Very nice, tho your "SLA short" could be a bit higher. If you're going to stick with this, though, you should note for future reference that the halfway level for this whole move was/is at 77 (see "trader482's" chart from earlier this morning), so a tactic of going long if and when price moves past this level might be worth testing, though if you do, include various stops to protect yourself.
The Trouble With Scribbles
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
- Start date
Very nice, tho your "SLA short" could be a bit higher. If you're going to stick with this, though, you should note for future reference that the halfway level for this whole move was/is at 77 (see "trader482's" chart from earlier this morning), so a tactic of going long if and when price moves past this level might be worth testing, though if you do, include various stops to protect yourself.
Perhaps you could also share your rules about these 50% moves? There are many ways to draw a 50% move depending on the swing points you use. And if we go long above each one that goes back above 50%, that's lots of trades to be considering.
In fact, when you account for the fact that there are many ways to draw a DL and SL, and many ranges that you could use, and now 50% levels to be considered for taking trades, you can literally trade anywhere with any rule. The secret is knowing which to use and when.
The reason why I point all this out isn't because I think Db will finally respond this one time, its to show those that are trying to evaluate all of this that when you actually consider everything that Db teaches, its almost hard to make a decision about a trade. We failed to go higher many times today, reasons enough for shorts, but these are never mentioned. All that is ever mentioned is the one great trade from hours ago. But in real time, these decisions have to made, not after the fact when its obvious on a chart.
As a follow up to my post above, #752, I have marked up the 1 minute chart.
If we follow along and use the stuff that Db teaches us to look out for, there are many reasons to look for a short. We have that obvious R at 4390 that price initially rejects. This is an important level from the hourly chart on the 17th, so it better damn well be on our chart today. It ends up forming a range. It breaks above the R, but drops back down below... do we short? It drops below the range.. do we short? Price recovers to the 50% level of this range but can't continue higher... do we short?
When we almost reach 4396 but stop at 4395, a lower high, a failure to make a higher high... do we short? Surely we short here! But none of these work.
These are all legitimate trades that should be taken. If price dropped, you can damn well bet Db would be pointing out these opportunities, but since this isn't what happened, Db doesn't point them out. When you consider all of these things that we could be looking at and that we should be looking at, there is no way to claim 160 possible points, or 40 possible points today as he did because this is only possible in hindsight when you take the one perfect trade and don't take any other trades that might set up based on what he teaches us to look at. But if you are a trader, you have to take these trades because you don't know what will happen.
Your move Db. If you are silent, it just shows I'm right!
If we follow along and use the stuff that Db teaches us to look out for, there are many reasons to look for a short. We have that obvious R at 4390 that price initially rejects. This is an important level from the hourly chart on the 17th, so it better damn well be on our chart today. It ends up forming a range. It breaks above the R, but drops back down below... do we short? It drops below the range.. do we short? Price recovers to the 50% level of this range but can't continue higher... do we short?
When we almost reach 4396 but stop at 4395, a lower high, a failure to make a higher high... do we short? Surely we short here! But none of these work.
These are all legitimate trades that should be taken. If price dropped, you can damn well bet Db would be pointing out these opportunities, but since this isn't what happened, Db doesn't point them out. When you consider all of these things that we could be looking at and that we should be looking at, there is no way to claim 160 possible points, or 40 possible points today as he did because this is only possible in hindsight when you take the one perfect trade and don't take any other trades that might set up based on what he teaches us to look at. But if you are a trader, you have to take these trades because you don't know what will happen.
Your move Db. If you are silent, it just shows I'm right!
No disguises over here and no promises to how long I'll be around. I just like the simplicity of this method. For instance, here's the chart that I posted in the AM on Friday:
and here's the chart that I posted this morning:
Look at the difference between the price action around the light blue box on each chart. What does it tell you about the probable future direction of price?
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A protective stop on a trade you never claimed to take or posted an entry about? Oh please....
Maybe before you go to lunch, take a quick glance at the chart I posted above so you can think about a rebuttal.
I have looked at 50% levels before which swing points one uses makes them less than ideal.
What data source and quantitative software do you recommend for testing? You say this often, I am curious to know how you test and what data, timeframe, source and formulas are used to properly run the testing.
thanks,
surf
You might be interested in the posts of a guy named "Fluke". He picked up on Wyckoff and the SLA fairly easily and did so by himself. He only made a couple dozen posts but was then run off, or got tired of the trolls, which is in effect the same thing. In any case, the posts are still there. So you're not alone.