taking it with a risk assessment and stop or counter Buy/Sell program to limit risk.Rarely using Derivatives. NO DOUBT OIL will burst, but when ?..OIL l(energy) is to a considerable extent a safe haven from USD destruction. The printing of money now, using T's to take in short term cash and pay short end curve interest with a return in depreciated USD's latter. A ruinous policy.So, ends another empire in world history. It ends not with a bang but a whimper.The internation corps. are already safe, as tax,investment policies by both parties have locked them into the same death spiral but without consequences because they know we must destroy the middle class and become a low cost -wage producer to be in a competitive position with emerging economies. We will still sell them armements, medical, and hi-tech,investments,fast food,etc. We will have a large economy but proportionately less dominant.The real middle class never existed until post WW2,so it's demise will be taken over by immigrants who will shut up and work for lower wages,benefits.The govt.will roll SS into the private sector along with Healthcare...the trillions in entitlements will pass from govt. responsibility to private market forces. Washed hands, ...towel please.FIN.
The Truth About Commodities, including Oil - Complete Speculation
- Thread starter ByLoSellHi
- Start date
Is an Oil Economy Sustainable?
In the long run, an economy that utilizes petroleum as a primary energy
source is not sustainable, because the amount of oil in the Earthâs crust is finite.
However, sustainability is a misleading concept, a chimera. No technology
since the birth of civilization has been sustainable. All have been replaced as
people devised better and more efficient technologies. The history of energy
use is largely one of substitution.
In the 19th century, the worldâs primary
energy source was wood. Around 1890, wood was replaced by coal. Coal
remained the worldâs largest source of energy until the 1960s when it was
replaced by oil. We have only just entered the petroleum age.
How long will it last? No one can predict the future, but the world
contains enough petroleum resources to last at least until the year 2100. This is
so far in the future that it would be ludicrous for us to try to anticipate what
energy sources our descendants will utilize. Over the next several decades the
world likely will continue to see short-term spikes in the price of oil, but these
will be caused by political instability and market interference â not by an
irreversible decline in supply.
David Deming of the University of Oklahomaâs School of Geology and
Geophysics is an Adjunct Scholar with the NCPA.
In the long run, an economy that utilizes petroleum as a primary energy
source is not sustainable, because the amount of oil in the Earthâs crust is finite.
However, sustainability is a misleading concept, a chimera. No technology
since the birth of civilization has been sustainable. All have been replaced as
people devised better and more efficient technologies. The history of energy
use is largely one of substitution.
In the 19th century, the worldâs primary
energy source was wood. Around 1890, wood was replaced by coal. Coal
remained the worldâs largest source of energy until the 1960s when it was
replaced by oil. We have only just entered the petroleum age.
How long will it last? No one can predict the future, but the world
contains enough petroleum resources to last at least until the year 2100. This is
so far in the future that it would be ludicrous for us to try to anticipate what
energy sources our descendants will utilize. Over the next several decades the
world likely will continue to see short-term spikes in the price of oil, but these
will be caused by political instability and market interference â not by an
irreversible decline in supply.
David Deming of the University of Oklahomaâs School of Geology and
Geophysics is an Adjunct Scholar with the NCPA.
1955-That was the year, as a H.S. freshman..my history teacher said " the world supply of oil will deplete by 2000". A statement although not entirely true ..the gist of which is the economic imperative by which the oil cartel will not allow us to move on to an alternative energy until they have squeezed every penny from every barrel of crude. They and their greedy partners( capitalism is not a moral dictum ,just a profitability driven eco-system) will not use their money to build a distribution network for LNG powered vehicles or extend pipelines to industrial use clients. The automakers could convert in 1year at least 50% of all vehicles if required by law. It's quite simple.The huge 150 year history of crude oil has built a VAST network of companies that would need to change in part or perhaps disappear for the LNG story to unfold.
Sorry, haven't read the thread, but this is my take:
Oil producing countries don't want to be paid in US dollars e.g. Iran.
So one way is to pay in Euros, another is in Gold, and may be they want a physical shipment of the currency or commodity, and as such the price of that payment is kept on being increased (e.g. Euro keeps appreciating, Gold keeps rising).
But, Take 2, the Hunt Brothers who cornered the Gold market, because the Arabs wanted the physical Gold, and supplied the oil at say $2 pb. After delivery, the Gold prices were reduced back down, so the Arabs ended up paying more for the Gold than the supply of oil.
Now the Energy suppliers get wise, and at the same time increase the oil and natural gas price, or reduce the supply (as was the case with Russia, a year or so ago).
So while commodity prices keep rising, and the energy suppliers keep asking for physical delivery, oil and natural gas prices should keep rising.
Oil producing countries don't want to be paid in US dollars e.g. Iran.
So one way is to pay in Euros, another is in Gold, and may be they want a physical shipment of the currency or commodity, and as such the price of that payment is kept on being increased (e.g. Euro keeps appreciating, Gold keeps rising).
But, Take 2, the Hunt Brothers who cornered the Gold market, because the Arabs wanted the physical Gold, and supplied the oil at say $2 pb. After delivery, the Gold prices were reduced back down, so the Arabs ended up paying more for the Gold than the supply of oil.
Now the Energy suppliers get wise, and at the same time increase the oil and natural gas price, or reduce the supply (as was the case with Russia, a year or so ago).
So while commodity prices keep rising, and the energy suppliers keep asking for physical delivery, oil and natural gas prices should keep rising.
Solution:
1. Oil and natural gas producers should ask for payment in US dollars.
2. Since (apparently) oil is running out, then the Oil producers should diversify as is the case with the UAE.
3. Because of the Global Warming situation, there is the possibility of going to alternative fuel sources.
1. Oil and natural gas producers should ask for payment in US dollars.
2. Since (apparently) oil is running out, then the Oil producers should diversify as is the case with the UAE.
3. Because of the Global Warming situation, there is the possibility of going to alternative fuel sources.