Well, I am just giving you an estimation. As in the past, that pivot might be now or 2 weeks from now. If 9 times out of the last ten there was a sharp pivot then I think we can assume its coming soon.
The Top is Now In...Go to Cash now...right now...
- Thread starter retaildaytrader
- Start date
Forget it. 10-30yr spread is pricing in some higher level of inflation. While inflation is bad for shares in the long run, in the short-term it will likely provide the boost needed to blow right through 1200-1220.
And share can stay overbought for a LONG time.
And share can stay overbought for a LONG time.
Quote from retaildaytrader:
I have come back here to Elitetrader to complete my CORRECTLY CALLED bottom call with a top call. Elitetraders, it is now time to go to cash. While I feel there might be some room to go up further by a few points, the risk right now is too great to be on the long side.
If you have not done so already, I urge you to go to cash and get ready for the next move. Remember, we are now entering the period of October. We could wake up one day to a massive explosion in New York City or some large terrorist event in the world right before the elections. Iran could suddenly seal off the Med. Whatever it might be, you should not take any risks right now.
Look at this chart. The percentage of stocks over their 50 day moving average is now over 90% and has been for several weeks. This is not a time to get loaded up with the longs.
Remember, price turns very quickly and the downward pressure can last a while.
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Here is another thing to consider...sentiment. Sentiment is at a notable high right now. Usually when its this high then we see nice drops.
http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-october-8th-2010-4817.html
What happens when you have a high level of confidence in anyone or anything? What happens is that one event usually will scamper that confidence very quickly...
http://www.tradersnarrative.com/sentiment-overview-week-of-october-8th-2010-4817.html
What happens when you have a high level of confidence in anyone or anything? What happens is that one event usually will scamper that confidence very quickly...
little fall in the markets right now 
comment explaining it fill me with joy :
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Bell Potter senior adviser Stuart Smith was optimistic the market would improve throughout the day, however.
"We're probably paying the penalty for being up 20-odd points yesterday, but I think we're just taking 24 paces back so we can having a running jump at 4700," Mr Smith said of the ASX 200.
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comment explaining it fill me with joy :
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Bell Potter senior adviser Stuart Smith was optimistic the market would improve throughout the day, however.
"We're probably paying the penalty for being up 20-odd points yesterday, but I think we're just taking 24 paces back so we can having a running jump at 4700," Mr Smith said of the ASX 200.
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I will give you a strategy for shorting. You want to wait for the 2 bar break below the moving average. Once the average breaksdown by 2 bars then you can get it on the short.
I think all of the conditions and seasonality are aligned for a good fall from here.
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I think all of the conditions and seasonality are aligned for a good fall from here.
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Quote from retaildaytrader:
I will give you a strategy for shorting. You want to wait for the 2 bar break below the moving average. Once the average breaksdown by 2 bars then you can get it on the short.
I think all of the conditions and seasonality are aligned for a good fall from here.
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thanks for this. I will watch it as proof of further strength. My signal already arrived. Problem with this method used as is is that one cant load too much if allocated 5% risk to a trade and have around 10% stop
I am hoping to load larger position using small risk entries but larger size and implant many positions and take partial profits when warranted & reload, etc. If for example current fall turns into above scenario, my bet size will be substantially larger and will be in better position to load/add when time comes. Downside is substantial IMHO, so playing short only, until conviced to be wrong.This is true. In fact, some of these high/low points lasted for years. 10/10/02 was the S&P's low for over 6 years and who knows how long 10/11/07 will last as the all-time high. Many others lasted months or even years (the 2005 and 2008 lows come to mind).
October is definitely the most pivotal month of the year. A somewhat distant second is March (2000 high, 2009 low, etc.)
Not with valuations at current levels.
http://hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc101011.htm
Oh, and tell that to people who have tried to buy-and-hold the Nikkei for the last 20 years. Japan's QE didn't help, either.