The Trouble With Scribbles

There is no such thing as a "real-time call" on a message board.

The trade was posted in advance, if one knows how to enter a range breakout. If he doesn't, then whatever else he may post is most likely nonsense.
 
I see the problem now:

Buy1Sell2 said:
--03/23/15 Mon. Afterhours PM. Short 2095.50. Initial protective buy stop is 2113.00 basis June
--03/24/15 Tues. Afterhours PM. Price is 2084.00. Stop will remain the same. Not enough movement yet for stop to be lowered.
--03/25/15 Wed RTH. Price 2058.50. Will stay short for now. Same stop. Will be lowering stop soon.
--03/30/15 Mon Afterhours PM. Price is 2071.50. Staying short now. Have not changed stop yet.
--03/31/15 Tues Afterhours PM. Price is 2042.75. Staying short for now. Same stop at the moment.
--04/03/15. Good Friday close. Price is 2039.75. Still Short. Price has not moved enough yet to lower my stop. I had thought perhaps I would have had a chance to lower it, but not so far. Stop out levels would all be in the noise.
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He missed the entire move as he remained short, and price is only 15pts away from his entry.

Caca pasa.

(P.S. He has me on Ignore; this is for the benefit of the rest of you.)
 
What you need to see Gears is that the scribbles that you are being taught are not the path to success. The way you'll be successful is with a simple money /risk management scheme which includes letting winners run. The educators here are playing on the human emotion to "be right all the time". Successful trading is counter-intuitive in that the real money is in riding winners with a possibly less than exemplary win rate. --it doesn't mean that you won't be successful with the scribble method, but your success will be defined by losing a little when wrong, and winning a lot when right.---not by the scribble method.
 
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I'm still short from 4275.25, but thanks to Buy1Sell2 I prudently selected a 125 point stop loss so I am still in the game :rolleyes: with almost 50 points to spare!o_O


In all seriousness, this is such a silly thread, imo.
 
fortydraws said:
I'm still short from 4275.25, but thanks to Buy1Sell2 I prudently selected a 125 point stop loss so I am still in the game :rolleyes: with almost 50 points to spare!o_O


In all seriousness, this is such a silly thread, imo.
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Not any sillier than any of the other ego threads here.

I never stop being impressed by the "professionals" on this site who have no idea how to find and define a range, much less enter a breakout from it. I mean, how hard is that, especially when I provide the range for them? Before the open. In advance. Ahead of time. And yet the SLA/AMT is all nonsense.

:rolleyes:

Well, the Foresight thread got 150 views today. Let's hope some of those people took it seriously.

Every act of conscious learning requires the willingness to suffer an injury to one's self-esteem. That is why young children, before they are aware of their own self-importance, learn so easily; and why older persons, especially if vain or important, cannot learn at all.

-- Thomas Szasz
 
Here we have a posting of backtested results that a scribble student conducted on charts in excess of 1 yr old. This now serves as confirmation that the method is designed with only high winrate in mind. The student is only seeing what he wants to see here and "taking" trades that only serve to inflate the results. This is curve fitting at it's best. There are some small losing days thrown in as well for effect. Common sense would tell you that if this percentage increase could be made from this method in 100 short term trades, that A) the educators would not be educating here. and B) the educators would not be educating here.
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Here is a tremendous example of a scribble student over-analyzing in hindsight and indicating what they "would have done". This is part and parcel of why the observation stage of the scribble method is an absolute waste of time. Curve fitting. You never see a scribbler trading in real time. It's always in hindsight. This is a real problem for people who may be interested in seeing if the method has any merit. The trades must be taken in real time. There is no other way to see if a method works. Anything less is pie in the sky.
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-After the market broke out above the range, I would have perceived that as bullish and entered long on the first retracement
-When the first demand line was broken, it wasn't that worrying because all 4 bars after the break, even though they didn't make much upward progress, closed well off their lows indicating to me that the balance of s/d still favored the bulls, I would have stayed long
-The market tried to break out at B but didn't get very far...in fact, the bar that made the high reversed all of the gains and closed back below the high at A....this is a false breakout and makes me think the balance of s/d is shifting back in favor of the bears
-When the demand line (the 2nd one) broke on the next bar, it was broken by a narrower range bar with slightly lower volume so I would have held long
-The next bar started looking like we were going much lower, volume picked up and it took out the swing low at 4257...this would have shaken me out of the long
-After seeing my exit bar turn right around and close on its high (on stronger volume), I would have seen that bar as a spring (or false breakout of the swing low) and re-entered long when the market went above the high of the spring bar---
-The RTH opened and the market sold off and broke the 3rd trend line. If this 15m chart was all I was looking at, I might have exited the long since the market took out the minor low at 4259....if I had been watching the 1m or 2m chart, I'm not sure I would have been so quick to exit though. The market traded down to the low at 4259 and clearly stalled out. When it took out the low, it was only by a few ticks and it didn't look like the bears were in firm control...also, it wasn't a very significant low anyway
-If I had exited the long on the opening bar, I would have re-entered long when the market took out the high of that bar
-I would still be in the trade and up quite a few points--------------------
 
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