The Trouble With Scribbles
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
- Start date
Thank you for your posting. What I would like you to understand is that when I am posting charts, these are just to illustrate a system that is dynamic in time and allows the trader to use real time price with indicators to find entries, exits and especially, stops. No one is suggesting that anyone trade this system. It's informational only and shows an alternate view. The point that I have made successfully in this thread is that the Scribble Method is unremarkable in its ability to find entries, exits and stops. Actually it never defines stops at all and with risk management being the most important aspect of trading, the scribble method presentation is woefully inadequate. The students are all drawing the lines differently and in arbitrary fashion and this suggests that the method is highly subjective in nature. In addition, the proponents are taking small profits and aiming for a high win rate, many times pulling the plug before the real gains emerge. However, there are no real time trades posted, so one does not really know if the method has credibility or not. This is not about one system being better than the other--rather, all systems are bad without the full details and prudent risk/trade management. Scribbles are not the end all. The plan is deficient in its present form. Plan deficiency is trouble. There's trouble with scribbles.
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I am convinced that this DB Phoenix system is no better than random entries in the direction of the percieved trend on a chart. Therefore, I am willing to put up $100 for him or her to prove this wrong.
We will agree on a programmer, DB will provide the parameters of his system, i will then program a random entry system that buys or sells in the direction of the percieved trend on the chart-- all at my expense ofcourse. we will test on 5 years of data.
If he wins, he gets $100 and bragging rights. If the random system wins, DB agrees never to post on elite trader but does not owe me $$.
What a great bet, nothing to lose on his side except a bad habit.
Take it or be shamed.
surf
We will agree on a programmer, DB will provide the parameters of his system, i will then program a random entry system that buys or sells in the direction of the percieved trend on the chart-- all at my expense ofcourse. we will test on 5 years of data.
If he wins, he gets $100 and bragging rights. If the random system wins, DB agrees never to post on elite trader but does not owe me $$.
What a great bet, nothing to lose on his side except a bad habit.
Take it or be shamed.
surf
Well, so far the SLA is up over 20pts and the "grail system" is in the hole.
I see no reason to believe that the outcome will be any different this time. The SLA plays both the long and short side because it couldn't care less what price does; it just follows it. So the SLA was short the range (see the chart in the quote, above) and went long at the reversal off 4500. The SLA therefore can't help but outperform the "grail system", just as any decent swing-trader will outperform buy-and-hold.
This is not rocket science.
If you're taking these sla trades from the hourly interval, I see no reason why you can't call your trades in realtime like B1S2 does. A 30 second delay or a few ticks shouldn't make much of a difference in that timeframe.
Then we can actually compare and see whose methodolgy is really superior.
But just calling a range (even in foresight) and then using the benefit of hindsight to decide how you played the range, well....with respect, anybody can appear to look like a winning trader doing that.
And before you think i'm in some B1S2 fanclub, I don't see much of an 'edge' in the calls that he has made
Then we can actually compare and see whose methodolgy is really superior.
But just calling a range (even in foresight) and then using the benefit of hindsight to decide how you played the range, well....with respect, anybody can appear to look like a winning trader doing that.
And before you think i'm in some B1S2 fanclub, I don't see much of an 'edge' in the calls that he has made
There are only three ways to "play" a range: buy an upside breakout, sell a downside breakout, buy and sell reversals within the range. I posted a chart of the range. Anyone who doesn't understand "sell a downside breakout" or "buy an upside breakout" will not benefit from my saying "sell 16" or "buy 27" as by the time I've posted the "calls" the trade will be gone, which is the whole point of posting the charts ahead of time. If no one knows what to do with them, that is a far more serious problem than my not wasting the time to hold anonymous strangers' hands.
All of you need to grow up and take responsibility for your own trading. The key to success is not finding somebody to "follow" but to develop thoroughly-tested and consistently-profitable trading plans. The SLA is one such plan. Anyone who doubts that has only to study the material and apply the rules to any mean-reverting instrument. But study and application go for any plan. The SLA is hardly the only one, nor should the idea of trading breakout/retracements and reversals come as any sort of revelation to anyone who's been trading for more than a day. NoDoji's plan is based on breakouts and retracements. Is anybody using it? Has anybody even looked at it?
The fact that Trader X or Trader Y can't understand something this simple tells me pretty much all I need to know about Trader X and Trader Y.
I'm not anybodies fan at the moment, but just using logic for one second and your conclusion, can we not conclude that if you can't post one trade, then that should pretty much tell us all we need to know about you?
Are you kidding me? These two are hugely different! Its like saying telling someone to buy something when its low, and sell it when its high... sounds nice in theory, but not so much in practice.
If you actually gave us a framework for the entry method that you use (and not your SLA entry method since you clearly do not use RETs on a 1 min chart with 1 point entries), then we could actually test something. Without giving a firm number, its easy to say later that a breakout you didn't take, and that you treated it more like a reversal.
When price BO's by 2 points or 3 points, its very important to decide very quickly if you want to be part of the breakout, or part of the reversal back down since both of these happen just as often.