the trend is up, market has bottomed.

[darkhorse]

Originally posted by Babak
It seems trimtabs.com agrees with lundy. Although they turned bullish this past Friday.

interesting concept (liquidity analysis). do u subscribe?

i'm curious how they deal with hidden contractions in the money supply that aren't immediately visible (like rising interest rates on loans or cutting off lines of credit), and also how they deal with alternative investment competition for cash (bonds, metals, foreign equities etc.)....seems those things could muddy up the picture a bit or even distort it significantly

 

[rs7]

Originally posted by Don Bright
Sure, it's fun to make predictions based on "something" rather than "gut feeling" but if I put 10 technicians in the same room with the same information, I will get many different opinions on the next day/week market moves, and always with caveats.

Don

Great post...every word of it!!!
But now I can't find it...did you delete it?

 

[Don Bright]

Originally posted by rs7

Great post...every word of it!!!
But now I can't find it...did you delete it?

Yeah, I did...I didn't want to sound too negative....sorry...

Don

 

[rs7]

Originally posted by Don Bright


Yeah, I did...I didn't want to sound too negative....sorry...

Don

I don't know what could really be construed as negative. Especially by the standards of this thread. But anyway, I thought you were right on the money!
Almost wish I had quoted the whole post so others who missed it could have benefited from your point of view. So much technical nonsense and so little sense.
Fibinacci numbers...I find them useful for tuning my guitar! Puts me in sync with the vibrations and harmony of the universe.

 

[Don Bright]

Originally posted by rs7

I don't know what could really be construed as negative. Especially by the standards of this thread. But anyway, I thought you were right on the money!
Almost wish I had quoted the whole post so others who missed it could have benefited from your point of view. So much technical nonsense and so little sense.
Fibinacci numbers...I find them useful for tuning my guitar! Puts me in sync with the vibrations and harmony of the universe.

OK, here you go.

There are only about 6000 professional traders in the Country. Most do very little with charts and TA (they simply don't have the time to bother with what "has" happened, since they are focused on what "is" happening). Tape reading is so much more important.

If TA really worked, then we would have a lot Billionaires in the ranks of all the clubs out there full of technicians. (I'm not bashing, honestly).

So much time is wasted trying to use some technique or another that we have all seen simply does not work for trading...if we spent the same time enjoying life, then we would have clear heads to face the trading day...and respond to the market...we know the market will do whatever it wants to anyway...and NO one can predict it with any degree of certainty for any lenght of time...period. And it doesn't really matter....why do traders care which way it's going? Trade from both sides, trade the market, not your opinion.

We have had hundreds of traders with opinions (based on virtually every type of strategy, TA, etc.) and they eventually fail ...unless the stop wasting time with direction and simply trade.

Sure it's fun to be right, and you will be sometimes....but it's more fun to be consistently proftable....and park the EGO's at the door...

No offense to those who enjoy charting and stuff....have fun....but bear in mind that you doing it for the enjoyment of having a "reason" for your venture into a trade....why not use the "here and now" for a reason to enter a trade?

Anyway, as I've said, it takes all kinds to make a market, and Iwish everyone all the best...

Don

 

[lundy]

Originally posted by lundy

Also, if you don't understand how I was at a huge profit on Tuesday, I will briefly explain.

When we gapped down huge, my original long options lost most of their value. I stated that I was quadrupling my option position because the gap would be closed.

The gap did close and I sold my new options for a huge gain, and my original options were close to breakeven. Overall that put me at a big profit. Heres an example if you cant understand that:

I buy 100 shares of a stock @ $10. Stock falls to $5, so I buy 400 more shares. Stock rises to $8, I sell all 500 shares. That puts me at a gross profit of $1000.

Runningbear,

you either didn't read this, or you didn't understand it.

you have a ratio of 2/1 for destructive/constructive posts to this particular thread.

 

[Atlantic]

Originally posted by Don Bright


...unless the stop wasting time with direction and simply trade.

sounds interesting - tell more.

btw - ta works of course - but maybe not in every market.

 

[lundy]

Originally posted by Don Bright


OK, here you go.

So much time is wasted trying to use some technique or another that we have all seen simply does not work for trading...if we spent the same time enjoying life, then we would have clear heads to face the trading day...and respond to the market...we know the market will do whatever it wants to anyway...and NO one can predict it with any degree of certainty for any lenght of time...period. And it doesn't really matter....why do traders care which way it's going? Trade from both sides, trade the market, not your opinion.

Don,

About predictions: you seem to disappear every time you get proven wrong, or someone brings up a valid argument, and you just don't respond, then you pop in again with the same "market neutral, keep your eye on your nose bs".

I'm sure your busy, and most of my posts got buried, but if you haven't noticed I predicted the gap and direction several times FOR YOU on this thread alone. What to speak of my sleepless nights thread. Anyone who read that thread, and still thinks the markets cant be predicted, or that charts and ta are useless, needs to take their eyes off their nose. I'd like to see you make 1/10th of those returns scalping 10cents all day long. At least you should do that before you say that your market neutral bs is the best way to go.

Just because i was wrong in one prediction (this longer term rally stuff) doesn't mean that it's not possible to predict. Or that TA is useless. With the sleepless nights thread, I predicted the market every day for 1 week. I also posted all my intraday trades in real time. I made a higher percentage return in that one week than 99.99% will make this year.

Before you step all over my toes in this forum about predictions etc, at least prove yourself.

I know you can't post your trades in realtime, cause you are a scalper, but just admit that you haven't got a clue about how to predict the market and let it go. Your ignorance isn't necessarily the high standard, but I do beleive it's the norm.

 

[Commisso]

Originally posted by Don Bright


So much time is wasted trying to use some technique or another that we have all seen simply does not work for trading...if we spent the same time enjoying life, then we would have clear heads to face the trading day...and respond to the market...we know the market will do whatever it wants to anyway...and NO one can predict it with any degree of certainty for any lenght of time...period. And it doesn't really matter....why do traders care which way it's going? Trade from both sides, trade the market, not your opinion.


Don

Don,

I have to say that there is much truth in your post and "philosophicaly" we approach the game in much the same manner...

With that said though the extreme hard right edge of the chart is the here and now and can be used in the same manner as the "tape"... Actually the last candle on my chart is nothing more than a visual display of your T&S...

If Lundy could apply his TA in the same manner as you describe up top he would be MUCH better off...

Anyway Don great post,
Commisso

EDIT: I just now saw Lundy's reply to you, and I must say Don that you really should try and do a better job assessing a trader's/persons disposition before you attempt to show him the "way"...

I am reminded of my fav Mark Twain quote

"When I was a boy of 14, my father was so ignorant I could hardly stand to have the old man around. But when I got to be 21, I was astonished at how much the old man had learned in seven years."

 

[dotslashfuture]

ok I hear the part about tape reading. But how is that not taking a directional stance? You are still using some kind of a "method" to make a directional bet. The only difference is your time frame and your stop loss point.