The time 2 buy is now big rally coming

[makloda]

Quote from stock_trad3r:
people arent going to let stocks get too cheap cause

I am not saying stocks can't go much higher it's always a question of supply and demand, but they are certainly not "CHEAP" as everybody on bubblevision is claiming. Little reality check there, buddy:

"The current P/E ratio is higher than 95% of all monthly observations in the past 35 years. And remember, this is occurring on peak profit margins. If you use long-term average profit margins, the median stock trades closer to 25 times normalized profits. So, again, that's not very cheap.

In fact, the actual current median valuation is much higher than it was in the fall of 2000. In October of that year, with the S&P 500 at 26 times earnings, the median P/E ratio of the largest 3,000 companies was only 14.0. At the last secular market top, the average stock was much cheaper than it is today!" Source: http://www.thestreet.com/_kirk/newsanalysis/investing/10340683_2.html

 

[lauriston]

I still think we are in a bounce that is going to fail just looking at the low volumes this week. I was hoping for a big sell-off today, but markets look extremely boring today and flat. I keep saying "maybe tomorrow" and it hasn't happened yet. Maybe early next week we get the big drop part Deux! Fridays have tended to be boring for the last 2 years http://lauristonletter.blogspot.com/

 

[S2007S]

imagine if this job number came in around 50,000, would be an easy 1%+ selloff today.


Im going to keep repeating myself, 12,000 is coming. I think we need one more hard sell off. 12,000 will come and if we do drop below 12,000, the market should settle around 11700-11800 area.

 

[frank grimes]

Come on Makloda, according to our resident guru, stocktr3r, there are no such things as peak earnings, slowing consumer spending, inflation, deflation, terrorists, wars, or for that matter anything negative. The mkt discounts ALL news positively. The mkt did not go down last week, 4% just went on spring break. Those cats bouncing off the sidewalk are not dead at all, they are alive and well, just not breathing for the moment. Sell puts, buy calls its a bull mkt that will never end, because there are no such things as cycles anymore!

 

[ByLoSellHi]

Quote from S2007S:

imagine if this job number came in around 50,000, would be an easy 1%+ selloff today.


Im going to keep repeating myself, 12,000 is coming. I think we need one more hard sell off. 12,000 will come and if we do drop below 12,000, the market should settle around 11700-11800 area.

I have entered long trades this past week.

But every single one of them have to do with inflexible, non-discretionary goods or services (e.g. oil refining) or commodity demand in other areas of the world (metals in Asia or South America).

I ridded my portfolio of nearly everything consumer discretionary.

I am convinced the U.S. consumer is finally dead. If it isn't gasoline, cigarettes or Bud Light, they aren't going to be buying more if it now than they did the last 4 years. The housing market and mortgage purchase/refi (i.e. using the house as an ATM) game is over.

Companies with steady cash flow and a huge global footprint, selling 'real stuff' like iron ore and distillate, are where you want to be.

 

[S2007S]

Quote from ByLoSellHi:

I have entered long trades this past week.

But every single one of them have to do with inflexible, non-discretionary goods or services (e.g. oil refining) or commodity demand in other areas of the world (metals in Asia or South America).

I ridded my portfolio of nearly everything consumer discretionary.

I am convinced the U.S. consumer is finally dead. If it isn't gasoline, cigarettes or Bud Light, they aren't going to be buying more if it now than they did the last 4 years. The housing market and mortgage purchase/refi (i.e. using the house as an ATM) game is over.

Companies with steady cash flow and a huge global footprint, selling 'real stuff' like iron ore and distillate, are where you want to be.

Only long trade I made this week was QLD at 77.90, sold out around 79, Missed the run to 80 but not worried since it has come back down below 78.

Also shorted EWZ a few times, made .40 in about an hour. Covered at 46.21.


If we get a hard sell off into the close I wouldnt want to be holding over the weekend. I think they will end in the green though.

 

[stock_trad3r]

Quote from frank grimes:

Come on Makloda, according to our resident guru, stocktr3r, there are no such things as peak earnings, slowing consumer spending, inflation, deflation, terrorists, wars, or for that matter anything negative. The mkt discounts ALL news positively. The mkt did not go down last week, 4% just went on spring break. Those cats bouncing off the sidewalk are not dead at all, they are alive and well, just not breathing for the moment. Sell puts, buy calls its a bull mkt that will never end, because there are no such things as cycles anymore!

Those factors you listed do exist but they aren't a big deal. Bears liekto overblow them but most are subject to interpretation and anre't concrete threats. Just vaguities.

 

[makloda]

Quote from stock_trad3r:Bears liekto overblow them but most are subject to interpretation and anre't concrete threats. Just vaguities.

hahaha Man you're a far better bear argument killer than myself!!!! GO GET 'EM TIGER!!!

 

[makloda]

Quote from stock_trad3r:
There will probaby be a 1% rally today easily and another 2% by end of week

Recommend

goog, ma, chap, tie, aapl, amr, rimm, bidu, gs

Congrats again on this awesome call you made. Bears got killed into the opening it was a thing of beauty!!!

Here's a pic of myself and stock_trad3r that we took right by the time of the closing bell today

 

[makloda]

Quote from stock_trad3r:
there is tons of earnings and revenue

What a great call you made bro. I think there is no reason for pessimism while the margin and earnings trend is clearly up. It almost feels like we're entering some new type of economy of infinite earnings growth!!!!!!!!!! LET'S NOT LET THE PERMA BEARS GET TO US!!! PLENTY OF MONEY TO BE MADE WITH 100% UP ROOM TO GO!!!