The things I learned

> The truth is, simple statistics, Monte Carlo simulation and a little bit of Python is all you need. Simple assumptions well simulated and validated can spot over-priced and under-priced bids and asks, that’s it. The fancy models are good for your ego and general understanding. In markets, a CS 101 probability and statistics is good enough for a profitable strategy.

Nice.
 
No way this guy is trading for one year. Maybe that particular strategy, but he must have been around trading for a while. When I started reading I thought he was @fan27 :)
 
nooby_mcnoob said:
> The truth is, simple statistics, Monte Carlo simulation and a little bit of Python is all you need. Simple assumptions well simulated and validated can spot over-priced and under-priced bids and asks, that’s it. The fancy models are good for your ego and general understanding. In markets, a CS 101 probability and statistics is good enough for a profitable strategy.

Nice.
More...

That's a typical "survivorship bias" point of view.

If you pick the 1 in 10,000 survivor of the "get over that trench and finish them!" strategy which runs this world, then yes, a CS 101 is all it takes to follow his exact steps under the exact, non-reproducible circumstances.

That's a valid view from the top, the powerful, the ones who've got the money and / or / or+and power to send 10,000,000 stupids to die in the field.

That's as far from my 99.99% probability of survival on the wrong side of the dick field as an alien can so far be in this world.
 
But, truth is I'm 99.99% more likely one of the monkeys who will die without leaving a trace than the 0.00235788585% worth of extra edge of survival I'm getting from the advice of "stop drinking".

That extra edge though works very well for the masters, God burn their soul. Before they increase the 10,000,000 quota of losers with 2x the edge required to score another win for these fuckers.
 
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