The Trouble With Scribbles

[dbphoenix]

If you can't state for definite what price will do in the next 5 minutes, then it proves that price is more random than not. I didn't say that we can't extract sense from its randomness, I trade patterns myself. But, I couldn't tell you what the performance will be in the future, only the past. That's why I agree with B1 on the notion that once you are right and move with a market it's imperative to try and stay with that move.

What price will do in the next five minutes may be unknowable, but that doesn't make it random. And that you can't say what price will do in the future does not mean that no one can.

If you're not interested in Auction Market Theory, that's fine. It's your money. But it's hardly secret knowledge. Hasn't been for at least five thousand years.

As for B1S2 being right, he wasn't very right about that short. If he understood AMT, he may have called it much sooner.

 

[Eddiemorra]

breakout out soon after the open would have been a good one. But there wasn't much of a retrace to get on board, and I'm still not sure how to play it without waiting for a retrace - i.e how many ticks past the level can you consider it has broken and jump in?
You told me a few days ago that 2 ticks entry is outside of your risk tolerance.
So do you wait until it has broken out of the range by, say. 6 ticks or something?
Where did you go long on that break soon after teh open, DB?

 

[dbphoenix]

breakout out soon after the open would have been a good one. But there wasn't much of a retrace to get on board, and I'm still not sure how to play it without waiting for a retrace - i.e how many ticks past the level can you consider it has broken and jump in?

You told me a few days ago that 2 ticks entry is outside of your risk tolerance.

So do you wait until it has broken out of the range by, say. 6 ticks or something?
Where did you go long on that break soon after teh open, DB?

I understand your fear, and I had hoped that it would have become clear with all the posts and counterposts about ticks and entries that it doesn't matter. And anyone who isn't just demo trading should understand that.

It's all well and good to decide that one wants to enter one tick above the range or two or three or six, but in real life, it doesn't work that way. If you use a market order, you may not and probably won't enter anywhere near what you had "decided" on. And if a specific entry is important to you no matter what, the only way of getting it is a stoplimit entry. And in a fast-moving market, the odds of getting filled are slim, particular at the open.

The question, then, is do you want to be in the trade or not? If you do, take it. Then focus on potential damage control and managing the trade. There's no risk and nothing to manage if you're not in the trade, but then there's no potential reward, either.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

breakout out soon after the open would have been a good one. But there wasn't much of a retrace to get on board, and I'm still not sure how to play it without waiting for a retrace - i.e how many ticks past the level can you consider it has broken and jump in?
You told me a few days ago that 2 ticks entry is outside of your risk tolerance.
So do you wait until it has broken out of the range by, say. 6 ticks or something?
Where did you go long on that break soon after teh open, DB?

Very good. This is why I had mentioned earlier that trades needed to be taken on the 5 and the 1 today since the 15 and 60 were so overbought. Ill post a chart later of the 15 min chart showing that there was no retrace to buy and if a trader had already been long, then the stop was 4409. The 15 offered just one buy today and that was premarket. Shorter term charts than the 15 showed the reversal clearly. I am not day trading so I typically would not see them, but if you are day trading, it's best to have several time frames open at once. In hindsight here, the reversal is very clear on short term charts. I trade the daily chart as my entry/exit vehicle.

 

[dbphoenix]

I'll point out, again, that I did not start this thread. It was begun by B1S2 to demonstrate the superiority of whatever it is he does over the SLA/AMT. But so far, after nearly 400 posts, all he's managed to do is demonstrate the superiority of the SLA/AMT over the B1S2 "method".

As this thread is here, I will be happy to answer the questions of those who are interested enough in the SLA/AMT to read the material. All 20pp of it (plus charts). Those who do not read the material are not likely to understand my answers anyway as I see no point in repeating, again, what is clearly stated, with examples, in the pdf, and will not do so.

As for Auction Market Theory, those who have read the material ought to be able to state, now, the most likely level price will reach tomorrow or the next day. Not the guaranteed level. The most likely level. Or even levels. Those who have read the material and reviewed the month's worth of charts in the Foresight thread ought to be more than able to find a range and plot its upper and lower limits. Those who can find a range and plot its upper and lower limits yet are too afraid to enter the trade should study Appendix F in the pdf.

Those who have no interest in any of this are of course free to trade in whatever manner best suits them and good luck.

Those who are interested are welcome to ask questions and I will do my best to answer them, even if the answer doesn't amount to much more than a referral to the pdf.

 

[candles]

breakout out soon after the open would have been a good one. But there wasn't much of a retrace to get on board, and I'm still not sure how to play it without waiting for a retrace - i.e how many ticks past the level can you consider it has broken and jump in?
You told me a few days ago that 2 ticks entry is outside of your risk tolerance.
So do you wait until it has broken out of the range by, say. 6 ticks or something?
Where did you go long on that break soon after teh open, DB?

You're not gonna get a straight answer out of him! Give up

 

[Eddiemorra]

I understand your fear, and I had hoped that it would have become clear with all the posts and counterposts about ticks and entries that it doesn't matter. And anyone who isn't just demo trading should understand that.

It's all well and good to decide that one wants to enter one tick above the range or two or three or six, but in real life, it doesn't work that way. If you use a market order, you may not and probably won't enter anywhere near what you had "decided" on. And if a specific entry is important to you no matter what, the only way of getting it is a stoplimit entry. And in a fast-moving market, the odds of getting filled are slim, particular at the open.

The question, then, is do you want to be in the trade or not? If you do, take it. Then focus on potential damage control and managing the trade. There's no risk and nothing to manage if you're not in the trade, but then there's no potential reward, either.

I understand that you might not get the price you want.. That's ok.
And let assume that of course one 'wants to be in the trade'. )Why would someone NOT want to be in a valid trade setup if they have an 'edge'?)

I'm just unsure of how one trades the breakout. I assumed that price had to actually trade outside of the range before one takes the trade?
You're telling me that it's not about a set number of ticks.
When you said that a ''break of 2 ticks isn't enough'', (unless I missunderstood what you meant when you mentioned 2 ticks entry being 'outside of your risk tolerance'), I assumed that that implied that at some point there was a number that qualified as a confirmed 'break'

But if it's nothing to do with that, then what?
You're watching price trade in a range:
Eyes glued to the screen
As per the rules, you are looking to trade the breakout.
Price begins to trade outside of the range by a few ticks.
When do you take the trade? What are you waiting to see or for price to do???
If there are no rules, is it just some sort of 6th sense or instinct which is why you can't explain it to me?
Regards.

 

[fortydraws]

I'm just unsure of how one trades the breakout.

Eddie, have you read the .pdf?

 

[Eddiemorra]

Eddie, have you read the .pdf?

Yes.
I have an idea of how he draws channels. And I kind of get how to trade the line breaks/SLA.
Kind of.
But as far as actually entering trade from levels and breakouts etc. I didn't see much in the way of rules for entry and exactly where to take trades and what one needs to see with their eyes

 

[dbphoenix]

Yes.
I have an idea of how he draws channels. And I kind of get how to trade the line breaks/SLA.
Kind of.

But as far as actually entering trade from levels and breakouts etc. I didn't see much in the way of rules for entry and exactly where to take trades and what one needs to see with their eyes

What was the upper limit of this morning's pre-mkt range?