CL tick value - $10
ZB tick value - $31.25
from what side Bonds cheaper?
The top 3 guys who make over 1 million a year at my firm...
- Thread starter s0mmi
- Start date
CL tick value - $10
ZB tick value - $31.25
from what side Bonds cheaper?
Also,no matter what you trade is all the momentum trading.Bonds and equity indicies just designed for a bigger size,that is,there is no difference if you trade 10 GC contracts or 20 ES contracts.You can blow it either way.s0mmi,you mix things up,your biased.
>> Yes. You are right...
>> The biggest (by far) individual we know of trades cash bonds as well as futures etc. I think when he gets bored, or whatever, he just goes into the cash bonds. He is single handedly taking on institutions such as ASX200 listed Australian Banks and other investment banks in the country.
Yes it's interesting and we know nothing about it. I think there is no real ladder but instead a bloomberg terminal. Also, I think you need to back yourself with $10m-$15m cash since there's no leverage you're trading cash deliverable coupon payments straight from the Government...
Unfortunately in this job you never get enough time to spend with those who you really want to.
>> On another note, I hope what I share on this forum is some insight. Nothing sh*ts me more than people who give short sentences & leave out detail, somehow pretending like they're a guru who sh*ts gold and therefore we are graceful just to witness whatever they say.
Nothing turns me off more than the vague, half zen-like trading rules or advice you hear. It's the biggest fallacy.
"Sometimes... you need to not add to a losing position."
"Sometimes... the market will come to you."
"Sometimes... you need to do the opposite of what worked last time."
Behind every 'trading rule' or 'advice' you here, is a multitude of experiences and formulations that went into it that we cannot possibly fathom unless we experience getting hit in the face over and over again. One guy in the Market Wizards who was like nearing his 50's said "it took me 10 years to realise what 'the trend is your friend' meant".
>> In an industry where information is really scarce, I want to find and observe hard evidence. I'm not battling it out here based on luck/faith/hope when it comes to the trading strategies I learn. Perhaps the career path has some faith, but no-one cares about that anyway.
I've just realised it's been 24 hours since I woke up. I've been up all night trapped.
These posts really are straight from the battlegrounds. I see what the best are doing and I take note of it. I didn't want to come in here and say "screw what everyone else does, I'm going to be the next king." instead I patiently watched and learned from everyone. Some of the newest/lowest level trainees have taught me great things. They're sometimes confused why I keep asking them questions because they feel pathetic as I do 10 times their clip-size but I'm bowing down to them.
It pays to be humble in this job.
>> If you guys have a good stable and secure job, then keep it.
And now it's time to nap.
lol...so as one Olympian box champ once said he was 20 years in the sports and then he suddenly got what the proper left hook was while leaving his appartment one day.
You see,you can still get the gold,even if you do something not quite properly.And even if you concentrate on a single idea.I noticed that many champs ,world class actually have a strabismus of some sort.I wonder if the tunnel vision in trading either could possibly be of any benefit.
You see,you can still get the gold,even if you do something not quite properly.And even if you concentrate on a single idea.I noticed that many champs ,world class actually have a strabismus of some sort.I wonder if the tunnel vision in trading either could possibly be of any benefit.
>> I'm biased because of all my friends who are most successful, they all learn to average slowly/collect regions of interest. With gold/oil/commodities it seem that they shoot off one way and averaging seems a bit crazy and out of my league because I'm not familiar with them.
>> I just personally believe if you are a 1-click in and 1-click out trader than you are limited, one-dimensional, and lack the fire extinguishing tools you might be able to gather if you were able to trade something that didn't necessarily punish you for collecting more contracts in a small region and allowing you to scale out.
Of course you can do this in any market, but with a limited amount of $10k-$20k I just think bonds would be more comfortable.
thanks for your opinion.
what makes it harder for you to collect commodities in a more broader manner.just collect it outside 2-3 std dv,and it`d be pretty much the same as you do with bonds on a couple of points range.i can`t see the difference.
maybe you can do a chart with example of what your talking about.i`d be greatly appreciated!
again,it`s all relative.1 click and 1 click out with FDAX or SI,for e.g.,may be well worth it a dozen clicks with bonds.
i`d also be curious to find out more about the 'fire extinguishing tools' you speak.shall we?though i`m not a newbie,it`s always great to learn something more from more experienced.
>> You seem more planned/mathematical than the average trainee who would walk in and trade. You are aware of the standard deviation measures and the tick distances. Most people would just watch it go really far on a chart and just average because it's gone far.
I guess it doesn't matter what you trade. Also my bias with bonds is that I'm 100% on track with fundamental news, data, and what's going on around the world. My information edge would be diminished in commodities. I wouldn't just fade an oil spike where-as sometimes in the U.S. Tnotes it will sell-off (panic mode) expecting good data, then the good data comes, so it would end up being a fade/good chance for institutions to cover... that's something I would understand more cleanly.
If you really have your strengths in commodities then stick with it and try to build an account for a bigger buffer.
Quote from Rorschach_test:
CL tick value - $10
ZB tick value - $31.25
from what side Bonds cheaper?
>> You're quoting the most volatile of all bonds.. the 30-year T-Bond. Look @ ZN, or FV (U.S. 10yr Note, or U.S. 5-year note). They are less flicky, more rigid.
>> This is just a generic term I made up because it's exactly what most of the job is.
Even if you are the best 'idea guy' in the world. You still need to execute it. There is a 100% chance you will run into heated situations when trading.
Sometimes your market goes unexpectedly far, very fast against you. Sometimes, it's 1-tick away from filling your profit, comes back for scratch, then starts floating offside...
There's lots of scenarios. The more you trade and the more experience you gather, the better you are at handling these. This is what I mean by 'applying yourself'. All the greats 'know what to do'.
Here's some specific *tools* that I gathered over time that I would like to teach my younger self:
-> If it starts to run against you hard, just patiently wait... wait... wait for it to stop. Then average half-size and place limit orders to scale out for a scratch/or small loss
-> If you are trying to leg a spread price, give it 60-seconds. If it doesn't fill you, just pay up at market. If it keeps running away from you, just pay up with half-size at market and then continue waiting to see what the market gives you
-> If you're not feeling comfortable about your size/pnl and a data figure is coming out, get half out before the figure.
These are just some very basic things... the more you actually go through really bad scenarios where the market seems rigged against you, the more lessons your learn.
I also dream (seriously) about the worst-case scenarios for my strategy. "What am I going to do... if this leg auctions extremely high and opens first?... how do I play the spread?". I find this helps tremendously. No strategy is full-proof. Ever.
I have run through scenarios and made plans over and over about "what i need to do incase scenario A, B or C happens". You still get really nervous of course. No amount of planning can stop the nerves. You got the barrel of a gun pointed at you... one slip and it's over.
What separates everyone in this job isn't the normal periods where everyone rides the waves together of good/average/bad market periods. It's how you handle things that get really, really, really messy.
It's what you do when the pressure really heats up. It's the worst feeling in the world but that's the price we pay for clicking computer buttons in hopes of making millions of dollars.
Sometimes what I do is ask a head trader some "what if scenarios." Like... "What if you came to enter a spread, but got legged..." and he would systematically outline the variables he'd look for, level regions, size entry, willingness to pay up etc.
Then I would ask things like, "What if it goes one way really really really hard for the entire night and finishes on its low." and he would talk about trying to be aggressive somewhere, and if it doesn't work in an hour, getting all of it out, then waiting again, and keep trying... then waiting for a specific time... or trying to lean on an outright leg more. Everyones got their own 'tools'.
You start to learn from others what the possible 'options are' if you are caught in deep water.
One of the biggest guys at our firm told us that he lost 1-years worth of income during the GFC.... but then made it back in 6-months.
Imagine trading for 15-20 years then losing a years worth of income like that in ONE TRADE? He is a true battler. Amazing to hear that. You can always come back if you fight for it.
That's an extreme case of fire-extinguishing.
the biggest guy probably was lacking the samples,and waited far more then he shoulda to.from my experience,the worst case scenario is not far then a couple of days,assuming the regular market regime.
it seems to me more and more from your posts that those guys are still some random shooters,who back up their random decisions with the buckets of money they have.
it seems to me more and more from your posts that those guys are still some random shooters,who back up their random decisions with the buckets of money they have.