the top is in

Just because there are a lot of stories about newbies doing silly things, does not mean it is a top. Although there is a correlation.

Furthermore, how is this actionable? Go 3x short here? Wait for a bounce and then do it? Change your strategies? Develop new ones based on this "top is in"? Does one even have a strategy?

IMO, these type of forum predictions are actually detrimental to traders to follow, worse than helpful. If one does not know why, consider figuring out why one would think so, then reject or accept.

BTW: the Citadel sell off 4 days ago on ES was probably a better indicator of a short term top, and it WAS actionable. As was the 50 EMA bounce.
 
Bad_Badness said:
Just because there are a lot of stories about newbies doing silly things, does not mean it is a top. Although there is a correlation.

Furthermore, how is this actionable? Go 3x short here? Wait for a bounce and then do it? Change your strategies? Develop new ones based on this "top is in"? Does one even have a strategy?

IMO, these type of forum predictions are actually detrimental to traders to follow, worse than helpful. If one does not know why, consider figuring out why one would think so, then reject or accept.

BTW: the Citadel sell off 4 days ago on ES was probably a better indicator of a short term top, and it WAS actionable. As was the 50 EMA bounce.
More...


I trade with conviction. Many times that conviction is wrong. Therefore, I manage risk accordingly. I trade to win. How someone else chooses to express themselves (or not) is up to them. This is a unique market and the classic signs of a bubble top are forming quickly. Hindsight will be 2020, and after a week like we’ve had it doesn’t take much imagination to see what that hindsight might be.
 
destriero said:
That's played and they are trying to get blood from a stone. This isn't a credit/liquidity situation.
More...
plus GOP are now suddenly fiscal hawks so 2T infusion may ultimately not happen

to OP, I thought the top was in 2 yrs ago, then a yr ago as many of my coworkers were swarming & gambling on robinhood but here we are. I'm no permabull but i've given up on the "Kennedy Sr. thesis" that since every shoe shine boy is in, this is surely the top. I do have correction jitters though.
 
RM, There have been several times over the last 3 years where "a top" is forming, just as convincing. Calling a top over and over, eventually one is correct (not you). But having "conviction" with all the other times usually does not make up for the one correct time that eventually happens. Your "risk management", will go a long way to NOT making it a negative P/L. And that is the point, a trade setup is only part of the trading.

That being said, having several "tops" not be tops, is usually precursor to the actual top. My point is not about your trading or your abilities. I am sure you are doing fine or better for your requirements.

Just pointing out how several on ET have called tops or bottoms. People are searching for trading opportunities. Although this may be one, integrating it into ones trading is another story. Hence how is this action-able for you?

PS: for me, all this means is a more directional bias, until is switches. Also increase volatility to be manage and traded appropriately.

PPS: I was going to mention the shoeshine story from the 29' crash. Interesting, I have not heard of other stories about the final melt down in 34'
 
Here4money said:
plus GOP are now suddenly fiscal hawks so 2T infusion may ultimately not happen

to OP, I thought the top was in 2 yrs ago, then a yr ago as many of my coworkers were swarming & gambling on robinhood but here we are. I'm no permabull but i've given up on the "Kennedy Sr. thesis" that since every shoe shine boy is in, this is surely the top. I do have correction jitters though.
More...

there is a quote somewhere from PTJ when asked about being so good at picking turns, confessing that all he does is try it over and over, or to that effect. eventually he gets it right.

the market feels particularly wobbly to me and the warning signs are flashing everywhere.
 
Bad_Badness said:
RM, There have been several times over the last 3 years where "a top" is forming, just as convincing. Calling a top over and over, eventually one is correct (not you). But having "conviction" with all the other times usually does not make up for the one correct time that eventually happens. Your "risk management", will go a long way to NOT making it a negative P/L. And that is the point, a trade setup is only part of the trading.

That being said, having several "tops" not be tops, is usually precursor to the actual top. My point is not about your trading or your abilities. I am sure you are doing fine or better for your requirements.

Just pointing out how several on ET have called tops or bottoms. People are searching for trading opportunities. Although this may be one, integrating it into ones trading is another story. Hence how is this action-able for you?

PS: for me, all this means is a more directional bias, until is switches. Also increase volatility to be manage and traded appropriately.

PPS: I was going to mention the shoeshine story from the 29' crash. Interesting, I have not heard of other stories about the final melt down in 34'
More...

fair enough. I don’t know why anyone would listen to me any more than they would listen to any other random post. I’m just calling it like I see and I wish everyone luck.
 
The vol is doing good lately.
And this is a good sign for day traders.
If you can make mony in a low vol market, you'll just be able to do even more when the vol is rising.

I love those types of market....
 
Disclaimer, and about to say something obvious: I definitely don't know as I've been in the group of suckers that have been calling tops since 2014, the latest of which 2020 COVID.

A top might be in, not necessarily not THE top. While is this really the first major one I'm actively trading along in, my understanding is markets get more and more volatile as they climb higher into the air (long having left the ground), with big shakeouts along the way.

The nice part is, you can set up a trade for a top much the same as you set up a trade for the top, just need to get the exit strategy right for when you're entirely wrong (no top) and when you're partially wrong (a top). Being fully right ahead of time is not necessary for successful trading, you just need to recognize when the tables are tilted in your favor.
 
SunTrader said:
We should have a good idea of what's to come after tomorrow's night globex open or latest end of Monday's trading.
More...

Nah, the Sunday open is never indicative of the following NY open with any reliability. There's too much slack. I will be calling for a major gap down though, because there is a black swan happening, and that is Reddit. I should know this, for I am long in the index. My word is my bond, and I am always right. We are looking at a March 2020 forming. This time, however, it's going to sting worse.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top