The Trouble With Scribbles

Here we have a recent chart posting from a scribble student where they have analyzed what trades could have been made. They appear to have made a decent gain on the short side here although the entry was late as compared to if taken when the fresh downside momentum occurred. There are issues on the long side causing the pupil to identify two starts and stops, before getting in a third time, albeit at a higher price and then the trade was finally allowed to run. There was a comment made about traders going below previous low, but this erroneous information since the previous low was never breached. This trade should have been let run from the beginning, not the third try. Again, trade management and stop out levels are not discussed or shown. The scribble method does not show superior results to other systems.
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k p said:
Actually, this is I think where you are quite wrong and something that I can confidently say through my own testing. On many days, price will often turn at an overnight high or previous day high, or overnight low, or previous day low.
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Or it goes through the level.
 
Even the most brilliant mathematical geniuses will never be able to tell us what the future holds. In the end, what matters is the quality of our decisions in the face of uncertainty.

-- Peter L. Bernstein
 
Then if price goes through sometimes without reversing as you'd expect, then who cares.. its just one failed trade and hopefully a small loss.
 
k p said:
Then if price goes through sometimes without reversing as you'd expect, then who cares.. its just one failed trade and hopefully a small loss.
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Correct. you have now shown that the scribble method is unenlightening at best and that the real edge in trading is capital/trade management. --Appreesh.
 
Since this thread receives so many views and yet there are so few questions, i.e., none, I'm going to assume that even beginners understand that "being right" is just as important to BS's approach as any other. He claims that the "real edge" in trading lay in capital and trade management. But then there are those indicators. And all those aligned bar intervals. If there is so little concern about being right, why go through all that?

Fact is, unless one is very right, and regularly, and often, the BS approach can't work. The account will be gradually eaten away until -- while it won't "blow up" -- there will be so little left that the trader won't even be able to cover commissions. It's simple arithmetic. And psychologically, it will be devastating.

I'll assume that all of this is simply disingenuous since BS has never read the material and doesn't know the rules, much less the process, and since he has me on Ignore, it is unlikely that he ever will. But it is important that onlookers understand that there is far less "transparency" to BS' method than to the SLA/AMT.
 
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