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the trend is up, market has bottomed.
- Thread starter lundy
- Start date
Just to give you a chuckle, I'll let you know that people were saying that wcom was a value stock because its P/E was and still is listed in many places as being in single digits !
ok lundy, so now what? lol
if this lasts all week we are in for an ugly summer and an ugly economy too. With the market this weak it would be an ideal time for a terrorist attack also. This whole situation is starting to get scary. My optimism is fading fast along with the support levels.
MAYBE THAT IS A CONTRARY INDICATOR ????????
The bearishness is overwhelming. That's kind of a sad reason to go long, but I can't think of anything better right now.
MAYBE THAT IS A CONTRARY INDICATOR ????????
The bearishness is overwhelming. That's kind of a sad reason to go long, but I can't think of anything better right now.
ok, I was wrong.
what am I doing now with my options? HOLDING THEM. The reason why is this: long term indicators say near a bottom, a new weekly high will confirm this. I will wait for new weekly high, and then I will buy more.
To all you who are "right". Good for you if u put your money where your mouth was.
To sum it up, I was wrong with my prediction, but only time will tell if I lose on this trade.
what am I doing now with my options? HOLDING THEM. The reason why is this: long term indicators say near a bottom, a new weekly high will confirm this. I will wait for new weekly high, and then I will buy more.
To all you who are "right". Good for you if u put your money where your mouth was.
To sum it up, I was wrong with my prediction, but only time will tell if I lose on this trade.
The market might be near a bottom: the basis of my opinion is strictly having observed past markets including the gold futures market reversals in the early 80's and the 87 market sell off.
Exactly where the bottom is I simply dont know but I have observed a general perception amongst the public as well as various "commentators" that the market needs to be lower. When everyone turns pessimistic things are usually close to a reversal. However the commentators are correct with respect to historical P/E ratios on equities.
I dont try to predict the bottom since I usually just trade intraday on active liquid issues and only hold things that I am very confident are oversold or overbought.
Exactly where the bottom is I simply dont know but I have observed a general perception amongst the public as well as various "commentators" that the market needs to be lower. When everyone turns pessimistic things are usually close to a reversal. However the commentators are correct with respect to historical P/E ratios on equities.
I dont try to predict the bottom since I usually just trade intraday on active liquid issues and only hold things that I am very confident are oversold or overbought.
Well, it seems that we have seen more bottoms since last week.
This has been a simple exercise in why we don't get too caught up in the "guessing direction" part of trading...it can kill your account while you're waiting to be "right."
IMO, it is better to be wrong a little bit, once in a while, bite the bullet, switch directions, trade the stocks as short term plays...less pain, more gain...and you don't have to study so much....
Just checking back in....
Don
This has been a simple exercise in why we don't get too caught up in the "guessing direction" part of trading...it can kill your account while you're waiting to be "right."
IMO, it is better to be wrong a little bit, once in a while, bite the bullet, switch directions, trade the stocks as short term plays...less pain, more gain...and you don't have to study so much....
Just checking back in....
Don
being wrong is OK, as long as you admit it.
Do you really admit it ?
you are holding and hoping for your position.
I don't know where your stop is, but that should be your answer (regarding waiting or not).
That's the other problem with predicting : you don't expect to be wrong. And therefore don't have a very specific plan regarding exiting the bad trade.
For next time, consider how easy it was for many experienced traders to just short and wait. odds were so much in our favor.
why not just do the same next time ?
Bottom picking is AGAINST odds. that's the bottom line (hehe). so money was made not because of smartness of complex calculations or whatever. Just the simple probability that trends usually continue, even when they look like they would(should) stop. Actually that's the best time to play them (shorting when you get a rally).
remember : if you are 100% sure of a trade, you are probably wrong.
2 strategies possible :
- sell to buy (or buy to sell). instead of playing against the trend, trade with it. if you lose on the trade then, finally the trend reversed. if you made money (the trend usually continues) you were wrong but who cares: you made money.
- or simply, as pointed out early, never trade against the trend. always assume it continues. when you hear bottom pickers, cover your shorts.. when they think they are right (price go up) short again.
it's exactly what you would do (mirrored) in a bull market.
this thread is so great, because if anyone takes the time to read it all, and follow the market graph they will learn a LOT about market psychology and how to make money. I hope.
tntneo
Do you really admit it ?
you are holding and hoping for your position.
I don't know where your stop is, but that should be your answer (regarding waiting or not).
That's the other problem with predicting : you don't expect to be wrong. And therefore don't have a very specific plan regarding exiting the bad trade.
For next time, consider how easy it was for many experienced traders to just short and wait. odds were so much in our favor.
why not just do the same next time ?
Bottom picking is AGAINST odds. that's the bottom line (hehe). so money was made not because of smartness of complex calculations or whatever. Just the simple probability that trends usually continue, even when they look like they would(should) stop. Actually that's the best time to play them (shorting when you get a rally).
remember : if you are 100% sure of a trade, you are probably wrong.
2 strategies possible :
- sell to buy (or buy to sell). instead of playing against the trend, trade with it. if you lose on the trade then, finally the trend reversed. if you made money (the trend usually continues) you were wrong but who cares: you made money.
- or simply, as pointed out early, never trade against the trend. always assume it continues. when you hear bottom pickers, cover your shorts.. when they think they are right (price go up) short again.
it's exactly what you would do (mirrored) in a bull market.
this thread is so great, because if anyone takes the time to read it all, and follow the market graph they will learn a LOT about market psychology and how to make money. I hope.
tntneo