The TREND is your friend.. The biggest lie ever!

[achilles28]

What do u call a dollar move in oil? Or a penny move in forex? Or a ten point drop in the es? These are not trends?

These threads baffle me. I see the market in two terms. Trend or range. That's it. Reversal is the beginning of a new trend. Consolidation a range. Keep it simple right

 

[lawrence-lugar]

ET has a habit of being vague in an attempt to look smart, it does not really work for everyone, just saying

-- there's a fine line between wanting to genuinely help people...but also not reveal your exact strategy or preferred way of trading.
(...this is a relatively private world, people don't like to be scrutinized or analyzed )

...and besides, you can generally help people more...in teaching them the philosophy of life, or trading,...it builds character and foundation...rather than just telling them to do this or that, and you will make money
(kind of like the Karate Kid 1984 movie...with Mr Miyaga and Daniel San)

 

[i am nobody]

RN, I always think the market is always out to get us.. So when I trade, I try to put my mind into a person that's trying to screw me over.. I asked questions like...What would he do if he wanted to screw me over? Is it possible that he wants me to believe that there is a trend and then trap me at the top.. so he can reverse the market and take all my money..

Do you get it now? This is how I think.. So when I see the market trending up and then it reverses and wipes out the whole trend.. what else should I call this? I call these fake trends..
It's just the way I think.. You can call them whatever you like..

There is a story that explains your way of thinking:
A man was riding on a bicycle when he noticed that he had a flat tyre. Then he noticed that he had no pump to inflate it again. Luckily enough he saw on the horizon a house and decide to walk to this house and ask this people if they could help him. When he was walking already a few minutes he started to think:

• I hope somebody will be home there...
• I hope this people will have a pump....
• I hope this pump will fit my tyres...
• But what if these people are no friendly and don't want to help me...
• Maybe these people will not want to help me....
• .......

When he finally arrived at the door and somebody opened the door he shouted at the man: I don't want your damned pump anymore!

 

[Aj2014]

ET has a habit of being vague in an attempt to look smart, it does not really work for everyone, just saying

I'm not sure if you're referring to the same thing, but i've personally noticed a huge increase in the number of short, snappy, vague replies in various threads that are clearly designed to imply that the author of the post has sussed the game of trading, and has a razor sharp edge that makes them buckets of money every day, but without actually saying anything. There's loads of them!
I'm sure some most be lying since we can't ALL be making consistent profits, but there's no real way of separating them through their posts, as they're all the same, so you never know whose lying and trying to look smart, and who's genuine! lol

 

[benwm]

Very interesting thread and Thanks to MarketAddict for replying to my earlier post. But right now I'm off to Venice for a few days with the wife so I don't give a s**t about whether markets trend or not at the moment!!

Will rejoin this thread in a week's time...

 

[learner2007]

Interesting to see in this thread how many different opinions there are as to what establishes a trend, and also how many traders there are asking for a definition or have doubts. Also, there is no mention of the basic textbook definition of what makes up a trend, even though trend lines are to be seen everywhere outlining trends. Anyway, here's my 2 cents.

There are basically 4 trends in a bull/bear market. The primary, intermediate, minor and sub-minor trends. The initial wave following a reversal of the primary trend, or that following a correction in an established trend, does not in itself qualify as a trend. The reason being that a trend requires an initial move followed by a corrective move of say one to two thirds of the initial move which is then followed by a move in the direction of the initial move that equals or exceeds the high/low of the initial move. This can be seen in the attached where the trend is established when the price movement reaches 'D', and not before. True, the move from e or C is in the same direction as that of A to B, but has not yet proved its strength to continue the A to B movement. So until D is reached or exceeded, there is no trend.
However, that is not to say that entry opportunities will not exist between C and D. But just for the purpose of defining a trend, D must be reached first.
I so often see trend lines that have been drawn, incorrectly IMHO, when the price has moved somewhat away from 'e', and hear of trades made around 'f' based on what is thought to be an established trend. That may work out. However, too often the price movement will move into a time consuming consolidation before continuing through D, or will result in the failure to continue as seen in the second chart.
In a variation of the one to two thirds retracement of the initial move, a narrow consolidation is often seen at the level of B. But once you have a breakout from that consolidation and D is established, you have a trend.
Actually, in the first chart you have both a retracement and a triangle pattern.

Based on this method of finding a trend, the 'it's all in hindsight' claims made by the guys on the other side of the fence won't hold up, as the move to D establishes a trend that can be seen in real time in any time frame and is the first opportunity to draw a 'correct'
trend line, IMHO.

 

[i am nobody]

I'm sure some most be lying since we can't ALL be making consistent profits, but there's no real way of separating them through their posts, as they're all the same, so you never know whose lying and trying to look smart, and who's genuine! lol

If you read carefully you can already eliminate a lot of them. At least if you are an experienced trader yourself.

More important then knowing if they are really profitable is to study the information they post. Because that's the only thing that can be valuable for you.

 

[MarketAddict]

[Business iE="schizo, post: 4201334, member: 105578"]Instead, shouldn't you be little more logical? It would save you from needlessly hating the world.

Listen, trend isn't formed because someone or some entity is "trying to screw me" behind my back. Trend is formed when the demand outweighs the supply (UPTREND) or when the supply overwhelms the demand (DOWNTREND). In a congestion, both the demand and the supply is more or less even. As such, think of it in terms of who has the upper hand at the moment. I like the analogy of running water flowing through my fingers. You can palpably feel the direction of the flow crossing through your fingers.

Granted, this is easier said than done. Detecting trends ain't easy by all means. What's especially difficult is when you're flooded with questions like "Damn, is this a trend or just another chop?" But there is a way to make the distinction between the two and play both the trends and congestions successfully.[/QUOTE]

Business itself isn't logical so why do I have to think that way..? You will be surprised what happens behind the scene... But at the end of the day it doesn't matter how I think.. The only thing matters is making money from the market.. Focus on that..

 

[Chubbly]

If you are wondering how Trend following funds are doing here is a good blog that tracks the larger funds. Right now they are at -0.55% for the year....

http://www.automated-trading-system.com/trend-following-wizards-september/

 

[Redneck]

A few thoughts

Seems few have issue with identifying / trading a range (horizontal in nature)

Try thinking of trend - as a range - on the diagonal

The same mechanics apply

==============================

Trends are for price movement - which the only way profit is made

Particular moves are meant for "entrapment"


The whole supply / demand thing - who the hell knows other than the ones entering the trades (and I don't mean you or me podunk traders)

=========================

Intraday..., trade moves -> which may.., or may not - coincide with "the trend"

"The trend" - is established / maintained by the BSDs

Identify "the trend" - the same way you would a range - it works

Intermediary trend identification - also works the same - and is meant for the same purpose

fwiw


No I did not supply specifics - but neither am I going to tell you when to mash your mouse button

Do the work - I had to


RN