The TREND is your friend.. The biggest lie ever!

[PABuster]

Think about a signal that you want to go long or short. Consider how many get killed if that fails. That's an edge. Don't expect it to work 100%.

 

[NoDoji]

Hi NoDoji, wouldn't that depend on your definition of a trending move and the time frame you're looking at? BTW, how would you define a trending move? 2 LHs and 2 HHs. 2 LLs and 2 LHs? Or something more detailed? Thanks.

I look for a trend line breakout pullback (reversal signal) and off that a higher high (longs) or lower low (shorts). At that point I assume price will seek a key level in the direction of the initial TL breakout. If you have no idea how to enter when this happens, drill down to a 1-min chart and buy where you feel like selling (in an uptrend) or sell where you feel like buying (in a downtrend). These feelings tend to occur during pullbacks after the new highs/lows happen.

As soon as you get that feeling that the trend is truly reversing during a pullback, buy/sell in direction of the trend.

 

[ubo]

Thanks NoDoji, that's two different situation you're referring to? The first is bopb trend reversal and the second is trend following breakouts from last high or low.

 

[MarketAddict]

Interesting post. Thanks for sharing.

Broadly agree with categorization, but please could you explain a semi trend? Is that what others would call a weak trend, or do you mean more of a choppy trend? Do you decide which state the market is in using a discretionary approach or have you mathematically defined rules to determine each state?

And isn't the market trending 100% of the time...with respect to some timeframe? (Of course, I'm just talking semantics here!)

1) Bro, are you trying to make me do work? You know that I'm lazy lol... Joking of course.. I think .. I attached some pictures below explaining the trends..

2) I hate being a discretionary trader.. Bill gates doesn't make billions because he is discretionary.. You need a system or plan.. or Whatever you want to call it..

3) For day traders, NO the market isn't always trending.. Let me repeat that again..
For day traders, NO the market isn't always trending..

This is the trap that most people fall into.. They always want to study trends.. Or come up with a system that trades the trend.. If you want to trade the trend then fine, but at least try to understand how to read chop or ranges.. You will never survive if you don't.

Like I said before, people think temporary movements are trends.. They are not.. Don't fall for that.. Because you are always going to get chopped up and the market will reverse on you.. 100% guaranteed!

 

[i am nobody]

3) For day traders, NO the market isn't always trending.. Let me repeat that again..
For day traders, NO the market isn't always trending..

The market does not need to trend all the time to make money. Just trade when it is trending and stay out if it is not. Not trading is also trading.

There is no trap at all. Trends do exist and should be exploited.

Use simple logic like children do, buy low and sell high,that is very clear:
buy at 1
sell and reverse at 2
buy and reverse at 3
sell and reverse at 4
buy and reverse at 5

When you see the chart it is very clear IN HINDSIGHT
The only thing you should try to do as trader is to find these turning points in a consistent and mathematical way in foresight. That's all. The logic is very simple. Put it in practice might be less evident.
But hey we are all ELITE TRADERS, NOT?

 

[hitchslap]

Use simple logic like children do, buy low and sell high,that is very clear:
buy at 1
sell and reverse at 2
buy and reverse at 3
sell and reverse at 4
buy and reverse at 5

exactly.
Or like this:

 

[i am nobody]

Or like this:

your posting and chart confirms that it works perfectly.... in hindsight.
Now the next step: foresight.

 

[vinc]

Trade the trend, avoid the chop.

blah,blah,blah..it is equal to saying make money, don't lose money!! it takes hard work and if you are lazy you won't make it!! great stuff!! great advice!)
knowing when to separate the two / trend/ chop/ would mean making money in both a trend and in a chop.. probably not even Simons could do it and by no means would anybody consider him lazy but we know that you might be of different opinion here try not to spit further than 2 meters away and I'll keep my distance
my guess is we won't manage with this never ending issue without a definition of a trend..that's because there is 5 or more white day candles behind us doesn't constitute an up trend..what one needs is a workable definition of a trend that statistically gives him an edge - say 5 white ones and we have a trend, than we do this and that, it worked before.. now we have 5 candles up - do we have a trend?? well, not necessarily ..but according to OUR DEFINITION there IS A CHANCE that we are in a trend..so a trend in this sense can only be understood as a statistically possible ocurrence .. not a thing which can be taken FOR SURE..So, say there is a 5 month period of prices going up - are we in an up trend?? I wouldn't say so unless it fulfills OUR DEFINITION OF A TRENDING MARKET which, I need to stress it again, must be objectively checked..
in other words one needs a working system
just by looking in hindsight without a previous research you are unable to say with 51% accuracy if the market is trending at the moment or it isn't.. you can never be 100% sure imo..and one more thing - the same applies to a chop..
if there is 49% probability of a trend acc. to your definition again doesn't mean that there is 51% chance of a chop as there might be some other definitions of a trend which might work as well and which you are unaware of..somehow people think it's easier to define a trend rather than a chop but maybe it isn't so? for me they are both terribly difficult , but maybe I'm the lazy one
well, enough of me

 

[J_Smith]

 

[schizo]

If you configure your automation to focus on Time & Measurement, as opposed to Levels & Lines, then you should see a vast improvement.

I like your idea about automating, but stats show that no system is consistent, the reason being psychology!

So, it makes perfect sense to develop and test your logic with reverse engineering - start by using Time as your first condition, then add conditios based on MEASURED MOVES across different timeframes - no matter what timeframe you look at, price will always be in the same place - what you need to work out is the max and min "areas" that price will go next, based on MM's - you will then have a system that is repeatable enough so that you will consistently make money using it.

You have a major advantage over most with the ability to programme, as your biggest obstacle is psychological - remove that and you can quickly turn your 200 per day into 2K per day.

The OP is mostly correct, in that "most" of what you read in books will not help you make money - whenever the casino changes the odds a very small bit, for promotions or competition, it usually costs them a lot more than they thought it would - to never change your odds you must remove the psychological barriers.

J_S

Can you elaborate for this noob what you mean by MEASURED MOVE? What exactly am I to see? Once spotted, what am I supposed to do?

Also what do you mean by TIME?