the trend is up, market has bottomed.

Trader99,

If you haven't noticed, this is a long term play, I will be holding for an absolute minimum of 5 weeks, more probable would be 80 days, and possibly alot more.

Considering that, I see myself in a good position to profit if this is in fact the bottom.

Also, timing tops and bottoms is what pivot trading is all about, buying at support selling at resistance. :eek:
 
I came here 3 weeks ago because I couldnt believe my eyes... errrr,,, couldnt believe the tiltle of this thread. I thought an idiot was pulling predictions from his bottom. And I was right.... its fun to be right about something.

Heres My secret trading method: (not as complicated as Lundys)

I have a chart thingamajiggy and I look at it and I see it.... if its direction is down.... I think its going down(like a bobber)...if the direction is up I think its going up.... and if it was going down and then goes up.... I think its changing direction. I just follow along sorta like trolling in a boat and drinking budweiser.... enjoying the boat ride. Where the boat goes, so goes my line.

Hey. I have a honeymoon method for very volatile markets too. I'll explain that one later.....

anyways.... as it was 3 weeks ago ..my boat is going down and I need another beer so I can sit back and watch the action. And right now Lundy aint fishing..hes using 10 poles and got all his lines tangled up... says hes got a big one on. Sounds like a fish story to me.
 
Originally posted by daniel_m
Sir, you seem quite fond of pointing out that you have no opinion on the market, and place your trades thus - on the "here and now". Usually accomanying such a comment is the a point about a chart only representing what has happened, and that looking at a chart somehow automatically forces one to have an irretractable opinion on what is going to happen.

Given some of your comments about charts at your one week in Vegas that I recently attended, I am starting to believe you have totally missed the point about charts. In vegas you made a comment that said something like you showed a chart to 5 or 6 "chartists" and that they all gave you a different opinion on where that market was going. WOW. That is somehow supposed to discredit charting?? Please!
Since you are so fond of the "here and now" of "tape reading", let me point out to you that when _I_ look at a chart (as i do when i trade) i am also SOLELY concerned with what is happening now. (what do you think I am concerned with? what happened 20 minutes ago?) I simply look at the hard right edge of the chart. Tell me, how in the world is this different from looking at the "tape"?? A chart, when used in this manner, has the ADVANTAGE of also telling you how that stock has traded so far today. This is NOT being "bogged down" with information, contrary to what you might say.

On the matter of opinions: as has been stated by lundy (i think) just because you and I trade on very short time frames, sometimes less than a minute (if i'm wrong) you DO still have an opinion on the direction of the market for that small amount of time. You are reading your tape, you see something that tips you off, you place an order. So, for that short period of time, you believe that your desired outcome is a possibility. I can't see how this is not having an opinion.

I'm not the first to make these points as a reply to some of your assertions Don, the reason I am making them is that I'd like an answer. I'd like to hear your informative opinion, not some congenial response like, "come on guys, let's just focus on making money" - i AM focused on making money, which is why I'm asking you.
More...

Hi Daniel...Of course we have an opinion for the next few ticks...if you remember in class I referred to the study that basically proved that the market could be predicted with a 70% accuracy out about 6 minutes.

We use spoo tick charts, bond charts, RS indicators all day long. My concern is when we start to "expect" something to happen over the long term. It is hard to short a market if you "feel" that it should go up, even though the immediate indicators say otherwise.

By watching the dedicated ticker, we can derive more information (who's playing, size prints, etc.) than we can with a chart.

As you know, I simply want everyone to do really well, and if you are doing real well using charts from time to time, then go for it.

Good Luck!!

Don
 
Originally posted by Don Bright


Hi Daniel...Of course we have an opinion for the next few ticks...if you remember in class I referred to the study that basically proved that the market could be predicted with a 70% accuracy out about 6 minutes.

Don
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Hi Don,

Have you not found anything that gives an edge over longer periods? Say hours or days. (Except pairs)

Don
 
"I'm NOT saying this is or isn't the bottom. Who knows where it is. But my main point and only point is that it's POINTLESS trying to time the bottom or top. That's really shouldn't be a goal when you are trading.

As an old trader's saying goes,"Those who say they consistently time tops and bottoms are liars..." or something like that.

Of course, if the market rally "500 pts" as Lundy said, it will bring him glories to his EGO. Timing tops and bottoms serves only ONE purpose - to satisfy's people egos. Other than that, it has no real value in trading IMHO."

trader99
****************************************************

While I agree that timing tops/bottoms should not be the only goal in trading, it can be one of the goals. I personally don't do it . But if one gives any credence at all to technical analysis then it follows that the possibility exists for some timing to occur to some degree of probability. There are plenty of things technically that often happen at bottoms and tops ie., volume/volatility spikes, dogies, price holding near previous tops bottoms and support/trendlines etc..

It is certainly a risky game and probably best left to very experienced traders but if Lundy is proved correct, it will be more than his ego that will be inflated!

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

"If there's anything more important than my ego around, I want it caught and shot now."
- Douglas Adams, The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy
 
Originally posted by Don Dumb


Hi Don,

Have you not found anything that gives an edge over longer periods? Say hours or days. (Except pairs)

Don
More...

Not really...especially with the market so "news conscious" as it is these days. The basics apply, if you're in a good trade, then hold it or else get out. Intraday sector trading, MOC"s and the rest are all we need to make money.

Investing for longer periods is a whole different game...and you should take money out of the stupid mutual funds and buy ETF's. For trading, stick with the basics....they've been working for centuries....

Don
 
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