the trend is up, market has bottomed.

I am enjoying this while I'm trading one of the easiest days in quite some time...Daytrading paradise...

Right now we are selling off from from Dow down 76, once again.

I wonder, are you guys making some money from all these predicitons, or are the "naysayers" correct in assuming that nothing can be predicted? (...and even if you think it can, are you making big money from the predictions?).

Not causing trouble, and I agree that most any TA method is a good as the others...

Don
 
Predicting is a game I play using risk management. Sometimes I'm right, sometimes i'm wrong.

I predicted what would happen if we gapped down and so far it's correct. How did I trade this? I bought NQ near 986 this morning. And I sold @ 1015.

I predicted it, and I followed the plan.

Not all my predictions are right, but most of them are, and with proper risk management, I can make higher percentage numbers than arb traders (the no direction guys).

I made over 30% on that specific play this morning.
 
I've made 300% return on my trades today ...
yesterday I made only 100% ....
tomorrow I'm 100% SURE I'll make another 300% ...
I trade stocks, bonds, stock options, currencies, currency options, exotic options, forwards and swaps, and many other derivatives none of you (idiots) has ever heard about ...
I trade all world markets ... and I'm a winner at them all ...
I call bottoms VERY accurately ... but who cares ... even if I make bad calls ... I still make tremendous amounts of money ... yes idiots, don't laugh stupid ... when I make a bad call ... I only make 100% return on my money instead of the usual 1000% ...

VERY IMPORTANT : Lundy is 5 years old, and trades EVERYTHING on his new "Bottoms Down" stock market board game ... for ages 2 to 5 ... from 0 to 1 player ....
 
Good job making money this morning, but was it really from predictions, or was it your wise understanding of the market conditions....a bounce back due to extreme sell sentiment??

In either case, you're making money, and that's "a good thing."....

Don
 
Originally posted by lundy
My stop would be at todays low, TOMORROW.

In otherwords, I would let today play out... like it is right now, and tomorrow, if we take out todays low, i would stop out.



Thank you for taking the time to posts what u feel, this is what ET is about. The only thing I disagree with is you have no stop loss....you should have been out of your positions already from your previous posts, instead you doubled down.........what type of risk management are you talking about in your previous post???? you said u would get out if we broke, we broke...just trying to learn not bash ,,,thanks
More...
 
I used TA to conclude that if we gapped down, the gap would be closed. That was yesterday at close, today I went long at open.

I make a plan the day before. Then I trade that plan as I have today. You can call it a plan, a prediction, an opinion, a bias. But i basically figure out what the market will do, so that I can have an edge.
 
I totally agree. But, I said that I bought out of the money calls, which were almost worthless this morning. They couldn't go below .5 cents before expiration. So, in essence, by using options, it's an automatic stop loss. The risk is limited. So I was just using stop out as a figure of speech.

Also, the NDX didn't just break the lows, it gapped way down. So theres a big difference, had it happened intraday, I would have sold my options, then re evaluated and maybe enter again.

Basically, because it gapped down, I had all night to think about it and analyze and re analyze, and in the morning, I decided to buy more.
 
Originally posted by futurecurrents
Some use their tools to predict, others to confirm. But when one confirms a trend, it still is to predict the future, however short term that is. Inertia confirmed, predicts.

***********************************************

Thats the way I see it too.

Identify an extreme condition, load up long options. Knowing you might be early be prepared to double down. I dont think thats automatically a bad system.

Until I find a directionless, riskless system I need to have an opinion.
More...
 
Everyone is arguing, beating each other up, patting each other on the back, what the hell. It's all in good fun, after all we are all comrades are we not. From the past thread where people see our profession as "evil", if we cant stick together, maybe we are evil.

As long as we are all making money and sticking to our disciplines...

As far as THE bottom, I don't believe there will be any particular capitulation day reversal that marks the bottom.

Look back at the 2000 top. Did anything specific occur on that day? Not that I remember. Did we crash and never reach that level again? Not really, from my charts, the Nasdaq almost rallied to challenge that high again, only to fail. Looking back, we could have gone all the way to 6000 or 7000 on that momentum. But our decline since then has been pretty slow and drifty. Turn that picture upside down and that is probably the most likely scenario in reverse for this market.

When we are in the next bull market and we look back to the lowest point of this bear market. Ask yourselves the same questions.

I bet the answers will be - darn, there wasn't really any news on that day...I thought we could've gone lower...neither technical or fundamental analysis wouldve gave you the buy signal on that day.

...but shall we all continue to make money as this slow bleed continues.

Stick to discipline so that you can stay in the game.

...and this too shall pass. And there will without a doubt be much better days ahead. That you can bank on.
 
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