the trend is up, market has bottomed.

I respect you. But I think we have case here when trading is definitely not like blackjack. I think it has something to do with nonstandard distributions but I'm already way over my head on that one.

Where the ball lands is a proposition with fixed probabilities, right? But what will set people off in any direction, where money is concerned, is a whole 'nother ball game.

Speaking of ball games, what are the implications of last night's All Star Game on the market?
 
Yeah chasinfla, you are right, but....

Technical indicators are about hard work, and understanding what indicators work best in which markets. The key term here is best. When a head and shoulders is formed, and the price breaks through the neck line , there is no guarantee that it will begin a downtrend. However, odds are that it will, as this pattern is quite reliable.

Blackjack is not at all like trading except in this respect....that by playing your odds you maximize your chances of a winner. When a dealer shows a five and a three and you show 17 off the deal you stay because the odds dictate it. By reading technical indicators properly, (few do) you can also determine buy and sell signals, but these are based on probability as there are no guarantees as in blackjack. Thats all I meant.

In a downtrend, the odds are against you, and in the long run going against the trend will lose you a lot of money. Of course there are times when certain things may indicate to a trader to go against the trend.
 
Originally posted by egildone
the market has bottomed -- OOOOPS I had my chart upside down!

Ed:D :D
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One time a member, and floor manager for a firm on the floor of the CBOT, tom o connell, was looking at a MOB chart(munis over bonds) upside down(not knowing it was a paper chart) and was telling a client how "it looks great", one of the funniest things Ive ever seen
 
Originally posted by chasinfla
I respect you. But I think we have case here when trading is definitely not like blackjack. I think it has something to do with nonstandard distributions but I'm already way over my head on that one.
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Chas you're way in over your head about most things you post about, so no different this time around. Wanna know my term for a person that proffers opinions on matters he has no clue about? An idiot.
(on a side note, i'd be really interested in hearing just how the existence (alleged, imo) of Jesus constitutes a "truth". PM with an answer if u like.)
 
Originally posted by ANCHOR
What is going on with this thread?
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Trying to get banished to "chit-chat" maybe? Can't be long at this rate. Has gotten so far off topic. And the intesting thing is that I thought some of the threads that were "banished" were more relevant to trading than this one has become.

BUT, having said that, I stand by my earlier statements that I admire Lundy (right or wrong) for sticking to his convictions, and at least TRYING to explain his thinking....which IS relevant to trading. He has taken too much abuse by far for just saying what he thinks. This is not right. He doesn't have to be correct in his assessments to have them be appreciated, and if he has been wrong "so far" that doesn't mean that he will be wrong in his own time frame (for what it's worth). At least he sticks to his convictions, and doesn't switch aliases to cheer himself on. He is at least honest in his approach. It shouldn't be about success or failure. It is supposed to be about sharing ideas. I thought we were all here to learn!
 
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