the trend is up, market has bottomed.

Yes, most market followers are now hooked on the idea that the Nasdaq Comp. and the S&P 500 will take out their September lows and that will cause the capitulation they all are waiting for.

Well, of course this hook will keep them from getting long in the coming weeks as the markets fail to take out those lows. Just remember when it is obvious, it is obviously wrong! The mutual fund players are now panicking and dumping to the money funds; along with their investment advisors who are now more bearish than anytime since 9/11. The option boys are picking up puts like they are free and the VIX and VXN are both at yearly highs.

Volume has picked up along with volatility and the fear is mounting. The low could be anytime, and today may have been the day with Monday reversals customary after triple witches.

So, I would suggest now is a time to start picking up some of whatever you like, and continue to accumulate over the next few weeks. This is only an intermediate low and resulting rally, the valuations, sentiment are still not in the correct positions for a multiyear low. The secular bear has a long way to go. In the meantime these rallies are tradeable and worth the move to the long side.

Good luck with your picks! :)
 
the "buy the dips" of the 1990's was also accompanied with the get real long on any pullbacks after the first dip, ensuring a good amount of support at many levels...Nowadays, each spike rally ensures that a good number of longs will show up at levels on the decline back from the peak of the spike...This has happened on every occassion since March and is the reason, I believe, why we maintain a fairly choppy market, yet a downtrending one at that...It also seems that alot of people still cannot tell the difference between alot of covering and true buying...And no one really can with any certainty...But since it has turned out to be covering for about 3 1/2 months now, I don't see how it just changes out of nowhere...
 
darkhorse. loved your posts.
disagree on one thing.. technical analysis does make sense on long term too. problem is, usually, traders/investors don't look at the complete chart.. ie the S&P can retrace HUGELY and still keep a valid long term bull market.
it's easy to then accept the long term bull market forecast (you know, the stock exchange will always go up crap) and to refuse the retracement can go back to a much lower down trend support line soon !

but beside that, fully agree with all your comments.

calling a bottom is really a futile exercice. same as predicting what will happen. yeah sorry lundy, you don't only 'call a trade' you announce the day, and the following rally size.
I only know one who claimed doing that : Gann. And It was way before us and not fully proven as far as I know. You do claim to have the gift. OK. good for you.
But I am glad, others are questioning you, I would hate to see members follow your 'mega tip' just because you act so certain.

I don't know what the market will do tomorrow. And actually that's the most important thing I learned from the bubble burst : "never try again to predict the market". Now I only try to predict volatility and I trade volatility (with market making on one side of my operations and index trading on the other side) and never pick a direction again.

And guess what : since then I am very profitable with so few down days. predicting volatility seems much easier than direction.

tntneo

PS : and yet, the trend is still DOWN ! :D
 
Vulture I had a weird feeling when I read your post, because less than half an hour ago I used the phrase "buy the dips was a mantra for the nineties" on another thread.

And the other day I posted references to nanotechnology and tourist space travel only to see Mike777 had mentioned the same two things in a post just shortly before mine.

Where's Rod Serling when you need him?

"You are traveling through another dimension, not only of sight and sound but of mind. Next stop..."

p.s. yep tntneo i both agree and disagree w/ your caveat on the long term technical view, its like interaction of planets vs. interaction of atoms and electrons, scale has weird ramifications, we're probably 90% on same page though
 
Originally posted by darkhorse
p.s. yep tntneo i both agree and disagree w/ your caveat on the long term technical view, its like interaction of planets vs. interaction of atoms and electrons, scale has weird ramifications, we're probably 90% on same page though
More...
good point ! that's an interesting aspects of fractals (or pseudo fractals). We must be sure we are looking at the same phenomenon on different time scales. there is room to argue it.
Gee, I wish there would be more discussions like this on ET instead of always the same 'gut feeling' against 'systematic'.

tntneo
 
trdrmac, seth arb, LOL.:D :D :D The asteroid...as if we don't have enough problems....



<a href="http://www.bigideafun.com/penguins/arcade/ship_lander/info.htm"><img src="http://www.bigideafun.com/penguins/arcade/ship_lander/images/splash_lg.gif"width=150 height=150></img>
</a>

horse, grab that cash with both hands and make a stash. Ka <i>ching!</i>

<img src="http://www.ibiblio.org/mal/anim/pink/dsm5.jpg"></img>
 
4 star caviar daydream think i'm gonna buy me a football team....

there is no dark side of the moon really. as a matter of fact its all dark. (heartbeat...fading heartbeat...)
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top