the trend is up, market has bottomed.

Originally posted by illiquid
God forbid if anyone actually dared to anticipate market direction for more than .10 at a time (gasp!). And on that god-awful nasdaq market! I mean, jeez, that would fall under *trading* wouldn't it? Like using ur head and taking some risk -- yuck!!!

ps -- what exactly do they do at Bright, fish for change until 9:45 then spend the rest of day posting in here? :) :) :)
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Its about time I get some back up against this market neutral bs philosophy.
 
after reading your posts, and listening to you rationalize your position, i think its high time you open your garage door, and turn the car off. The fumes are getting to you. Just an opinion from someone not worthy.
:D
 
Originally posted by lundy


Its about time I get some back up against this market neutral bs philosophy.
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My view is that this is a traders' market. We go up and down, back and forth over and over until we ultimately get that huge move to the upside or downside, depending on your preference. But in the mean time by trading for the big move you suffer death from a thousand papercuts. Those who are trading this market without bias are slowly but surely banking profits away in the here and now.
 
Originally posted by lundy




chaos math: "a butterfly in China flaps it's wings and a hurricane hits Florida" .
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ok, that means by home depot and lumber futures....man, i gotta go get some bottled water...a butterfuly flapped its wings in nigeria.:D
 
I am going to weigh in on the bull side once and for all. Although i think there are pockets of the market that are still grossly overvalued (AMAT, BRCD, NEM) and although the momentum is clearly bearish I do think we are at a bottom.

a. the dollar weakening is actually good for the stock market. Once foreign investors think the dollar is at or close to a bottom they will pour money into the market. Meanwhile, foreign money represents only 13% of money invested in the stock market and it is unlikely that more than 10% of that will leave US equities even if they worried about a crash in the dollar, which also is unlikely.

b. the weakening dollar will boost profits of the companies that export goods (most of the S&P 500). A 10% drop in the dollar (which is likely) significantly increases the profits of exporters compared to the analyst estimates (which are usually wrong anyway).

c. current estimates on earnings for the S&P 500 are $55 for '02. This translates to an earnings yield of 5.7% with corresponding yields on 5 year t-bills currently less than 5% and getting lower. The ratio between those two is the lowest its been in at least a decade. Take out the tech companies and it gets even better.

d. a cabdriver in NYC asked me what stocks he should be shorting. The ultimate contrarian indicator.
 
Originally posted by Vishnu
I am going to weigh in on the bull side once and for all.

d. a cabdriver in NYC asked me what stocks he should be shorting. The ultimate contrarian indicator.
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Great post. A, B, and C were all very good points as well as the ultimate...D.

I for one do not usually think much about the fundamentals of the market. I am a daytrader, and therefore long term opinions are an impediment to my mind-set.

But what you say here really does make a lot of sense. Thanks for the effort! Well stated position!
 
Plus we have a Head & Shoulders bottom in the Q's with the right shoulder at the stage where is should hold and then rally to the trendline. Lets see what happens. It is a classic setup with declining volume to boot! Interesting anyway :)
 

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Vishnu

Good post, although there are a few other things to consider.

1. The dollar may not be even close to a bottom. Sure a weaker dollar is good longer term, but if it slides too fast, it could add to the ugliness.

2. Your yeild estimate for 02 hasn't happen yet. And probably won't. How many companies will now have to resate projected earnings using 'real' figures?

3. If even half of that 13% try to repatriate their money, it puts further downward pressure on the market.

4. In an international funds management sense, there are simply much better buys out there in other parts of the world. The US has to eventually return to par with other markets on a value basis, and it is nowhere near it yet.

Your taxi driver observation is valid though.

Runningbear
 
Originally posted by targetman
after reading your posts, and listening to you rationalize your position, i think its high time you open your garage door, and turn the car off. The fumes are getting to you. Just an opinion from someone not worthy.
:D
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I should have listened to u, nevertheless, I'm net long and I don't regret it at this point.

so what, u gonna rain on my party?

:D :D :D :D :D :D :D
 
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