Originally posted by vulture
actually, forget it, this is too damn depressing to keep writing...My initial point was just that there has probably never been a time in the history of financial markets in which stocks were plunging yet we did not have "inflation" as defined by the powers that be, and hence, did not have higher interest rates, which, by turn would mean that people would have an alternative to putting their money into a casino which pays no dividends...
Well there was the Depression: Stocks were plunging, prices weren't just stagnant... they were declining... I'm not sure about dividends during the '30s, but I suspect that, generally speaking, they weren't very dependable, and, where dependable, adequately compensatory for the capital risk...
As for the '70s-'80s, the last time interest rates were very high, what's the use of a dividend or a high interest instrument when inflation is in double digits?
I'm not sure that I have any better handle on economics than you do, but I do know from history that virtually every period includes its own mind-numbing and often quite painful contradictions. Is there really anything relatively desirable from an investment standpoint in the high inflation, high unemployment, high interest rate, low real growth environment of the '70s and early '80s? Did capitalism (which still had an apparent great competitor around) really look to be in better shape then than it looks to be in now? More recently, back in the late '80s-early '90s, the US was seen to be clearly in decline, especially when compared to the outperforming vigor and overall excellence of Japan under its, ahem, triumphant industrial policy... And, needless to say, budget deficits were going to bankrupt us...
I don't mean to be a Polyanna... So, here's a nicely depressing take on the current economic situation that you might (or very well might not!) find interesting:
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/latest-digest.html