All the energy action was first two hours then TSX went totally listless with some minor selling late in the day. There were some nice gap ups first thing but it wasn't all of them.
the top is in
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All the energy action was first two hours then TSX went totally listless with some minor selling late in the day. There were some nice gap ups first thing but it wasn't all of them.
If you are talking longer term and not intraday, then you are talking nonsense about a top.
Huge beat for Kinross, plus pretty decent guidance. Wish I'd bought even more. It seemed almost like free money but nothing's for sure.
Pretty muted response to Kinross after hours (+2%). I'd think it will go up 10% tomorrow unless we get some sort of broader sell off. Then again, the market hasn't appreciated the stock for months. There was an $11 US target set by Morgan Stanley this morning.
Short futures
I'm too busy playing the Cdn energy bull to care about some broader market top. I've done really well on this trade and the only real mistake I've made so far was falling for the head fake on Nat Gas prices and being extra cautious on Nat Gas company earnings ( which so far have been huge beats and I missed a couple of nice moves ). I think they aren't done so I rebought a couple late last week. And I was unaware that Cdn Nat Gas actually spiked up this month in excess of the international price, which cannot hurt the bottom line either.
In the bigger picture, a lot of these Cdn firms got leaner and reduced debt in 2020. Numerous marginal NA players went out of business due to Covid. So what was once a horrible area to be invested in ( after a huge bear market for years ), it's in a strong recovery now. Hard to price where most of these stocks should be, but a lot of new interest right now.
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And thats great. I own CL and SI and there are a ton of bull markets going on right now. CL into the 90’s would surprise me little. SI in the 50’s the same. But of them all, small caps have the most pent up energy currently being sprung. I’d love to own Bitcoin and copper and nat gas. You can’t own it all. Even PA. I’ve been hovering ~300% leverage for a while now. I’m currently below that. After a couple of pullbacks, that only goes up. You is don’t see too markets like these in your lifetime. The world is risk on.
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I find by trimming on the way up (while staying in) and upping on the way down to be a very viable strategy during markets like these. Buy the pullbacks. But wait to understand the pullback. And only do it on confirmation signals. Bull market rules. Ignore the bears. You’ll know when risk off starts to creep in. It can start anywhere, but junk to t-bills is always a nice spot to look. We are in inning 2 and the score is already 16-0. If the opposition scores a run or two, maybe it’ll get my attention. But if they score 5, I’ll pull the starting pitcher. Gap downs like you mention worry me little. It’s noise.
