The TREND is your friend.. The biggest lie ever!

[K-Pia]

Averaging down isn't for losers.. It's for experience traders with big accounts..

Agree. To average down can be profitable.
As it can blow up an account at the speed of light.
One can average down without being unreasonable.
But it's foolish to average down for avoiding a loss at all cost.
It's foolish to average down when we know we're on the wrong side.
It's foolish to average down when we're already over leveraged.
Well ... As often with trading. Not everything's black or white.

 

[K-Pia]

Average down is for losers.
Being right too early is being wrong.
Listen to pros' advices rather than give your opinion.
You will learn, and maybe you will improve with hard work and discipline.

CM

What's sure is that losers quote masters without trying out for themselves.
You'd be surprised that even Tudor Jones is often too early or too late.

 

[K-Pia]

That's a reason why traders fail.
They want to trade. Trade too often.
Whereas trend following is a lot of sitting.
Then they buy the top. Because they wait ...
Wait for the third pullback (Third move) + Confirmation.
Market Surfer might have forgotten that speculation is forward.
One has to anticipate a trend and not to embrace the one backward.

 

[BONECRUSHER]

If you are day trading and only trying to learn how to trade trends, then you are going to fail 100% guaranteed.. Trends are just a small part of trading, and if you don't study the rest of the market then you are toast.. The odds are against you.. Whether you believe me or not, this trading game was design to take your money.. You are going against the smartest people in the world.. Scientists, mathematicians, billionaires and etc... Do you think your $20 book that you bought from amazon is going to save you? Give me a break!

Now back to the trend.. If the trend is my friend then how come it only shows up 30% of the time? What kind of friend is that? Call me stupid, but I don't want a friend like that.. In trading you have to learn about more than trends in order to survive.. The market is always trying to screw you over and trap you so you have to become aware of this.. There are 7 main things the market is trying to do constantly. Maybe not every single day on one instrument, but you will see it throughout the whole market.. And this is one of the reasons why the market is hard to trade because the market doesn't act the same everyday...

The 7 things are 1) short/long squeeze (fake trends), 2) consolidation, 3) range, 4)strong trends, 5) semi trends, 6) breakouts, and 7) reverses... I'm too lazy to explain every single one of these so you will have to study them yourself

The market loves to trick you into believing that your ONE system is going to make you money.. And then 3 months from now your ONE system is going to stop working and I wonder why? Is it because you was trading a trendy market and now it's not trending lol..

The best way I found to trade the market is to wait for the market to be in a predictable state.. Yes, a predictable state.. What does a predictable state look like? When the market is bouncing off extreme levels is what I call a predictable state.. Trend lines, s&r, and channels... Yes, I know they are hard to draw in real time for most people, but guess what? It's supposed to be hard.. If it wasn't then the game would be easy, and the big boys wouldn't like that.. The best thing I can tell you is to practice everyday in real time and in non real time.. It took me 9 years to see what's really going on.. and I'm still learning

Now, I'm not here to beat down trends because you can make a lot of money from them if you know how to hold onto winners.. But the real trends only appear 30% of the time.. Most people get confused and think that a temporary direction is a trend.. But real trends last for the whole day..

If you are a struggling trader, and you always get caught in chop, then you will need to stop trading and get familiar with the 7 things above.. Plus, you will need to get familiar with trading predictable states...

I analyze volume/volatility to the Nth degree to conclude if price action is more likely to breakout or revert to the mean. That's mostly what I do...never try to determine if a trend exists or not. At the end of some trading days, I look at the charts to see how much the market trended because I was oblivious in real time. Anyone else have a methodology that does't require trend/range/chop interpretation? Just setups that work depending on the "push" or "pull" of the market in current time.

 

[K-Pia]

I analyze volume/volatility to the Nth degree to conclude if price action is more likely to breakout or revert to the mean. That's mostly what I do...never try to determine if a trend exists or not. At the end of some trading days, I look at the charts to see how much the market trended because I was oblivious in real time. Anyone else have a methodology that does't require trend/range/chop interpretation? Just setups that work depending on the "push" or "pull" of the market in current time.

There is some correlation between volume and volatility. But one missing piece is liquidity. Could you develop a beat further about your analysis ? I don't rely on trend neither. But on potential which is a differential between order flow, liquidity associated with support and resistance levels. Since most trend are noisy, broken, ones ... I analyze market conditions at High and Low relative to previous ones and daily market / volume profile.

 

[BONECRUSHER]

There is some correlation between volume and volatility. But one missing piece is liquidity. Could you develop a beat further about your analysis ? I don't rely on trend neither. But on potential which is a differential between order flow, liquidity associated with support and resistance levels. Since most trend are noisy, broken, ones ... I analyze market conditions at High and Low relative to previous ones and daily market / volume profile.

I'm ALWAYS INTERPRETING the DOM...if that's what you mean. I usually don't talk about the DOM because it's hard to explain what I'm looking for. What I do notice all the time, players want their limit orders to execute, so they put "fake" size on the other side of their limit orders to influence the market to "come towards" their standing orders. I only use support or resistance when trying for a larger profit than usual (may as well get out before a S/R level) or to place my stop. I NEVER EVER enter a trade based on support or resistance.

 

[BONECRUSHER]

There is some correlation between volume and volatility. But one missing piece is liquidity. Could you develop a beat further about your analysis ? I don't rely on trend neither. But on potential which is a differential between order flow, liquidity associated with support and resistance levels. Since most trend are noisy, broken, ones ... I analyze market conditions at High and Low relative to previous ones and daily market / volume profile.

Sorry... I never intentionally enter based on support or resistance...many times I get a signal at S/R...just adds more confluence!

 

[hurricane_sh]

Still doing well with average down, actually it's getting better day by day, only a few small losing trades because there was no enough time, now I don't open new positions after 2PM, or even after 1 PM.

I'm now good at catching the bottom (reversal or small rally), in most cases I'm right on the first buy and don't need 2nd one. Actually I don't like it, because with 100 or 200 shares the profit is minimal. When I had to average down 3 or more times, I would have a big win. The higher risk you take, the more profit you can earn.

There will be big loss days, but there are big win days too. I'm prepared.

It's amazing some people think other traders are losers even they know nothing about them.

My limited trading experience told me you had to think out of the box, many well-known golden rules are b*s. I used to trade patterns, when the price breaks out downward, I panick and cut my loss, now I treat it as an opportunity. The trading becomes more enjoyable as well.

 

[BONECRUSHER]

Still doing well with average down, actually it's getting better day by day, only a few small losing trades because there was no enough time, now I don't open new positions after 2PM, or even after 1 PM.

I'm now good at catching the bottom (reversal or small rally), in most cases I'm right on the first buy and don't need 2nd one. Actually I don't like it, because with 100 or 200 shares the profit is minimal. When I had to average down 3 or more times, I would have a big win. The higher risk you take, the more profit you can earn.

There will be big loss days, but there are big win days too. I'm prepared.

It's amazing some people think other traders are losers even they know nothing about them.

My limited trading experience told me you had to think out of the box, many well-known golden rules are b*s. I used to trade patterns, when the price breaks out downward, I panick and cut my loss, now I treat it as an opportunity. The trading becomes more enjoyable as well.

THINK OUTSIDE THE BOX...GOLDEN RULES ARE BULLSHIT...I love it! Only advice I have for you...are you going to be ready for the market when the VIX is over 20 for an extended period of time? When price breaks out, it's typical for it to RUN far longer than most anticipate. GOOD LUCK!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[HeSaidSheSaid]

I think trend following system is in sync with the nature of life. logically, it should work.