The Trouble With Scribbles

Astute price-action traders will note that we were involved in the same conundrum a few months ago: price dropped to the median of the weekly channel and seemed to hold there for weeks on end. However, if one provides the additional context of the daily channel, price held at that particular juncture for only 4-5 days:
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And rather than make it all the way to the bottom of the daily channel, price instead rallied up to and through the upper limit of the daily channel all the way to the upper limit of the weekly channel. Will this happen again? Maybe. Maybe not. The PA trader doesn't care one way or the other; he goes where price leads. Which is where the range comes in.

May I just add that this "last time" also directly coincided with a Fed statement on 1/28/2015 ("patient"). That isn't the case here but I wouldn't put it past the Fed to pull out the stops if things go south.
 
I too want 80% accuracy and at least 10x reward but with your document is not possible to achieve that.

Actually, it is. If you're genuinely interested, open up a journal and those who understand the material might help you. Otherwise, this will be my last reply to you.
 
May I just add that this "last time" also directly coincided with a Fed statement on 1/28/2015 ("patient"). That isn't the case here but I wouldn't put it past the Fed to pull out the stops if things go south.

If it gets to the lower limit of the daily trend channel, I'll be happy. It's not all that far away. And I wouldn't mind a return to those long daily swings for a few days. :)
 
Actually, it is. If you're genuinely interested, open up a journal and those who understand the material might help you. Otherwise, this will be my last reply to you.

Im sorry, opening a journal will only answer all those questions your document fails to, and I am not in the business of exposing my years of research and work.

I only wanted to show PABuster, a good friend and trader colleague, how you would fail to answer these key questions and expose how your work is in fact incomplete and lacking in major areas.

Last but not least, how incredulous must one be to claim or believe one can achieve 80% accuracy and over 10x Reward by reading a spammed pdf in public forums.

Hopefully this post ends our iteractions.
 
i changed my mind about protesting the mods banning. This stuff is just too ridiculous not to destroy its premise.

DB's new name should be the teflon poster. Shamed again and again, yet he never quits parroting the same old psychobabble--- unique to say the leeast.

I guess he thinks by saying it again and again it will come true ---

George Soros “Money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected.”

What could be more obvious than what is breathlessly parroted again and again by the price action parrot?
 
Oh how jealous I am ND that you were able to actually observe someone do this in real time. Was this in a trading room? Was this by being able to watch his screen or was he simply calling out/typing up trades as they occurred? I'm always curious about stuff like how quickly a trade would be bailed on. 5 seconds after entry... 30 seconds after entry? I know each situation is different, but given that the only trades ever shared for the most part are winners, I wonder what the losing trades or scratched trades look like.

You know... you're dead on when you told me way back when that I am searching for the perfect trade. But since all I ever see posted by the experts are perfect trades, I'm led to believe there are only perfect trades out there. :)

We were Skyping and calling our trades. He was trading CL and ES and his mindset was impeccable. He cut losers quickly, and if 3 losing trades in a row he stepped away to take a quick break and then came right back to it. I was very familiar with the price action setups he was taking advantage of. I wanted to trade like that and I'd tried in sim but just didn't have the focus or stamina for it at all.

(Hope you're doing well, PA!)
 
We were Skyping and calling our trades. He was trading CL and ES and his mindset was impeccable. He cut losers quickly, and if 3 losing trades in a row he stepped away to take a quick break and then came right back to it. I was very familiar with the price action setups he was taking advantage of. I wanted to trade like that and I'd tried in sim but just didn't have the focus or stamina for it at all.

(Hope you're doing well, PA!)
Thanks for this ND. Its interesting that he has a whole 21 posts here and yet made such an impact as I see a few people here have given him praise.

Cutting losers quickly is something that I also see I should have also done when reviewing my charts these past few months. That, and letting winners run of course. :)

I don't want to subscribe to B1S2's notion that trade management is all one needs as I do believe Db when he says that all this does is prolong and draw out the eventual account blowup if you don't actually have an edge. But its also obvious that without trade management, and this often means just leaving the trade alone to either hit profit or stop, great entries can still leave you losing money if you fiddle too much with it after already in a trade.
 
Thanks for this ND. Its interesting that he has a whole 21 posts here and yet made such an impact as I see a few people here have given him praise.

Cutting losers quickly is something that I also see I should have also done when reviewing my charts these past few months. That, and letting winners run of course. :)

I don't want to subscribe to B1S2's notion that trade management is all one needs as I do believe Db when he says that all this does is prolong and draw out the eventual account blowup if you don't actually have an edge. But its also obvious that without trade management, and this often means just leaving the trade alone to either hit profit or stop, great entries can still leave you losing money if you fiddle too much with it after already in a trade.

KP, IMO, atleast from looking at your trades you need to work on 3 major things: entries, exits, and fear.

3 point stops are only going to work if you have great entries, you're hopping on things too early (when 7/10 times the market is just going to shake you out with a small stop), and you're exiting way too early based on fear.

Let it retrace a bit and then enter and/or anticipate the shakeout and enter at a lower limit. Don't chase.
 
KP, IMO, atleast from looking at your trades you need to work on 3 major things: entries, exits, and fear.

3 point stops are only going to work if you have great entries, you're hopping on things too early (when 7/10 times the market is just going to shake you out with a small stop), and you're exiting way too early based on fear.

Let it retrace a bit and then enter and/or anticipate the shakeout and enter at a lower limit. Don't chase.
I had a bit of a chuckle when I read this because entries, exits and fear is about all there is, so essentially I have to work on the whole thing! LOL

In the past few weeks I have managed to actually get into good trades and get my 10 point target (many of these went much further, but I just took it when when the target was hit without moving it). Also, many trades I closed out that would eventually hit the target because price went against me a bit, and so given the opportunity to close it out at BE, I've taken that opportunity, even though I would have gotten the full target if I just left it alone. On Friday, I unfortunately also started working with 2 point stops because I do see often that when the trade goes against me 2 points, it also goes against me 3 points, so why waste that extra point, but of course, on Friday I got into a long fairly early at the bottom, stopped out for 2 points twice, and never did ride it back up. Had I been using the original 3 point stop, I either would have saved the two 2 point stop outs, hence lost 4 points, and actually ahve gotten 5 or 10 points profit.

Fear is absolutely the overriding issue, and even though I will admit that there isn't a solid trading plan just yet, it almost seems like if I just leave the damn trade alone and let the trade either hit my stop, which I'm happy to do, but don't let it hit the profit target, then even an amazing trading plan wont help. But just the fact that I could have a few days with 10 points profit is actually a big step.

I think for me, tight stops, and the ability to re-enter will suit my personality better as opposed to larger stops. The idea is to trade more size, and having to use a 5 point or greater stop just wouldn't be smart with more contracts. So if anything, I'd like to practice better entries and re-entries if need be.
 
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