the trend is up, market has bottomed.

"but the falling dollar is contributing to the markets fall,
and could continue..."


Mark

Mark, I won't say you're wrong because anything is possible. However, I do disagree with you. I believe the strength of the dollar is peripheral data. The strength/weakness of the dollar -- just like all the other balancing acts in the economy-- has a cycle. When the dollar is strong, exports decline (less money coming in) and imports rise (more money going out.) So, is the weaker dollar really a bad thing? Think of all the goods that will now be going out of the country (money coming in) and improving the revenues and ultimately the bottom line of U.S. companies.

I see plenty of reason for investors to sell out because the companies have performed badly (since mid 98 in most cases) and executives have behaved badly. The rules haven't changed. Those companies that are growing and improving their top and bottom lines are attracting the investment dollars. Just because they aren't included in the index and just because there are fewer of them... doesn't mean they don't exist. But they are dang difficult to find. Maybe the market GURU's are so busy focusing on the past that they completely miss the present and these companies aren't getting much if any attention. So, I'm going on a treasure hunt....X marks the spot....if only it were that easy! (gotta love it.)
 
Originally posted by Lavish
"but the falling dollar is contributing to the markets fall,
and could continue..."


Mark

Mark, I won't say you're wrong because anything is possible. However, I do disagree with you. I believe the strength of the dollar is peripheral data. The strength/weakness of the dollar -- just like all the other balancing acts in the economy-- has a cycle. When the dollar is strong, exports decline (less money coming in) and imports rise (more money going out.) So, is the weaker dollar really a bad thing? Think of all the goods that will now be going out of the country (money coming in) and improving the revenues and ultimately the bottom line of U.S. companies.

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If this is true, then:

This would argue for improved fundamentals as the dollars come in for products produced by industry. At the same time, as dollars flow out of $ denominated investments, stock prices will fall. Also, would not rising US exports create a demand for $s?

The combination of improved fundamentals and falling prices is part of the basing <i>process</i>, is it not? That's p-r-o-o-o-o-c-e-e-e-s-s-s-s-s-s-s-s-s.

All in the context of a proper liquidation of "<a href="http://www.aros.net/~vlyon/tfme/2tfme04.htm">the malinvestment in physical capital that results from offering loans at subsidized rates</a>,"of course.
 
I don't know about this bottom guys... do you watch higher time frames? There is a big black monthly marubozu taking out the closing lows on NDX/COMP and S&P. Last week was a false bottom trapping many people usually that sets the stage for a big selloff, next stop would be 950-60 S&P, 925-50 NDX . Now, TRIN, P/C and VIX are close to bottom levels I guess. This week will be critical. We have a lot of econ. data but I doubt we can rally enough to reverse last week action. That would be a close around 1040-50 for the S&P and 1160 NDX by the end of the week, in other words a huge rally. Unlikely IMO. There are also major moves in all the majors against the dollar. I also look at a basket of naz stocks and big caps and it doesn't look good either.Anyway just my opinion, as a daytrader it doesn't really matter. I wish I had more $ to make those big directionnal bet.
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Originally posted by Kicking
I don't know about this bottom guys... do you watch higher time frames? There is a big black monthly marubozu taking out the closing lows on NDX/COMP and S&P. Last week was a false bottom trapping many people usually that sets the stage for a big selloff, next stop would be 950-60 S&P, 925-50 NDX . Now, TRIN, P/C and VIX are close to bottom levels I guess. This week will be critical. We have a lot of econ. data but I doubt we can rally enough to reverse last week action. That would be a close around 1040-50 for the S&P and 1160 NDX by the end of the week, in other words a huge rally. Unlikely IMO. There are also major moves in all the majors against the dollar. I also look at a basket of naz stocks and big caps and it doesn't look good either.Anyway just my opinion, as a daytrader it doesn't really matter. I wish I had more $ to make those big directionnal bet.
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I lost track of this thread about 10 pages back, but it was interesting to hear someone express my opinion (without any typing on my part). Right down to the daytrader comment. I wish all the bottom pickers luck and hope they don't get all burned up tommorrow........trend is down.....
 
Low to mid 900's on the SPX is where things really get crucial. It only stands to reason that these levels are being tested again. There seems to be a touch of support at 900ish...let's hope it holds, or Prechter may be right.... (this not a prediction about tomorrow or next week although it could happen...this is not a prediction at all, just an observation).

Looks like everything that happened during Clinton's encore -- as reflected in US equities prices -- was just hype and fluff and trouble...but we all knew that anyway...
 
Originally posted by chasinfla
Low to mid 900's on the SPX is where things really get crucial. It only stands to reason that these levels are being tested again. There seems to be a touch of support at 900ish...let's hope it holds, or Prechter may be right.... (this not a prediction about tomorrow or next week although it could happen...this is not a prediction at all, just an observation).

Looks like everything that happened during Clinton's encore -- as reflected in US equities prices -- was just hype and fluff and trouble...but we all knew that anyway...
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Yes, I agree with the Clinton part...This is something that was troubling then and made those times so uncertain...Once the Fed lowered rates after the bond market close in Oct, 1998...Once Robert Rubin was brought into the picture, trouble was inevitable...The worst aspect of all of it is that the general public will never figure out exactly what went wrong and when...So little discussion of Clinton's impact on the overall unravelling of the economy and other issues...Just amazes me
 
Ultimately looks like the Spoo can get cut in half again before finding real support...not a prediction but an observation.

Sure we might get some mighty bounces but looks like the long term risk is on the downside...

things could change...hope they do...I don't underestimate the resiliency of people...but the chart as it stands today is what it is.
 

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