the top is in

[NoahA]

I think a lot of people have a negativity bias so they are always looking for the top. The bear case is always rational, the bull case often isn't. The best thing I did was put together a framework that allows me to objectively evaluate market conditions. This is very different from the indicators that I use to actually trade.

Its all FED induced and the market hasn't truly been a free market for quite a while. This to me explains the negative bias, which in my opinion is the correct bias to have, but not enough people appreciate the power and magnitude of this.

Currently there is no way to figure out because it all depends on what the FED will say/do, and then how the market takes it. Its even obvious that the FED is eager to see what the reactions are to their releases, and then they tweak if necessary.

Its a different game now, which is not based fundamentals. The way an average trader figures out their own family finances is not the way that finances now work at the corporate and government levels. So the thought process has to be completely different. You and me worry about monthly expenses and income coming in, but clearly this doesn't matter at the top.

So if you want to call it a negative bias, its at least correct and justified, but the game has changed.

 

[treeman]

any thoughts on what we're seeing today? is the short-tech, long-value trade already over? imho, i think rates will continue higher and the trade isn't over.

Next up, “proves resilient”, followed by “gains speed”

 

[formikatrading]

I agree with most of what you said but there are ways to have get a pretty good idea of what's going on. It took me a long time to figure out what matters and what doesn't. And like I said, I had to step away from my trading indicators and come out with a framework that takes into account the Fed -- and that framework becomes the road map. But even then, you still have to trust it and follow it.

Its all FED induced and the market hasn't truly been a free market for quite a while. This to me explains the negative bias, which in my opinion is the correct bias to have, but not enough people appreciate the power and magnitude of this.

Currently there is no way to figure out because it all depends on what the FED will say/do, and then how the market takes it. Its even obvious that the FED is eager to see what the reactions are to their releases, and then they tweak if necessary.

Its a different game now, which is not based fundamentals. The way an average trader figures out their own family finances is not the way that finances now work at the corporate and government levels. So the thought process has to be completely different. You and me worry about monthly expenses and income coming in, but clearly this doesn't matter at the top.

So if you want to call it a negative bias, its at least correct and justified, but the game has changed.

 

[themickey]

I think a lot of people have a negativity bias so they are always looking for the top. The bear case is always rational, the bull case often isn't. The best thing I did was put together a framework that allows me to objectively evaluate market conditions. This is very different from the indicators that I use to actually trade.

I've had a bullish bias for a long time but I think (maybe) we are seeing a topping action going on atm.
Finding a bargain stock to buy is difficult, the dips are too shallow to consider as buying opportunities imo.
The only bargain is gold and silver but that commodity is speculative more than being a base product and has a reputation for being manipulated imo.
Can any one person 'objectively evaluate market conditions?'
I doubt anyone can do this, but maybe some fat cat sitting with a team in Wall Street can, but not a retail trader.

 

[remoteControl]

I've had a bullish bias for a long time but I think (maybe) we are seeing a topping action going on atm.
Finding a bargain stock to buy is difficult, the dips are too shallow to consider as buying opportunities imo.
The only bargain is gold and silver but that commodity is speculative more than being a base product and has a reputation for being manipulated imo.
Can any one person 'objectively evaluate market conditions?'
I doubt anyone can do this, but maybe some fat cat sitting with a team in Wall Street can, but not a retail trader.

No one is objective. And even if they were, they still wouldn’t have any special insight.

“I think” gold and silver is going to be a surprise outperformed in 2021. I hope my qualifier will stop everyone people from they are a genius for pointing out what I say doesn’t come true.

 

[themickey]

No one is objective. And even if they were, they still wouldn’t have any special insight.

“I think” gold and silver is going to be a surprise outperformed in 2021. I hope my qualifier will stop everyone people from they are a genius for pointing out what I say doesn’t come true.

I am overweight gold last few months and it's created a lot of damage to my otherwise good returns, but holding them because of stubborness.
If they go up it will be a relief, when I sell them, a second relief, not gonna buy gold again - I may as well trade forex or crypto which is another minefield.

 

[formikatrading]

Can you elaborate?

No one is objective. And even if they were, they still wouldn’t have any special insight.

 

[themickey]

Can you elaborate?

The Trump cultists who are very sure of themselves...

 

[remoteControl]

Can you elaborate?

On the first or second part?

 

[HeSaidSheSaid]

Its all FED induced and the market hasn't truly been a free market for quite a while. This to me explains the negative bias, which in my opinion is the correct bias to have, but not enough people appreciate the power and magnitude of this.

Currently there is no way to figure out because it all depends on what the FED will say/do, and then how the market takes it. Its even obvious that the FED is eager to see what the reactions are to their releases, and then they tweak if necessary.

Its a different game now, which is not based fundamentals. The way an average trader figures out their own family finances is not the way that finances now work at the corporate and government levels. So the thought process has to be completely different. You and me worry about monthly expenses and income coming in, but clearly this doesn't matter at the top.

So if you want to call it a negative bias, its at least correct and justified, but the game has changed.

the phrase "Don't fight the FED" was coined by Martin Zweig in his 1970 book ("Winning on Wall Street). That was 40 years ago. That conclusion was from his researches on the markets, so I guess the FED's inducement in the markets has been going for 50 years or more, not something happened recently, ... without the FED acting as an anchor (some sort of like confidence stabilizer), I think we'd see more volatilities and chaos in the markets. big money managers look at the FED for leadership for how to play this musical chair orchestra, ... there's no financial benefit to play out of tune with the FED (no one is rich enough to fight against the FED). Also, there's a safety in herd I think, and that characteristic has been reflected in the market behavior. I think chairman Powell is a cat person. He could be a cat herder