the top is in

Bad_Badness said:
RM, Actually, I think the call might still be correct. It is still around the same point. It could turn here and be a double top. Notice the price action between the first top and the bounce. Sorry I was being snarky in an effort to make a point. Apologies.

Also most of my comments are intended to be about the difference between prognosticating, and actionable information. There have been some very good and obvious trades in the last 7 days. And here is another. Going short here with a reasonable stop is probably a good bet for some people.

Lastly, it is not about calling tops, bottoms and being right, it is about trading as it happens. There is a long distance between the two, but people think there is not much difference. The difference is risk management and ultimately P/L

PS: I am short ES now with a stop ready to go. ES overshoots all the time, so it is a bit more tricky.
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haha no prob. I didn't take it personally. I'm still short for what it's worth. I went balls to the wall the week prior, getting my teeth kicked in right now. Either way, I'd do it again. We were wobbling hard, I still see potential for a sell off. But a week like last def makes me wish I didn't have the compulsion to try and short this market...

in any case, many different styles, many different traders. i'm no newb...20+ years.
 
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Bad_Badness said:
Yeah, the bias is UP, IMO. For a short, I would not stay around too long, just enough to get a profit and leave a runner with a tighter stop. Which brings up a good point. Nine-E's trade is a different animal than my ES short. I don't expect to be in for more than a day, for the bulk of the position. Possibly closing out tonight or before the US ET open tomorrow.

Amount one trades, length of time one trades, etc. All these things play into a good trade management. So just calling a top, bottom or even a direction all are differently actionable or NOT actionable, depending upon how one plays the trade, especially the exit.
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To clarify, my approach is a hybrid since this summer when I started actively trading more. I have core holdings and an overlay on top of short term trade ideas. The overlay has become quite large lately because of the strong trend in areas that have high overnight risk, plus I'm taking / rolling over my profits quickly in some stocks. Late last week, I was basically day trading 15-25% of my account rather then take on full overnight risk.

Commodity prices look promising early trading tonight. I try to manage the risk factors without missing out on what has been a premium opportunity in Cdn energy short term. Should know in a few days if gold miners can go on a similar run ( or not ).
 
Nine_Ender said:
To clarify, my approach is a hybrid since this summer when I started actively trading more. I have core holdings and an overlay on top of short term trade ideas. The overlay has become quite large lately because of the strong trend in areas that have high overnight risk, plus I'm taking / rolling over my profits quickly in some stocks. Late last week, I was basically day trading 15-25% of my account rather then take on full overnight risk.

Commodity prices look promising early trading tonight. I try to manage the risk factors without missing out on what has been a premium opportunity in Cdn energy short term. Should know in a few days if gold miners can go on a similar run ( or not ).
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Agree re metals worth a look, I like FCX SLV GDX at new highs and cannabis APHA TLRY GRWG... staying light CGC since earnings out midweek. There's still volatility in GME.

Great point re daytrading vs heavy swings, I'm finding it's best to avoid orb scalping and instead use a slower "buy the open breakouts, tighten stops by 11" approach.

UVXY still holding 10, will aggressively scale in if it clears 11, VIX overdone here in low 20s. Market due for a pullback.
 
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KCalhoun said:
Agree re metals worth a look, I like FCX SLV GDX at new highs and cannabis APHA TLRY GRWG... staying light CGC since earnings out midweek. There's still volatility in GME.

Great point re daytrading vs heavy swings, I'm finding it's best to avoid orb scalping and instead use a slower "buy the open breakouts, tighten stops by 11" approach.
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The golds I like short term : blue chips Kinross before Wednesday and Kirkland Lake; junior / mid caps CXB/CXBMF, Eldorado, New Gold, BTO. The common element is growing earnings no money losers from last quarter. Silver I still like Fortuna because it has Gold exposure, don't trust the others unless Silver smashes $30 ( then I like all of them except Silvercrest ). Energy has been so strong I don't want holds during earnings reports except money makers like pipelines. Gold miners the opposite I want the exposure.
 
at this moment, the signals are telling we're not going to have an economic recession. several catalysts would provide support for this bull market.
SPX broke record high last Friday. Dow futures currently up +175, ES is hitting 3900 level.
Nikkei is trading up 2%,
Shanghai is up 1%
Hong Kong index is up 1%
best indicator of all is NFC team wins super bowl. it means the super bowl indicator predicts market will rise! :) [ok, you gotta give me that one :)

SPX.png
 
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