Yeah, the bias is UP, IMO. For a short, I would not stay around too long, just enough to get a profit and leave a runner with a tighter stop. Which brings up a good point. Nine-E's trade is a different animal than my ES short. I don't expect to be in for more than a day, for the bulk of the position. Possibly closing out tonight or before the US ET open tomorrow.
Amount one trades, length of time one trades, etc. All these things play into a good trade management. So just calling a top, bottom or even a direction all are differently actionable or NOT actionable, depending upon how one plays the trade, especially the exit.
That is why this calling tops and bottoms is so, for lack of a better description, a newbie thing. Sure it can be true or not true, but it is so far from being a successful trader, it is laughable and hence annoying to many. Furthermore, when someone claims some sort of "expertise" or merit as a trader, it sounds more like ego creeping in than experience. (ok now I said it). Sorry if I offended anyone.
Also, I don't want ANYONE here to lose in a trade badly. Sure it happens but I take no joy in it, even if it is just "tuition" to learn. It seems like such silly thing to try and be "better", by making others "worse". But I guess it is how some people operate. The majority here on ET could make good profits and not make much of a dent in the overall financial system.
Below is an excerpt from a Bloomberg article about a hedge fund, from today. Mind you, one has to have over 1 million investable assets to be in a hedge fund. And here is what you can expect to happen sooner or later.
"Billionaire Jim Simons’s firm, a quant-investing pioneer, is coming off a rough year. Its three public hedge funds posted double-digit losses in 2020 as their algorithms were thrown out of whack by market swings the computers had never seen before. At the same time, its fund for employees and insiders
soared 76% last year, Institutional Investor reported."
